Did Pyongyang attack Sony? - Paul French

+Paul French 

High-end cyber unites, attacks on Sony, threats with nuclear weapons. North-Korea has not been short of themes for Hollywood new movies, but Pyongyang watcher Paul French doubts whether Kim Jong-un likes recent movie releases, he writes for Reuters.

Paul French:

It seems Kim Jong-un doesn’t like the new Seth Rogan movie, The Interview. Not surprising really, it’s a comedy about a fictitious plot to assassinate him. Now Sony Pictures has been the subject of a massive cyber-attack disrupting the company’s communications system and leaking upcoming movies – no more rogue DPRK nukes to keep us awake at night, but rather illicit downloads of a new version of Annie! 

North Korea has, unsurprisingly, been accused of mounting the attack and, equally unsurprisingly, denies it. But they may be on shaky ground. Last summer, when the movie’s plot was first announced, Pyongyang immediately responded, called on the U.S. government to ban the film and threatening a “merciless and resolute” response. In what may be a first for the United Nations, the secretary general was personally informed, by the DPRK’s ambassador, that a rom-com was an ‘act of war.’ The UN has declined to get involved in debating mild comedy... 

So they don’t like The Interview at all, they don’t like Seth Rogen much, and it won’t be playing at the regional multiplexes in Manpo, Hamhung or Wonsan because no American films will be playing in these towns and there are no multiplexes anyway. But do they hate it enough to cyber-attack Sony Pictures? 

Pyongyang says no, but there’s a lot of reasons to think yes. North Korea certainly has substantial cyber-warfare resources developed both in-house and, probably, with the help of the Chinese military and helpful hackers. As South Korea’s technical capabilities, brands and software engineering have become world class, so the North has had to try and keep up. While this has not meant a computer in every home (or even more than a handful in every town), a broadband nation or any North Korea conglomerate the equivalent of an LG or a Samsung, it has meant a highly developed military cyber-attack unit. The North is constantly prepared for war with the South and rendering Seoul electronically “dark” is a vital component of this. Additionally, cyber warfare suits the economically distraught DPRK – hi-tech cyber warriors with laptops don’t need masses of gasoline the way tanks, warships and fighter jets annoyingly do. That Sony is the American entertainment subsidiary of the Japanese parent may well have encouraged any decision to do a little cyber mischief making – Pyongyang remains in a state of insult slinging and perpetual tension with Tokyo. An American company with a Japanese parent embarrassed and rendered impotent electronically – a double whammy for the North.

More at Reuters.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

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North Korea´s gentle power shift - Paul French

+Paul French 

The disappearance of North Korea´s leader Kim Jong-un from public view, might not be as dramatic as some commentators have suggested, writes author Paul French of North Korea: State of Paranoia: A Modern History in a Reuters´blog. It might as well be a gentle power shift from one-man rule to the country´s elite, based on consensus.

Paul French:

Kim Jong-un has apparently gone AWOL. His movements unknown, the reason for his sudden invisibility mysterious. Nobody in Pyongyang is saying anything. But then nobody in Pyongyang ever says very much. Still, Kim has been hard to find since early September and the North Korean media have not posted any pictures of him inspecting a jam factory or shouting into a field telephone at some remote artillery post. “Kim watching” is bread and butter to the smallish coterie of Pyongyang Watchers and radio silence inevitably gets ratcheted up to suspicions of ill health, death, murder or coup. 

In the world of North Korea analysis there’s no light comedy or gentle drama – it’s always straight toMacbeth! But hold on a minute before we put the U.S. Seventh Fleet on red alert or open up the bomb shelters in Seoul. We’ve been here before… 

Rumors of attempted military coups among the shadowy Pyongyang elite have emerged regularly over the years. The 1950s and 1960s saw show trials of senior military personnel, when Kim Il-sung purged political rivals after sequestering himself and leaving analysts wondering where he’d got to. In the late 1960s Chinese Red Guards claimed that Kim Il-sung had been arrested by army generals after he wasn’t seen for a bit. A further purge of the military hierarchy reportedly followed, so maybe the Red Guards knew more than most... 

What we may be witnessing here is something far less dramatic than a coup, but no less important in many respects –- a shift from the traditional policy of the all-powerful, all-guiding  “Suryong Dominant Party-State System,” whereby the supreme leader directly rules over the party, the government, and the military, to something more consensual among the elite. Kim Jong-un may now be accepting advice and delegating roles to a greater extent. His domestic position will remain dominant, a figurehead to the North Korean people, but internationally, and particularly in relations with South Korea he may be purposely taking a back seat to allow a breakthrough.

More in the Reuters´blog.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Paul French is a prolific author and speaker on China and North Korea. For a regularly updated list of his activities, click here. 

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Kim Jong-un well prepared for his task - Paul French

Paul French

North-Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un has been prepared for his new job, probably better than most observers know, says historian and research Paul French, author of the North Korea: The Paranoid Peninsula: A Modern History, Second Edition in Channel 4 news.

Channel 4 news:

Unlike his fellow North Koreans, Kim Jong-un has been exposed to the world outside the communist state after attending school in Switzerland, where he is said to have learned English, German and French, as well as developing a fondness for basketball. 

He may be his father's youngest son, but Paul French, author of North Korea: The Paranoid Peninsula, points out that it was not much of a contest: the oldest son tried to visit Disneyland in Tokyo on a false passport, while his brother is known to have been gambling in Macau, China. "Or you can have the quiet one who has been at a Swiss finishing school," he told Channel 4 News... 

Paul French says that being part of the central military command has been a crucial part of his training. "That is where a lot of the decision-making takes place, and similarly to China and Russia, it's where the Communist party, the state and the army come together. He has been involved in real decision making," he added.

More in Channel 4

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.