How can China deal with the anti-Covid protests? – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China’s leaders face unprecedented protest against its rigid anti-covid policy after earlier this week ten deaths in Urumqi were to blame for that. Political analyst Victor Shih sees China’s Communist Party walking on a tight rope, he says in the Hindustan Times.

The Hindustan Times:

An expert on China said Beijing has missed maintaining a balance between Covid control and economic growth, leading to citizens’ anger.

“Basically, what the (Chinese) leadership wants, a fine balance between growth and Covid control, is beyond the capacity of grassroots level enforcers. Instead, they are using draconian measures which invite popular anger,” Victor Shih, Associate Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego, expert on Chinese elite politics, said.

There is apprehension that the ruling Communist Party of China could respond with hard measures against the protesters.

“In the short term, the government walks a tight rope between too little repression, which may lead to more protests, and too much, which triggers backlash protests. Unfortunately, with the pervasive surveillance in China, the government will be able to arrest and punish the ring leaders after things have cooled,” Shih added.

“However, with Covid policies still unclear, popular anger may persist for a long period of time, something the regime has not had to deal with for decades,” Shih said.

More at the Hindustan Times.

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How tough was the Shanghai quarantine? – Mark Schaub

 

Mark Schaub

China lawyer Mark Schaub returned to London after three months of quarantine in Shanghai, including a COVID camp. He looks back at the experience in his resumed China Chit-Chat.  How bad was it really? How different is it from the US? And: are his Chinese friends leaving Shanghai?

Mark Schaub:

How tough was Shanghai’s lockdown?

My impression is that Shanghai’s lockdown was tougher than similar European lockdowns – no going to the supermarket, no pharmacies, no exercise – but not as inhumane as often portrayed in Western media. Many poorer people suffered greatly but this is not unique to China’s lockdown.

One group that suffered in particular were the elderly – Shanghai’s lockdown was in many ways an e-lockdown. Many elderly Chinese people have modest lives and do not own a smart phone. A smart phone is needed to show your PCR test result and obtain the green code. Without a green code you cannot not go about your normal life (e.g. get on a bus, enter a shop or even come back home). Many older residents also rely upon their family – isolation hit them especially hard.

I think many forget how tough Western lockdowns were – in London there was no mixing outside your social bubble, difficulties accessing medical care, you could not visit critically ill loved ones, no funerals, … it was a lonely and isolating time. Shanghai’s had all that toughness and more … but its advantage was its relative brevity and geographic containment. If China was doing its lockdown when the West was doing theirs I assume it would not have been much of a media topic.

More in the China Chit-Chat.

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Expect real opening of Shanghai by the end of June – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

The number of Covid cases in Shanghai keeps on dropping and residents do get small bits of freedom back from the stringent lockdown. But Shanghai-based consultant Ben Cavender expects only business activities to resume by the end of June, he tells in RTHK.

RTHK:

Ben Cavender, a Shanghai-based consultant for the China Market Research Group, told RTHK’s Moneytalk that some residents have been allowed to leave their homes to run errands.

“I’d say probably 80 percent of the people that we’ve spoken with over the past week have now gotten to the point where they’re receiving timed passes that allow one individual from the household to leave their compound for a couple of hours a day, presumably to go shopping or take care of medical issues or things like that,” he said.

Cavender added businesses have been slowly reopening.

“The reality is most businesses are still very much closed here, so it’s really sort of a limited opening in the right direction, though I think over the next three weeks or so, we’re going to see pretty big changes in that direction.”

The mainland reported 184 new coronavirus cases on May 29, of which 34 were symptomatic and 150 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said on Monday.

More in RTHK.

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The Great Shanghai Expat Exodus – Mark Schaub

 

Mark Schaub

China veteran and lawyer Mark Schaub dives into the issue of the upcoming exodus of ex-pats from Shanghai, triggered off by the stringent COVID-19 lockdowns. More foreigners than ever will be leaving, while fewer are coming to replace them unless their companies reinvent themselves. But to a large degree, this is a long overdue cleanup in a dynamically changing climate, he argues in his second weekly column China chit-chat.

