A new year, a new doomsday scenario - the WTO-column

When the news tide is low, because of holidays or of a cut internet cable, it is a safe bet to expect the reemergence of a few classic China stories. One is about the dramatic shortage of women, causing social unrest. The other is about the upcoming collapse of China at large. For the men in Shanghai I have good news: I did a headcount on my way to the office; women are still in the majority, so there is no reason for immediate panic.

In 2004 I have been explaining why missing 20 million women in China is only a statistical problem. Even now the number is 30 million in 15 years time, I'm still not impressed.

People who have been following my articles might know that I'm also highly sceptical about nationwide doomsday scenario's for China. When I started to work in China, Deng Xiaoping was on his prolonged deathbed. Everybody I met at the time was sure that his death would cause chaos, mayhem and in the end the collapse of China. Since then, the number of times we were convinced China would be near its end have been countless. The banking crisis, the handover of Hong Kong, bureaucratic infighting, deadly diseases, global warming, corruption, tensions with the US over Taiwan.

What all those doomsday scenario's have in common is that they did not materialize. It took a while, but I have become a sceptic when it comes to doomsday scenario's for China as a whole.

The author Will Hutton fell earlier this month short of predicting an immediate collapse, or a collapse within five years as Gordon Chang did six years ago, he came very close. He describes China as a Leninist structure, incapable of changing and an unstable entity that might threaten the world.

There is no shortage of legitimate problems that have caused, caused and will cause a lot of serious disruption. When you look at the political system, the traditional media, the educational system, the health care, sometimes you wonder why it all still works. That is partly my explanations for the fact that a full collapse of China is not happening. Collapse is so much part of the country's daily routine, it has developed an excellent crisis management to deal with those problems, although it seldom happens on a timely way.

Picking a few of those problems, ignoring existing or possible solutions and voila: that makes a rather convincing doomsday scenario and a possible bestseller. But when you are living in China, watch the enormous changes taking place, you see what falls short on all these scenario's. The lack of internal coherence is both a problem and a blessing. The people who sell remember the few times when Mao Zedong was able to get the noses of the whole nation in the same direction know that China's inefficiency is also a blessing in disguise.

Fons Tuinstra

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