Showing posts with label Hu Jintao. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hu Jintao. Show all posts

Friday, October 24, 2014

Analysts confused on China´s growth forecasts - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu
+Sara Hsu 
The recent predictions on China´s economic development could not have been more different. The Conference Board predicts gloom. The Asia Society finds China is ready for sweeping reforms. Our financial analyst Sara Hsu see slower growth, but also room for reforms, she writes in the Diplomat.

Sara Hsu:
It appears as unlikely that China will maintain growth levels of 10 percent as that it will maintain growth levels below 5 percent in the coming decade, since the Chinese style of pragmatic experimentation has worked for more than thirty years. Although there is uncertainty in the air, it would be a mistake to underestimate China’s ability to rally its policy organs to implement change. The fact that China was able to transform from a virtually closed, impoverished nation to one of the most successful exporting nations in the world, and from a country that altogether rejected the private economy to one with a “market economy with Chinese characteristics” demonstrates the ongoing capacity of the state to alter the fundamental nature of the economy. 
Certainly, analysts who question China’s ability to continue its dramatic reform process point to the lackluster leadership of Hu Jintao. Hu was viewed as an anti-reformist fearful of social instability aroused by change. However, Xi put forth a strong agenda at the Third Plenum last October, and, along with Premier Li Keqiang, continues to underscore the need for economic change. Despite the presence of uncertainty right now, there is reason to believe that those low-ball growth numbers that assume no significant reforms have little basis in fact.
More in the Diplomat.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check our recently updated list.  

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Three questions on Xi Jinping's economic reform - Arthur Kroeber

ark photo apr 08-1_head shot
+Arthur Kroeber 
Xi Jinping's ambitious reform program is answering some of the questions analyst have been asking since the new president took power, writes economist Arthur Kroeber for Brookings. Although his program might not satisfy market fundamentalists. 

Arthur Kroeber:
Those questions are, first, do Xi and his six colleagues on the Politburo standing committee have an accurate diagnosis of China’s structural economic and social ailments? Second, do they have sensible plans for addressing these problems? And third, do they have the political muscle to push reforms past entrenched resistance by big state owned enterprises (SOEs), tycoons, local government officials and other interest groups whose comfortable positions would be threatened by change? Until today, the consensus answers to the first two questions were “we’re not really sure,” and to the third, “quite possibly not.” 
These concerns are misplaced. It is clear that the full 60-point “Decision on Several Major Questions About Deepening Reform”[1] encompasses an ambitious agenda to restructure the roles of the government and the market. Combined with other actions from Xi’s first year in office – notably a surprisingly bold anti-corruption campaign – the reform program reveals Xi Jinping as a leader far more powerful and visionary than his predecessor Hu Jintao. He aims to redefine the basic functions of market and government, and in so doing establish himself as China’s most significant leader since Deng Xiaoping. Moreover, he is moving swiftly to establish the bureaucratic machinery that will enable him to overcome resistance and achieve his aims. It remains to be seen whether Xi can deliver on these grand ambitions, and whether his prescription will really prove the cure for China’s mounting social and economic ills. But one thing is for sure: Xi cannot be faulted for thinking too small... 
In short, there is plenty of evidence that Xi has an ambitious agenda for reforming China’s economic and governance structures, and the will and political craft to achieve many of his aims. His program may not satisfy market fundamentalists, and he certainly offers no hope for those who would like to see China become more democratic. But it is likely to be effective in sustaining the nation’s economic growth, and enabling the Communist Party to keep a comfortable grip on power.
Much more at the Brooking's website.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form

China Weekly Hangout 

Labor camps, the one-child policy, hukou's, pollution, internet censorship, state-owned companies, energy policy: they are just a few of the subjects that appeared last week in the 21,000 character document released after the Third Plenum of the Communist Party, spelling out reform plans for the coming years. The +China Weekly Hangout plans to discuss some of those plans and will ask panelist whether the Third Plenum did bear a mouse or an elephant.
Pending a few logistical challenges, we will hold our online meeting on 21 November at 10pm Beijing time, 3pm CET and 9am EST. We will pick subjects, depending on the expertise of the people joining us on Thursday, and summarize with the question how likely it is president Xi Jinping will pull off the planned reforms.