Mark Schaub:

 COVID is deadly to the vulnerable – this applies to businesses as well as people. In the West some businesses were hit hard but bounced back quickly. In the West COVID sped up the demise of old-fashioned retail, chain restaurants past their prime and often small businesses.  At lot of these businesses had already lost their way and COVID just sped up the inevitable. For a long time, I have wondered whether foreign invested enterprises in China needed a shakeup. Many have been shielded by being in a growth market (but now being squeezed by competitors), having a profitable niche (but these niches are now also becoming battlegrounds), headquarters knowing China is too important to ignore but also a tough market on which they are not willing/able to spend their time on but also unwilling to fully empower the local management.

For many Western businesses the question going forward will be is can you continue to succeed in a dynamic market like China if management on the ground cannot take decisions dynamically? Can you survive against more agile competitors? Does it make sense to still be in the Chinese market.

More in the China chit-chat.

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China lockdowns hurt multinational firms – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Global companies have been warning of the major effects of China’s lockdown on their operations, curtailing Shanghai for more than six weeks. But they have very few alternatives apart from sitting out the ordeal, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender to CNN. The corporate exodus from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine did not help. For sure, consumption in China is down.

CNN:

The combination of both events has created a staggering one-two punch for multinational corporations, such as Estée Lauder (EL), which said last week that the “two significant headwinds” forced it to slash its outlook for the year.

The crisis is a stark reminder of China’s outsized importance to global companies.

“Like it or not, at this point if you’re a multinational, China is probably your first or second largest consumer market,” said Ben Cavender, managing director of the consultancy China Market Research Group…

“Frankly speaking, consumers right now are not worried about buying lipstick or coffee,” said Cavender. “They’re really much more focused on getting [necessities].”

In Shanghai, for instance, the lockdown initially led to a massive scramble for food and widespread complaints about difficulties receiving deliveries.

Now, even as access improves, many people concentrate on what’s known as “group buying,” allowing users who live in the same community to place bulk orders together for groceries and other essentials.

Even those who aren’t stuck at home may be affected. Consumers who live in cities without restrictions might also hesitate to go out and hit the mall, for fear of “what has happened in Shanghai,” where people remain in lockdown indefinitely, said Cavender.

“It’s been a very big negative drag on consumption.”…

Cavender said that the recent challenges in Ukraine and China had highlighted “a period of greater risk” more broadly for international firms.

“I do think there are a lot more challenges now to being a multinational than there have been in the past,” he added.

More at CNN.

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Why the Shanghai lockdown was necessary – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein – in this sixth week of quarantine – explains why it was needed for the 26-million city to lock down fully.

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Why Shanghai is (mostly) better for your China investment – Mark Schaub

 

Mark Schaub

China lawyer Mark Schaub tells why in most cases foreign companies are better off in Shanghai, compared to other cities in the mainland, in a wide-ranging discussion on myths many have on China, in his vlog.

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VC helping startups to fight the big internet – William Bao Bean

 

William Bao Bean (left)

Shanghai-based VC William Bao Bean explains how his global SOSV fund helps startups to fight against the big internet, and bring innovation into the traditional VC world, at the Asian Investors podcast.

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Lessons learned from China – William Bao Bean

 

William Bao Bean

The US used to be a benchmark for many innovative companies and startups, but China is now leading the way, says VC William Bao Bean with a major portfolio in China, Asia in a webinar of NYU SPS Integrated Marketing and Communications. He explains what lessons can be learned from China.

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What is behind Ant's US$200 billion IPO? - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

Alibaba's Ant Group will list for a US$200 billion IPO at both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets, the largest in 2020. Political analyst Shirley Ze Yu dives into the background of this financial giant.

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Moving to the new normal - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

Shanghai-based VC William Bao Bean used to spend 30-40 percent of his time at planes and airports, now found himself back in an office job in Shanghai after the corona lockdown had ended and explains to CNBC how that may work out.

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China has more billionaires than the US and India combined - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

The annual Hurun Global Rich List counted today more billionaires in China than in the US and India combined, says Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman of the Shanghai-based Hurun Report after its publication on Wednesday, to Caixin. In 2019, China created 182 billionaires, three times the number as those in the U.S., according to the Hurun Report.

