China consumer sentiment: modest improvement noted – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

After a lackluster start of 2024, consumer expert Ben Cavender sees a modest improvement in consumer sentiment in China, he tells Reuters. He said some companies were thinking about how to grow their business in China again after years of holding off on investing, which was helping sentiment to improve.

Reuters:

Other analysts said the spending data could be a turning point, as consumption in China has struggled to recover since the lifting of COVID curbs, weighed down by a property market downturn, high youth unemployment and concerns over job security amid an economic slowdown.

“Our sense is that there is a small but growing sentiment within white collar jobs that the market situation is improving and this is also leading to greater willingness to spend,” said Ben Cavender, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group.

He said some companies were thinking about how to grow their business in China again after years of holding off on investing, which was helping sentiment to improve.

In February, average spending per trip during the Lunar New Year holiday, one of the biggest holidays, fell 9.5% versus 2019 according to Reuters calculations based off government data, prompting analysts to say that “consumption downgrading” was still happening.

More in Reuters.

Ben Cavender is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China: manoeuvering between local debts and slowing revenue – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Financial expert Victor Shih looks at the dilemma China faces as local debts run out of hand, while revenue is dropping, and consumer confidence is low, at a panel discussion at the Ray School of Management at the UC San Diego.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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No quick fixes for China’s economy – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein dives deeper into the China economy as consumer confidence in first-tier cities is lower than he has seen in 27 years and the government’s economic targets focus on the next 3-5 years, he tells CNBC. The government is unwilling and unable to rely on stiff financial bazookas as it did in the previous crisis of 2008. Economic growth of 5 percent is enough for the government now, as it wants to diminish the gap between haves and have-nots, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China’s demographic timebomb – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s aging population is leaving the labor force while dropping consumer confidence discourages youngsters from marrying or having children. Business analyst Shaun Rein tells Reuters the country is heading for a demographic disaster, and raising the pension age is one inevitable measure the government should take.

Reuters:

A record low birth rate in 2023 and a wave of health crisis-related deaths resulted in a second consecutive year of population decline, accelerating concerns about China’s demographic downturn.

Large groups of the 1.4 billion people living in the world’s second-largest economy will exit the labor pool and age past a prime period of their lives for consumption, exacerbating structural imbalances that policymakers have vowed to address.

“The world should be worried about China’s economic slowdown. It’s going to impact the profits of the world’s largest companies. When Chinese consumers are cutting back on their spending, that’s going to impact the Starbucks, the Nike’s, the Apples of the world,” Rein told Reuters.

More – including a video – at Reuters.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How is China’s comeback working out – Shaun Rein/Ashley Dudarenok

Shaun Rein and Ashley Dudarenok

Business analyst Shaun Rein is interviewed by marketing guru Ashley Dudarenok on the most recent developments, as consumer confidence in China is slowly recovering at the end of 2023. But because of the ongoing trouble with the US, and because US firms fear more counterproductive measures by US President Biden, there are still many bears on the road to economic recovery. China focuses more on domestic companies, as US companies retreat, and the global south turns decisively to China for support, he says.

Both Shaun Rein and Ashley Dudarenok at speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need either of them at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the US-China trade war? Do check out this list.

Why China consumers go for cheap during Single’s Day – Shaun Rein

 

Single’s Day (11/11) used to be the heyday for China’s consumerism, but this year the consumers went for the cheap stuff, says business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Low consumer confidence forced the e-commerce platforms for the whole year to discount products, but Single’s Day was the cheapest event ever for consumers. Alibaba is losing its shine to newer platforms, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumer experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Cautious optimism about China’s economy in 2024 – Shaun Rein

 

China’s economy looks better for 2024, says business analyst Shaun Rein, as multinationals are moving back their investments to China away from other destinations. Both consumer confidence and real estate are still in bad shape, but sentiments are moving in the right direction, he says at CNBC, despite the geopolitical tensions with the US.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why consumer confidence in China is down – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Geopolitical tensions and the crisis in real estate have hurt consumer confidence over the past 18 months, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at ABC. He does not expect a big-scale stimulus, since the government is short of money to spend, but a slow recovery of retail is emerging, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumer experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Confidence in China is low, and getting even lower – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Confidence among consumers and investors in China’s economy is at a low and even getting lower in the coming weeks, says business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC. Even a firm financial stimulus from the government like in the past is not going to work, as shortage of liquidity is not the real problem.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on consumption at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

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Still low confidence, but prospects better in two-to-three months – Shaun Rein

 

Confidence among consumers and investors is still low, but Shanghai-based analyst Shaun Rein sees some light at the end of the tunnel. Liquidity is not a problem, but both consumers and investors are still careful in spending their money for the next two, three months, he tells CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Consumer confidence might be down, but not for the rich – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Consumer confidence in China might be down, and massive youth unemployment hurts the economy, but not for all consumers gloom is the message. Marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok sees prospects for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) – compared to the middle class – within the luxury market, she tells in the Jing Daily.

