Sunday, January 28, 2007

Fons' fund - Bubble or no bubble?

While I'm still struggling through my Investing For Dummies, I'm also following the news about the stock markets and mutual funds a bit. What I find really very funny is the way how sometimes analysts outside China try to make sense out of the Shanghai stock market and do as if it is a normal stock exchange. Especially the talk about bubbles is funny.
They include Shanghai in their "Asian" overviews as if the market decides what the shares are doing. Chinese investors do not care about the international market, they mainly look what government is doing. In the 1990s the government created this joyful rollerscater, the government caused to plunge most of this century and cause the upsurge in the past year.
The story is even a bit more complicated. It is not the government who is driving the market, but the anticipation of the investors of what the government will do.
That stock market is becoming more important as the measure of the government to cool down the real estate sector seem to have effect. So, does the government allow the stock markets to swallow the capital that is floating around in China? The China Securities regulatory Commission is trying to slow down its growth, as the investors went crazy because of the recent upsurge.
I believe the Chinese investors will keep on taking the risk for the coming months. Eventually, the government might really slow down the market, but the warnings are not yet strong enough.

Investing For Dummies, 4th Edition

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