Caixin:

Despite a slowdown in the economy and trade tensions with the U.S., China had 799 billionaires in 2019, more than both the U.S. and India put together, according to the annual Hurun Global Rich List, which measured the wealth of some 2,816 billionaires from 71 countries and regions.
“China today has more billionaires than the U.S. and India combined,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman of the Shanghai-based Hurun Report, which published the rankings Wednesday. He added that a boom in tech valuations and strong stock markets in China, the U.S. and India pushed the number of global billionaires to a record high of 2,816.
In 2019, China created 182 billionaires, three times the number as those in the U.S., according to the Hurun Report.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma, who retired in September last year, climbed a place to become the world’s 21st richest person with a net worth of $45 billion last year, retaining his title as China’s wealthiest person. Ma ranked just ahead of Tencent’s Pony Ma with a net worth of $44 billion and Xu Jiayin of property developer Evergrande with $33 billion.
An overseas pushback against Huawei and a U.S. blacklisting did not prevent the company’s founder, 76-year-old Ren Zhengfei from growing his personal fortune by 7% to $3 billion. He ranked at 903rd, the same as U.S. President Donald Trump.
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was the world’s richest man for a third consecutive year with a $140 billion fortune, according to the list.

More in Caixin.

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Why an Indian virtual fitting room has a match in China - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

The Indian startup TryNdBuy has been adopted by the Chinaccelerator, and Shanghai-based managing director William Bao Bean explains why the virtual fitting room has a good chance to succeed in China, he tells at Livemint. Up to now, every virtual fitting room including Amazon and Microsoft, makes the consumer look bad, he explains.

Livemint:

Chinaccelerator MD William Bao Bean explains why he took a chance on the Indian entrepreneur.
“Every virtual fitting room I’ve ever seen makes the consumer look bad. Amazon and Microsoft make the person look like a plastic dummy. The consumer is not going to buy something if she looks bad in it," he says.
He says TryNDBuy’s computer vision solution does a better job of making a 3D virtual avatar that won’t make a consumer cringe while getting a sense of how she will look in a dress. Chinaccelerator is helping the startup with the tough act of business development outside India.
“It’s a B2B (business-to-business) sale, step by step. There’s interest from brands in China and then we just have to navigate Alibaba, which is never an easy thing," he says.

More at Livemint.

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The next bet is on India - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

Shanghai-based VC William Bao Bean, general partner at SOSV, who is also the managing director of two SOSV accelerator programs—MOX and Chinaccelerator, explains how India is becoming the next bet for his startup accelerator after China, in an interview with Kr-Asia.

Kr-Asia:

We came to India during pre-internet times and we realized it was a bit early. In the first three years we invested in seven companies and last year alone we did 15 investments. 

From 2016 to 2019 we made bets on the change that has come to India. We’ve seen it happen in China and the US. In the 90s I was in the US doing tech investment when the internet boom happened. 

We’re focused on mobile-first, mobile-only, and don’t go after the 30 million rich people in India. We’re focused on the populace living in smaller towns, people who don’t really make that much money, and where technology has the opportunity to change their lives. 

The companies we are working with, many of them had almost no revenue when we invested. For example, Coutloot, the e-commerce site we invested in, were barely selling anything, and now they’ve grown by something like 20 times in a year. It’s all the entrepreneurs’ efforts, not ours, but we are trying to be helpful with a slightly different perspective. 

We’ve had some experience in mobile-first and mobile-only models in China. So, we come in and help entrepreneurs with this experience. The early-stage entrepreneurs, they don’t have the benefits like the big guys have of Chinese money or parachuting 50 engineers in from Silicon Valley. We are helping these entrepreneurs with the tips, tricks, tools, and strategies that all the big guys have. 

I think the combination of timing, expertise, and approach that we bring, allows us to make quick investment decisions. Our companies first get traction, then they raise money, and not vice-versa. That’s one of the things that we help them with. 

Kr: How involved are you with your portfolio companies in India? 

