First, the value of the export for China's growth has always been overestimated, writes Kroeber.
Aside from the roll-over in exports, China's second important turning point is a bit further off, but is no less crucial. For the entire three decades of China's reform era, the dependency ratio--the ratio of people of non-working age to those of working age--has been falling, from a high of around 80 dependents per 100 workers in the mid-1970s, to under 40 today.
As in the other high-growth Asian economies before, a falling dependency ratio resulted in a higher saving rate, which enabled large investments, and an abundant labor force, which kept wages low. By 2015 at the latest, this ratio will start to rise because of the aging population, and the "demographic dividend" will turn into a demographic tax. The saving rate will begin to come down, the labor market will get tighter, and real wages will start to rise more sharply. A tighterCommercial
labor market and upward wage pressures were already in evidence by 2007, and will re-appear quite soon once the impact of last year's financial crisis fades.
Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your conference, do let us know.
1 comment:
When the western world and Japan went through the same process the China is going through now - converting under-employed, less productive rural workers to productive manufacturers, miners and laborers - the western world had a long period of continuing lowering of the dependent cohorts. China, with its one child policy, reduced the period of lowering of dependency ratio. After the conversion of all available rural workers in the west, the west turned to other ways to increase productivity through innovation, which is still a competitive advantage for the west. Whether China can have a long period of high economic growth depends on whether China can innovate after all available rural workers are converted, and whether the pollution will exhaust the land before China can use technology as a competitive advantage.
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