You can read our announcement here or register at our event page for participation.

Is president Xi Jinping going to win the fight against corruption? +Chao Pan, +Steve Barru and +Harm Kiezebrink discussed at the +China Weekly Hangout on October 31 how the drive against corruption and political survival mix with each other. Moderation: +Fons Tuinstra of the China Speakers Bureau.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

PLA hackers case revisited - who calls the shots in China?

The PLA building in Shanghai
Outside observers look at China too often as a one-party state with a top-down government. When you are living in China or have been there a while, things look a tidbit more complicated, as internal divisions, infighting, if not outright factional wars cause heavy divisions. If you have no eye for those internal differences between government bodies, you might never be able to really understand China.
So, when the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs came out with a firm denial on China's hacking efforts, after US security firm Mandiant published their report, I could not help but smile a bit. In cases of a crisis, the ministry of Foreign Affairs is the last one to get informed; they often have to rely on domestic and international media to find out what is really going on. The denial by the Chinese Ministry of Defense sounds slightly more convincing, although China's government bodies do not have a good tradition of informing each other. There is a fair chance the New York Times report on the country's hacking efforts came as a surprise to the leadership in Beijing too, not only to the ministry of foreign affairs.

Just as a reminder a relative recent incident to illustrate my point. Just hours before the US Secretary of State Robert Gates was due to meet President Hu Jintao during a visit to Beijing in January 2011, China's military conducted a first test flight with a stealth fighter. While US diplomats initially thought this was a way the Chinese leadership wanted to put pressure on the talks in Beijing, they found out their Chinese counterparts, including Hu Jintao, did not even have the information on the test flight. Hu Jintao was then the first in charge of the PLA, but even he was not informed about the test flight.
Perhaps the PLA leadership wanted to make a point? But to who? To the US, or to their comrades in the Zhongnanhai, China's political center? Or perhaps there was no point, as the PLA just had the high-level talks not on their radar screen. Only when some of the real decision makers will write their memoirs, we might possibly know.

The problem of the much quoted Mandiant report is that they come closer than ever in linking hacking efforts to China's military, they still fail to produce the smoking gun. Yes, the IP-addresses they found are linked to a neighborhood in Pudong, Shanghai, where a PLA-related offices of the APT1 or P.L.A. Unit 61398 operate. But even an amateur hacker like me knows that hiding your real IP-address is one of the first things you would have to do as a serious hacker.
So, there are two options. Or, these professional army hackers have not been able, or have been slacking, in hiding their real IP-addresses. Or other hackers have cleverly used those IP-addresses to implicate those poor Chinese. Both options look rather unlikely, but I cannot come up with a valid third one.

While I have no inside information on who is hacking who and for what reason, there is one golden rule to explain what is happening in China, also when it concerns the government: follow the money. Who might have a financial interest in hacking a wide variation of targets, from Coca-Cola to pipe-line companies, from government agencies to journalists?
My estimation is that this PLA-office in Shanghai is largely a commercial operation, bringing in money for both the PLA and possibly the units who are directly involved. They might have also worked on more political assignments, as long as that did not interfere with their commercial targets.
Of course, that is bad, whether hacking is done for financial or for political reasons, or both. But it would be hard to imagine that other parts of the world, including Russia and the US, would not have similar hacking operations. In the US it is even legally covered by the Patriot Act - although only legal from a US perspective.
Of course, by now high-level but low-profile investigation team from Beijing have arrived in Shanghai to find out what has really been happening in those office. But we might have to wait for a Chinese Wikileaks to find out what their findings will be.

At best these report can act as a wake-up call. It is not a China versus the US struggle, we are looking at a global threat that can come from everywhere.

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Monday, November 12, 2012

The middle class pushes back - Helen Wang

Wang_Helen_HiRes_black_MG_1708
Helen Wang
What is making China's middle class making of the ongoing leadership transition in Beijing, author Helen Wang was asked by a range of media. On her weblog she summarizes some of her answers. "They are beginning to push back." 