The Jing Daily:

As China’s recovery proves to be less robust than initially anticipated, a notable contrast emerges in the spending patterns between high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and the middle class within the luxury market, says Ashley Dudarenok, China digital marketing expert and founder of China digital marketing agency Alarice.

“High-net-worth consumers in China demonstrate a stronger appetite for luxury goods and contribute significantly to the market’s consumption power,” Dudarenok says. “Their purchasing decisions are driven by the desire for status symbols, exclusivity, and a sense of identity. On the other hand, the middle class, facing greater economic pressures and more cautious sentiments, may exhibit more restrained spending behaviors.”…

However, analysts have raised concerns over high youth unemployment in China. A recent Goldman Sachs report revealed that the youth unemployment rate (16-24 year olds) surged to 20.4 percent in April, posing a significant challenge for the country’s economic recovery.

Dudarenok says: “Concerns over youth unemployment may impact the purchasing power and willingness of younger consumers to engage in luxury spending. However, factors such as improving consumer confidence, accumulated savings, and marginal improvements in employment and income can provide some support to the recovery.” …

“Despite the uneven recovery, the Chinese market remains active with the largest consumer base, presenting an opportunity for brands to achieve significant success. Brands should understand Chinese consumer preferences so that they can tailor better their marketing and attract more consumers,” Dudarenok says.

More in the Jing Daily.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Consumer confidence remains low, even with massive festival support – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s consumer confidence remains low, even when its largest e-commerce platforms offer massive support, says business analyst Shaun Rein at the Hill. Rein said that consumers were less likely to spend more during 618 as merchants had already been discounting heavily for years because of the pandemic, and deals were not that much better compared to previous months.

The Hill:

Analysts say that consumption remains soft this year as China emerges from the pandemic, even as platforms including JD.com, Tmall, Taobao and Pinduoduo offered billions in subsidies.

“Chinese consumer confidence remains weak due to a mix of geopolitics, continued weakness from COVID-19 and domestic Chinese politics,” said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group in Shanghai.

Rein said that consumers were less likely to spend more during 618 as merchants had already been discounting heavily for years because of the pandemic, and deals were not that much better compared to previous months.

In March, JD.com launched a “10 billion yuan subsidies” program to compete with rival Pinduoduo, which is known for its low-priced goods. The CEO of Alibaba’s e-commerce business unit, Trudy Dai, also previously pledged to make “huge, historic” investments to attract users to its platforms.

“For months, Chinese consumers have been price-conscious, looking for deals and trading down across most product categories,” Rein said.

More at the Hill.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Economy: improving, but not on track – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein comments on the disappointing figures from Alibaba for CNA. “The economy is improving, but certainly not on track,” he says. While the consumers might be traveling more compared to 2019, they are certainly spending less, as their confidence is low, Rein adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Consumer confidence is down – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s consumers are sitting on excess savings of 6 trillion yuan (US$874 billion), but business analyst Shaun Rein sees consumer confidence is pretty low, and they seem unwilling to spend their savings, he tells the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

For others, the pulse on the ground is less than encouraging. Three years of living with tough zero-Covid restrictions have forced consumers to tighten their purse strings under the pressure and threat of job losses. A persistent downturn on the property market is another hindrance.

“Consumers are trading down and consumption downgrades are going on here,” Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai, said in an interview on Thursday. “People are not sure about the economy and they are still remembering job cuts. Consumer confidence is bad.”

Retail sales fell for a third straight month in December and the combined January and February data will not be released until mid-March because of Lunar New Year seasonal effects. Funds should avoid companies making high-end brands and pick those that cater to the mass market, Rein said.

