Taiwan defense cuts no big deal - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Taiwan has announced cuts in its defense budget, making it tougher to upgrade its aging fleet of F-16's, writes the Asia Sentinel. But defense analyst Wendell Minnick are unlikely to influence the island's security, or even the quality of its F-16's.

The Asia Sentinel:

Wendell Minnick, the Taipei-based Asia bureau chief of the authoritative industry magazine Defense News said concerns that the budget cuts had grave repercussions for the island's security must be taken with a pinch of salt. It’s not clear, he said, whether Taiwan's aging F-16s could even handle the more powerful engines. 

“If [the feasibility study finds it is] possible to fit them, Taiwan can then decide whether they want them or not.” 

Taiwan, Minnick said, doesn’t have to buy everything immediately in the first budget plan. It can opt to procure missiles and other items at a later date. 

“This is very normal. The budget announcement does not at all mean they can't afford the whole package or they don't want the whole package. Many of the items in the FMS [Foreign Military Sales] release were optional. Like a candy store where your mom tells you that you can get all the candy on the third row – but you can't really afford it all at that moment or don't see a need for it at that moment. You can come back later.” 

Also in regards of the satellite-guided smart bombs, known as JDAMs, which would enable the F-16s to strike Chinese ports and coastal military installations without exposing themselves recklessly to PLA air defenses, Minnick says the Taiwanese “were offered three types of JDAMs, so they may not want all the types, or one or two types. Also, some in the US air force want foreign countries to buy a lot of a certain items because it lowers the overall price of it for themselves.”

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Read more on Wendell Minnick and China's defense issues at Storify.

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Taiwan F-16 ban might cost US economy US$1 trillion - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

The decision by the US administration to ban the sale of F-16's to Taiwan might cost the US economy US$1 trillion, according to a US analysis, writes defense expert Wendell Minnick in Defense News. Taiwan lobbyists find here new ammunition against the ban.

Wendell Minnick:

Stephen Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) conducted the analysis. 

"Our analysis reveals bleak outcomes for both the defense industry and the economy as a whole if the budget sequestration trigger is pulled and $1 trillion is cut from defense," Fuller said. 

"Dr. Fuller and EMSI's study shows the dramatic and devastating impact these cuts would have not only on our industry but on the economy at large," AIA President and CEO Marion Blakey said. "We cannot add .6 percent to the current 9.1 percent rate of unemployment. It would devastate the economy and the defense industrial base and undermine the national security of our country," she said. The report does not mention Taiwan or F-16 fighter production, but it does conclude from an overall analysis that 1 million U.S. jobs would be at risk and the gross domestic product could be lowered by 25 percent for 2013 if the U.S. defense budget sustained the current cuts being proposed.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Upgrade F-16's "vital for Taiwan", write US officials - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Seven retired US air force officials urged in a letter for an upgrade of Taiwan's F-16 as "vital for Taiwan to defend itself and restore balance in the Taiwan Strait", defense specialist Wendell Minnick writes in Defense News. In Defense News:

The letter was addressed to Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a member of the Armed Services Committee; and Robert Menendez, D-N.J., of the Foreign Relations Committee. They introduced the Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act (TAMA) on Sept. 12. It was signed by retired generals David Deptula, Michael Dunn, John Loh, William Looney, Lester Lyles and Lloyd Newton, and former Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne... 

"It is our assessment that the sale of F-16C/D aircraft to Taiwan will significantly help to restore the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, increase stability in the region, and decrease the likelihood that the United States will one day have to intervene in a military action between China and Taiwan," said the letter.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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No new F-16's, but possibly upgrade for Taiwan - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

President Barack Obama has to strike a balance on one lingering problem: is Taiwan getting its new F-16's or not. Defense expert Wendell Minnick believes Taiwan might get an upgrade, but no new F'16's, possibly jeopardizing Sino-US relations he tells M&Q.

Analysts described any new sale of F-16s as a red line for China, which the US sees as a crucial economic partner. Washington hopes not to upset Beijing as it did in January 2010 with the approval of a 6.4-billion-US-dollar arms package for Taiwan.

US President Barack Obama might decline the request for 66 new fighters but offer to upgrade the existing F-16 fleet, said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief with the Defense News weekly. The US wants to help Taiwan, he said, because the island is a 'pivot point' for control over the militarily sensitive South China Sea.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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