Helen Wang:
They are beginning to push back. In October, weeklong protests involving thousands of people in an eastern city, Ningbo, forced a chemical plant to suspend its expansion plans. Such large-scale protests are happening more frequently all over the country, from Shifeng in the southwest to Dalian in northeast China. 
In the past, most protesters were farmers who fought for their land. Recently, however, an increasing number of protesters are urban middle class people who are angered by environmental hazards that harm their health. Some use social media to coordinate street protests against construction or expansion of factories and mines. 
The Internet is playing an important role in facilitating average people to voice their opinions. Weibo, a Twitter-like Chinese social media with 300 million users, is a major platform for people to express their views on issues from pollution to corruption. 
On November 6th, in the midst of the US presidential election, Chinese Internet users flocked to Weibo to follow the news. Some commented pointedly on the lack of input they have in choosing their leaders. One blogger wrote, “We are perfectly clear about how the US presidential election works but utterly ignorant about China’s.” 
Evidence from other countries, such as South Korea and Taiwan, suggests that when countries advance economically, they begin to democratize when their median income reaches somewhere between $5,000 and $10,000. Last time I checked, China’s per capita GDP was around $8,000 in 2011. If this rule applies to China, a change in China’s political system may be imminent, if not inevitable.
More at Helen Wang's weblog.

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

The China Weekly Hangout will focus next Thursday on the global ambitions of China's internet companies. For our announcement, please go here, or you can register directly at our event page. You can see all previous editions on our YouTube channel. 

At November 1, the China Weekly Hangout looked back at ten years of harmonious society under president Hu Jintao, with Janet Carmosky, Greg Anderson and Fons Tuinstra.


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Thursday, November 01, 2012

Political transition in China - the China Weekly Hangout

English: Hu Jintao president of china and his ...
English: Hu Jintao president of china and his wife. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the China Weekly Hangout we discussed this week the upcoming political transition in China, with political scientist Greg Anderson and Janet Carmosky of the China Business Network, moderated by Fons Tuinstra of the China Speakers Bureau.

Let us know if this segmentation is working better in stead of a full hour of video. We will watch the traffic and your feedback; based on that we might adjust the format next month.

In the first segment we learn that the harmonious society, the catch all phrase from outgoing president Hu Jintao has not been a huge success, despite the good initial intentions.

In part two we discuss the coming ten years, what are the driving political forces and what can we say about upcoming president Xi Jinping to make a change in China.


In the third segment we shortly discuss the US-China relations, and what the upcoming presidential elections in China might mean for them.


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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Comparing two big elections - Janet Carmosky

Janet_-_006
Janet Carmosky
Next week both China and the US will elect a leadership for their countries. China veteran Janet Carmosky compares in Forbes both elections. 

Janet Carmosky:
Consider that both processes, different as they are, are at their essence both completely legitimate and shot to pieces by too much money. Both were designed carefully to reflect the respective cultural consensus about how rulers are chosen, and neither is really working out as planned.  Consider that results, not form, may be the true criteria of whether a political system is “working” or “broken.” 
My take –institutional inertia and massive implementation issues always exist, but not so much that the intent and philosophy of who governs doesn’t matter.  I believe that in both the USA and China, most people want to have an open opportunity structure instead of oligarchy; geopolitical stability rather than ideological warfare; environmental sustainability rather than long term pollution in service of short term employment.  
Picking nine men from a field of 23 means a more complex playing field, more shifting agendas, more overt opacity than Pick One Guy To Be Boss.  Despite what most Americans might see as a system of “tyranny”, Chinese public outcry and activism has, just this year, stopped toxic factory expansions, brought down corrupt officials, and shut down dangerous trains.  In America, if we can’t pick the one guy more likely to side with the rights of individuals over those of corporations, support public education, respond to climate change in some mode besides denial, and act with restraint in the geopolitical arena, what does that say about our system?  And us?
More in Forbes.

