Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via FlickrIt is perfectly accurate to note that the US and China have a uniquely symbiotic relationship, that they will soon be the two largest national economies, and that many important global problems such as climate change cannot be solved without them.
Yet none of these facts implies a Sino-American world order is a viable or a desirable outcome. Logic and evidence suggest the opposite.Both declining forces, like Europe and Japan, and other upcoming new economies like Brazil and India will be playing a role in the near future:
More important, a G2 construct does not obviously serve US or Chinese interests. In spite of its growth, China remains far weaker than the US in economic, political and military power. Its interest lies in not being a permanent junior partner in a global duumvirate but in working to build multilateral arrangements that will constrain US power.More at the Financial Times.
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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your conference or meeting, do get in touch.
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1 comment:
To Arthur Kroeber:
While you are correct that a "condominium" between China and the US is not a practical notion, that isn't really what the idea of a G2 represents. It is not about a US-China alliance, which is what you seem to suggest. Rather, to me it simply means that many of the key global economic and financial challenges that we face cannot be effectively addressed without a consensus between the US and China about what needs to be done and how to proceed. Yes, the other countries you mention are important and they do matter. But without US-China agreement, the rest can't mobilize the leadership to address these challenges. This doesn't require an historic new political and ideological consensus between the US and China; it simply requires a recognition by both the US and China that their pragmatic,, long-term economic and financial interests increasingly cannot be achieved without close collaboration on solutions.
Cheers,
Mikkal Herberg
BP Foundation Senior Research Fellow on International Energy
Pacific Council on International Policy
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