WBB: The problem with the internet in India and not just India, but in many countries is the high customer acquisition costs. 

We are not just about investing money; we help our companies lower their acquisition costs as close as possible to zero. We help our companies make more money and increase their lifetime value. We are able to lower customer acquisition costs because our companies cooperate with each other and they cross-promote each other. Our companies don’t have to pay for users, but they do get revenue share on the back end. We have got 56 million monthly active smartphone users and a lot of these are cross-promoting each other. That’s our first strategy. 

People love our portfolio companies’ apps and they’re super sticky, but the problem is they don’t have a business model. So, we help them get a business model and increase their lifetime value. One of the main ways to monetize in India is e-commerce affiliates and financial services. We make it possible for them to start monetizing from e-commerce affiliates and microloans. 

On one side you have free acquisition, on the other side, you have monetization, making customer acquisition costs decrease, and the lifetime value goes up. All these happen without raising money and without an entrepreneur giving away half of his or her company to a VC only to turn around and spend all that money on advertising. 

We try and help the companies to get the positive unit economics where the lifetime value is above customer acquisition costs. We help them try and get the scale and when we do that a good number of them can go out and actually raise money at a proper valuation from a proper VC.

More in Kr-Asia.

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The future of Hong Kong: continued decline - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

Hong Kong is economically on a downhill slope and its current problems do not help the city to stop that, says Jim Rogers, veteran investor, at his weblog. "China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore."

Jim Rogers:

The only reason Hong Kong became Hong Kong was because of 1949, in Mao Zi time. Now, you don't need Hong Kong anymore. Shanghai was the largest financial center between New York and London before the before the war, Second World War. 

China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore. It's going to continue to decline. When the Renminbi, the Chinese currency, is convertible, yes, I would expect the Hong Kong dollar to disappear.

More at his weblog.

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Less wealthy Chinese families - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

For the first time in five years' time, the number of rich Chinese families has dropped, says this year's Hurun Wealth Report, according to the China Daily. Both a dropping economy and the trade war triggered off the effect, says Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman of the Hurun Report, now in its 11th year.

The China Daily:

Economic slowdown and the trade tensions between China and the United States have resulted in a minor slide in the number of affluent families in China, said the Hurun Wealth Report 2019 released on Tuesday. 

As of Dec 31 last year, the number of high–net-worth Chinese families with household assets of 10 million yuan ($1.4 million) dropped 1.5 percent from a year earlier to 1.98 million, according to the report. The number of ultra-high-net-worth Chinese families with household assets of 100 million yuan also contracted by 4.5 percent to 127,000. 

Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and chief researcher of Hurun Report, said it is the first time in five years that a drop has been recorded in the number of high–net-worth Chinese families. China's economic slowdown and restructuring, the trade conflict between China and the United States, combined with the 20 percent slide in the major A-share indexes last year, have resulted in the contraction, he said. 

Beijing is still home to the largest number of high–net-worth families, with 288,000 households in the city owning assets of at least 10 million yuan. Guangdong comes second, followed by Shanghai. 

The majority of 65 percent of these 10-million-yuan asset families own their own businesses. Company executives, property market investors and professional stock market investors are the less commonly found occupations in this category. 

However, the number of wealthy Chinese families with household assets of 6 million yuan reached 4.94 million by the end of 2018, up 1.2 percent year-on-year, according to the report.

More in the China Daily.

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How China's urbanites create new identities - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

China's big cities are developing a new city life, including new identities, writes journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, at the opening chapter of, Shanghai Sacred: The Religious Landscape of a Global City, by photographer and anthropologist Liz Hingley, quoted in a review of the photo exhibition in Liverpool at Creative Boom.

Creative Boom:

With around 26 million inhabitants, the megalopolis is home to a multitude of religions from Buddhism and Islam, to Christianity and Baha'ism, to Hinduism and Daoism and many other alternative faiths, which are constantly growing and evolving. 

In the book's introduction, Ian Johnson, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and specialist in Chinese religion, adds: "Freed from being defined by where they were born, China’s urbanites have created new identities, discovering for themselves what they truly believe with the aid of new technologies, social media and convergence of faiths and cultures. 