Janet Carmosky is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

On Thursday November 1 the China Weekly Hangout will focus on eight years of harmonious society under Hu Jintao and what we can expect the next eight years under Xi Jinping. Including Janet Carmosky who will report on the findings during the National Committee on US-China Relations China Town Hall on Monday. The CWH is held on 10pm Beijing time, 3pm CET (Europe) and 10pm EST (US). More on the logistics of the hangout later this week at the China Herald or our event page at Google+.  
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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

What after eight years of harmonious society? - China Weekly Hangout

English: THE KREMLIN, MOSCOW. Zhu Rongji, Chin...
Back to Zhu Rongji's legacy? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
On Thursday November 1 the China Weekly Hangout will look back at eight years of harmonious society. When Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao replaced the Jiang Zemin/Zhu Rongji team, it tried to capture its mandate with this beautiful but very vague concept of a "harmonious society".
Eight years down the road, we will ask ourselves whether we have a better clue of this concept. Relations between the poor and the rich did deteriorate, but the straightforward fight for economic growth from Jiang Zemin has certainly become more nuanced. Or did a harmonious society mean the political elite would not go after state-owned companies, like Zhu Rongji sometimes did, and gave those SOE's a free ride?
What does China need in the upcoming eight years? And what is it likely going to get?
We are still working on the guest list, but you can start raising your hand, sending comments and questions both publicly here at this space, or by email.

The China Weekly Hangout is held almost every Thursday on 10pm Beijing time, 4pm CEST (Europe) and 10am EST (US&Canada)

On Thursday 18 October we will at the China Weekly Hangout welcome David Wolf, the author of Making the Connection: The Peaceful Rise of China's Telecommunications Giants and Andrew Hupert, author of The Fragile Bridge: Conflict Management in Chinese Business for a discussion on the future of China's telecom giant Huawei, after last week's devastating report by the intelligence panel of US Congress.

The options for the China Weekly Hangout for 25 October are still under debate and announcements will follow suit. One of the options: how did the position of foreign correspondents in China change over the past decade. Interested? Let us know. 


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Wednesday, November 02, 2011

New military leadership expected - Wendell Minnick

Xi Jinping 习近平
Xi Jinping
China's top leaders are preparing for a change in its political leaders early 2012, and the military are no exception. Military expert Wendell Minnick looks at the upcoming changes in China's top brass in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:
Vice President Xi Jinping is expected to replace Hu Jintao as the CCP secretary general and chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). 
"This transition period will also be highlighted by a significant turnover in the composition of the CMC leadership with the majority of the 10-member panel to retire," said Zhang Xiao-ming, a China specialist at the U.S. Air War College. 
Xi, who is also the vice chairman of the CMC, is seen as a pragmatist who will "accelerate the cultivation of elite personnel, emphasize basic military training, put forth new direction of cadre's ethics construction, and advance military transformation based on science and technology development," said Fu Li-Wen, a researcher at the ICCS. 
Xi is known for his hardline and outspoken style, Fu said. Xi once told an expatriate group of Chinese "compatriots" in Mexico "there are a few foreigners, with full bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country." 
The CMC reshuffle will also mean a turnover of the directorship of the four general departments: General Staff, General Political, General Logistic and General Armament. This will include changes in the deputy directors and other subordinate leaders, Zhang said. The new crop of leaders will also be more tech-savvy with more hands-on experience in the military modernization process, he said. 
The next leaders of the CMC will be "younger, better educated and mission capable," said Ji You, a specialist on the Chinese military at the University of New South Wales. 
"The overwhelming majority of them have served in combat units and climbed through 'steps,'" he said. This is also a leadership that rode the wave of a fivefold increase in the defense budget over the past 15 years.
Wendell_Minnick
Wendell Minnick
More in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.
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Sunday, January 23, 2011

