Sunday, November 28, 2010

Preparing for a rough 2011

Official portrait of Federal Reserve Chairman ...Fed chairman Bernanke via Wikipedia
(My intro for the China Speakers Bureau newsletter for December)
The story that China might save the global economy has been effectively debunked. If China is ever going to save the global economy, it might be in another decade. Now the problems of the global economy are too big, and China has still a modest economy, considering the number of inhabitants.
Nevertheless, most of our speakers at the China Speakers Bureau tended to be on the bullish side, when they analyzed China’s economic development. The economy keeps on growing, consumption goes up, the people are happy. Still, we noted in the past few months an undercurrent of caution, not only because of the inflation of food products and a hot real estate sector.
Even Shaun Rein, the most noted bull in our stable, came out to warn US investors not to buy into another China internet bubble. CEIBS economist Wang Jianmao warned that only a slowdown of the economy in China could create an opportunity to restructure China into a consumer-oriented economy.
The always-cautious Arthur Kroeber warns that the economic systems of both China and the US are running out of steam. The US economy might, after announcing it will pump 600 billion US dollar into its economy, not have that many options left to support its economy. And of course analysts like Shaun Rein accused Fed chairman Bernanke the US was manipulating its currency.
Europe might not yet be out of steam, as countries - apart from perhaps Germany - face diminishing budgets and prolonged economic trouble. The crisis that has hit the United States last year midships, seems only now to be taking a real toll on Europe’s economy. Compared to other large economies, and the misgivings of some of our speakers, China seems to be one of the more stable economic powers.
China's reliance on export might have diminished over the past decade from 40 to 20 percent of its GDP. That 20 percent might get a full hit too.
Post a Comment