"Some of this religious life takes place in skyscrapers and apartment blocks, but also in the pockets of the past that still dot Shanghai: a traditional New Year’s dinner, the persistence of burning paper houses, cars, and money for the dead, or a rambunctious music group announcing a wedding, birth, or funeral. Faith in China may be vulnerable, yet its unwavering importance is beyond doubt. Its very presence in people’s hearts makes it impossible to eradicate. More than economics or politics, it is these moments that are the new heart of China."

More in Creative Boom.

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Can Costco succeed where other foreign competitors gave up? - Ashley Dudarenok

Ashley Dudarenok

US discount retailer Costco made a blast this week in Shanghai with the opening of their first flagship store. Can it succeed where Carrefour, Amazon, Tesco, and others give in to domestic and online competition, wonders branding expert Ashley Dudarenok.

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Travel: hard to make a buck for startups - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

Ctrip is one of China's successful travel companies, but for most startups, it is a tough market to crack, said William Bao Bean, managing director of the Shanghai-based China Accelerator, last week at a travel conference in Amsterdam, according to Phocuswire.com. Bean did identify some potential success stories, though.

Phocuswire.com:

Ctrip says that orders on the Customized Travel unit increased 180% in 2018. 

According to the research, travelers most likely to book the high-end travel tend to be women or couples aged 31 to 40 years old. Ctrip's data shows an average spend per person on a high-end customized travel package of $3,410 compared to $790 for a standard package. 

Ctrip is targeting China’s high-net-worth individuals who totalled 1.67 million in 2018, according to the report. 

Others are also seeing the potential in this segment with William Bao Bean, general partner at SOSV and managing director of Chinaaccelerator, investing in startups targeting these travelers. 

Speaking at the Phocuswright Europe conference in Amsterdam last week, he said most people are “chasing a fraction of a fraction of a fraction” and that while the travel market is huge there is “virtually no money in it.” 

He was talking about how difficult it is for early-stage investors to break in to the market and highlighted a company called Portier that Chinaaccelerator has invested in. 

Portier provides high-end phones to guests in top tier hotels enabling the properties to offer them additional services. 

Bao says that on average the company is increasing revenue room night by 20% and that it’s “high-margin revenue.” 

He also touched on another investment in a company called Lux’Sens, which connects luxury good retailers to consumers, saying that 40% of global luxury spend is from China and that more than half of that spend is outside of China. 

“50/60% of that [spend] happens outside China so why not try and capture that revenue.”   

The Ctrip Customized Travel unit estimates high-end customized travel will grow by 200% in the next three years.

Phocuswire.com.

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Lessons from boom and bust in China - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

Renowned investor Jim Rogers learned from the China market 23 years ago in a painful boom-and-bust cycle. Now he is bullish on China, but shares a few tough lessons he learned in those early days, he will not forget, he writes in the Daily Wealth.

Jim Rogers:

A lot has happened in 23 years. A lot has changed. Today, I'm incredibly bullish on China. Prices are rising. And trillions of dollars are set to flow into Chinese stocks in the coming years. That's because of three big stories we've been covering here in DailyWealth...

• China must invest a huge portion of its pension assets into the stock market to support its aging population.

• Stocks trading locally in China could see inflows of up to $2 trillion over the next 10 years as index provider MSCI continues to add them to its benchmarks.

• China is launching a Nasdaq-like stock exchange this year, which could kick off the biggest bubble we've seen in 30 years.

After 23 years, this is the setup I've been waiting to see... And I believe this time, the gains could be even bigger than what I experienced during my first China boom. But if you're going to invest in China, you've got to be smart. You've got to learn from my mistakes. 

That means you need to avoid catastrophic losses. You need to have a plan and stick with it. 

I suggest using trailing stops on your investments. That's how you stay in for the upside – and protect yourself on the downside. And it's the right way to benefit from the China boom that's happening right now. 

No market stays in bad shape forever... least of all China. I've seen what the Chinese markets can do, firsthand. And you really want to invest in this incredible boom. So make a plan... and take advantage of it!

More in the Daily Wealth.

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