Can America and China trust each other? - Helen Wang

Hu Jintao president of china and his wife.Wikipedia Hu Jintao and wife

After Hu Jintao's state visit to the US, celebrity author Helen Wang addresses key questions about the relations between both countries in her weblog:
Although there are notable differences between the two countries, the leaders of both recognize that the U.S. and China have a lot to gain by working together. One of the concrete results of the visit is the $45 billion agreement allowing U.S. exports into China, which will create 235,000 jobs in America.
Author Helen Wang says, “In the long run, there will still be issues in currency, human rights, and intellectual property, etc., and there will be ups and downs, but I don’t think the U.S.-China relations will turn into a cold-war kind of confrontation. It will be a work-in-progress relationship.”
Some of the questions Helen Wang can answer:
  • Is China America’s worst enemy or best friend?
  • Will China’s growing middle class be a saving grace for America’s economic woes?
  • What are the secrets for U. S. companies to succeed in China?
  • Is it a myth that China is a global manufacturing power?
  • Why should every American student start learning Chinese?
More in her weblog.

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need her at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


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Friday, January 21, 2011

No news from Hu Jintao's state visit - Jeremy Goldkorn

People's Republic of China President, Hu Jinta...Image via Wikipedia
The Voice of America (VOA) asked media expert Jeremy Goldkorn about the coverage of Hu Jintao's state visit to the US, and he did not find that much news.
But very much boiler plate; the kinds of things that Hu Jintao said in his speeches were repeated unquestioningly in the media."
I was interested to see that Xinhua did mention human rights and the fact that Hu Jintao talked about human rights.
"They did. I don’t know how much of that was actually in the Chinese coverage, but there was certainly a mention of it. But that’s not really a new thing. He didn’t say anything substantially different from what other Chinese officials have said in the past."
But the VOA is not deterred. What about the bloggers? Jeremy Goldkorn:
"It hasn’t been a topic of really heated discussion. When it comes to America, there’s always a certain percentage of the Chinese Internet population that is inclined to be nationalist and to be very suspicious of America. And you certainly saw people commenting on, particularly after the stealth jet photos were spread around the Internet, you had a lot of people saying, ‘Oh good, now he’s [Hu Jintao is] going to America. Yes, we’re strong. It’s good. China should be strong. We shouldn’t take any nonsense from America.’ This kind of sentiment is fairly common.
But you also see another group of people who look at the coverage in the U.S. of the discussion of the decline of the United States and China’s rise, China becoming a super power. There’s a significant group of people on the Internet who are very doubtful of that and who don’t see China becoming an equal to the United States any time soon."
More in the VOA.
Goldkorn_for_screenJeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr

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Jeremy Goldkorn is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The military do not take on President Hu - Shaun Rein

Hu JintaoHu Jintao via Wikipedia
The military take on president Hu Jintao by testing their J-20 stealth fighter just days before he leave for the US, writes John Pomfret in the Washington Post. Wrong, argues Shaun Rein in CNBC.
The opposite is true. President Hu is undoubtedly quite in control of China and displayed his power to Gates by employing a plausible deniability ploy.
A far more likely scenario than Pomfret's musings is that Hu is playing a cagey game. By hinting that the People's Liberation Army made the decision without civilian knowledge, Hu is showing he is reasonable and not warlike but the test underscores China will no longer be bullied by America. Hu's ploy of plausible deniability is in fact a common negotiating technique by the Chinese and it is surprising that Pomfret and other pundits missed that.
Many more arguments in CNBC.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Internet, a feedback system for the government - Jeremy Goldkorn

goldkorn_3Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr
China's governments, central, provincial and local, are using the internet increasingly to listen what is happening in their huge country. So, internet analyst and Danwei.org owner Jeremy Goldkorn was not amazed when the central government started a website, allowing its citizens to talk directly to them, he tells CNN.
"The government has been aware of the power of the internet for some time and it has become a major way for the Party to gauge public opinions," said Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of the popular China media website Danwei.org.
Goldkorn cited two much-publicized live Internet chat sessions between netizens and Hu and Wen.
"Although politically incorrect messages will surely be censored on this board, there may still be a genuine feedback mechanism even for those posters," Goldkorn said.
The website was launched last week by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist party.
More at CNN.

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Jeremy Goldkorn is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.