Green knights, on your horses

the Tai Lake, near Wuxi, this summer

(A partly revamp of an earlier article)

Some weeks ago the State Council approved a five-year plan for the environment, official media announced. Stiff targets, much needed measures illustrate the need for China to take environmental protection very serious. But while nobody will argue about the need for drastic action to reverse the ongoing environmental degradation of the country, the question is whether anything serious is going to happen. In the same week state media reported about the environmental damage caused by the Three Gorges Dam, that had been predicted by many experts, but had been off limits as long as former premier Li Peng still had some leverage.
Earlier this year I listed the long row of urgent priorities by the central government. I found the list impressive and actually none of the subjects could be missed there. Without addressing each of them, China would develop a massive problem. Since then, with the product quality scandals and a few more behind us, the list has only grown. At that time, I was also wondering which of those priorities would survive the year-end. Some things move faster than expected.
Politics in China is governed by negotiations between the central and many, many other government departments. Much of the real power is in the hands of local power brokers, law enforcement agencies and state-owned companies and only by getting their consent, the central government can realize some of its priorities. The question is therefore: what urgent priorities will drop off the list?
I have been discussing the subject with a range of fellow China-watchers and there is a growing consensus that the environment has dropped out. Some cynics actually say, it has never been on it, but for a while at least investments in environmental projects went up. Local authorities do not mind those investments, since they benefit mostly directly from every investment. (Niet everybody agrees though, like here at AllroadsleadtoChina.
A few times over the past months, the government departments in charge of the environment had to take severe political hits. One report by the World Health Organization on the number of environmental reports in China and one developed with the World Bank on the Green GDP, a pet-project of president Hu Jintao, were killed. They still had some effect because the reports of course leaked out, but it gave a clear signal that the environment as an issue should back-off. Too many power brokers did not like it.
Some of my friends dismissed those reports anyway as meaningless propaganda tools. That might be true, but when even meaningless propaganda kits gets killed, there is something rotten.
What those reports could and should have done is creating a climate for real measures, like a stiff increase of energy prices, so the usage of energy could slow down and that could force even the economy at large to cool down, something the central government has not yet been able to do. But when anything goes against the interest of the local power brokers, it is a slowdown of the economy. Those in charge are making money on the booming economy now and do not want to share that with a next generation of leaders.
Of course, China is never going to remove the environment as an issue from its political agenda. And of course, next year Beijing needs to have some breathable air for at least a few weeks in August as the Olympics take place. In the official propaganda, the environment will remain an issue, but not one with a high priority.
Knowing this, what can be done?
First, the environmental struggle has seen severe setbacks and the prospects do not look good. But not all is lost yet and the green knights should get on their horses and get their act together.
Second, companies involved in environmental projects should get their things implemented as soon as possible. Funding that is available should be used as much as possible, because a drop on the political agenda will be followed by a drop in funding
For the record, of course I hope this gloomy analysis is wrong.

Fons Tuinstra

PS: Did you notice what triggered off the Saffran Revolution in Burma? Prices for fuel went up. When the Chinese autorities needed yet another argument not to increase the price of energy, they just got it.