The South China Morning Post.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China housing market is going to be weak – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein experts the housing market in China is going to get weak as consumers are not buying big-ticket items for the near future, he tells CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China consumer sentiment is slowly improving – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Domestic tourism in China saw a jump, and consumer sentiment is improving more slowly after the zero-Covid policies ended, says consumer expert Ashley Dudarenok at CNBC. Brands are relucted in spending their marketing budgets. Dudarenok said that heading into 2023 and the Lunar New Year, some smaller brands had turned more conservative on China and cut their marketing budgets for the country in half.

CNBC:

More recent data show Chinese consumers are starting to open their wallets again, especially for travel.

During the seven-day Lunar New Year holiday that ended Friday, national tourism revenue surged by 30% from last year to 375.84 billion yuan, according to official figures. But that was still short of 2019 spending.

“Consumer sentiment is better. Spending power is kind of back,” Ashley Dudarenok, founder of China digital consultancy ChoZan, said Friday. “But I don’t think that suddenly from one month to the next things are back … to 2019 or double 2019.”

Dudarenok said that heading into 2023 and the Lunar New Year, some smaller brands had turned more conservative on China and cut their marketing budgets for the country in half.

“Consumer sentiment was really down, nobody knew what was actually coming, and a lot of marketing budget and dollars went into 11.11 [Singles Day] and it was also not successful, so brands did not earn a lot over 11.11” and another shopping festival in December, she said. “Then suddenly China opened. Many people did not expect that [and were] quite startled by this swift development.”

Dudarenok does expect overall consumer trends to continue, whether it’s people in larger cities spending more “on feeling better” or people in smaller cities paying for higher-quality products.

Many analysts expect high levels of savings among Chinese consumers during the pandemic will translate to greater spending this year.

At the policymaker level, Chinese authorities say they’re prioritizing consumption. Premier Li Keqiang led the first post-holiday executive meeting of the State Council on Saturday, and “called for efforts to expedite consumption recovery and keep foreign trade and investment stable,” according to a readout. The meeting said policies to promote the consumption of cars and other big-ticket items would be “fully implemented.”

More at CNBC.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumer experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

How Apple suffers from China's downturn - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Apple was already losing ground to domestic mobile phone makers, but the economic downturn and patriotism towards Huawei will make the US giant even more vulnerable, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to the BBC.

BBC:

In the view of Shanghai-based Shaun Rein, Tim Cook is right to blame China. The founder of the China Market Research Group tells us he is very worried about the state of the Chinese economy: "It's the absolute worst I've seen in the 20 years I've been in China. Everything has really stalled in the last quarter." 

And he says that fall in consumer confidence, coupled with the growing trade war with the United States, has made people more nationalistic about the phones they buy. 

"There's a lot of pride in buying Chinese products made by Chinese for Chinese. After the United States got Canada to arrest the CFO of Huawei that caused a lot of Chinese to be angry. And so a lot of Chinese consumers in a show of patriotism are saying let's not buy Apple let's buy Huawei and show support for the Chinese state." 

Even if those trade tensions ease, it is hard to see Chinese phone buyers turning back to Apple in large numbers now the spell has been broken.

More at the BBC. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on luxury goods at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Trade war might hit Single's Day - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

China is in the middle of the 10th Single's Day, a very successful shopping holiday. But both the US-China trade war and the drop in stock markets might hit the most optimistic expectations as consumer confidence drops, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

This year, more merchants affiliated with Alibaba and consumers outside China are expected to join in the festivities. Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary Lazada Group will hold for the first time Singles’ Day promotions across Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, according to Alibaba. 

Marketplaces like Zalora, Shopee and Expedia are offering consumers in markets like Singapore discounts if they shop on the platforms during the Singles’ Day period.

However, recent China-US trade tensions and a weak stock market have battered consumer confidence, according to Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group. 

“Sales from Double 11 are still going to grow, but not as much as before,” Rein said, adding that many brands are likely to have to offer deeper discounts this year to encourage consumer spending. 

But Rein acknowledged that Singles’ Day has changed global strategies for retail brands.

“10 years ago, Singles’ Day was still a minor event, and brands were focused on promotions for the Lunar New Year,” he said. 

“Now Singles’ Day is a bonanza – it’s Christmas Day, Boxing Day and Black Friday all wrapped into one. It’s not just for singles any more, it’s for everyone, offering everything from cheap items to big-ticket purchases.”

More in the South China Morning Post.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more strategic analysts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.