The Cold War might have ended one and a half decade ago, but many of its institutions and old ways to frame realities are still in place, although becoming rapidly obsolete. That is the key argument in a sweeping new book by William H. Overholt "Asia, America and the Transformation of Geopolitics".
The book is clearly published with the upcoming elections in the US in mind and attempts to influence its international agenda, but that of course has profound implications for the rest of the world.
William Overholt is Asia Policy Chair and Director, Center for Asia Pacific Policy, RAND Corporation. Overholt was one of the first, as early as 1993, to predict that Gorbachov was at the time on the wrong track, while Deng Xiaoping was getting it right.
One characteristic element of US presidential elections since the Cold War started is that up to now virtual all newly elected presidents entered office with a firm anti-China agenda, following electoral promises made to a misguided audience that identified - steered by the media - China as a threat. In all cases it took about 18 months for those presidents to wise up, make a U-turn and redefine their roll towards China.
Those and other anomalities in the US foreign policies do not only cause loss of time and resources, but are increasingly creating potential crises. In the post-war years the US developed successful programs in both Europe and Asia where a combination of military might and economic development through Marshall plans helped countries to develop a solid economic basis and defuse political conflict. While that two-legged policy worked very well in the past, now military might is dominating in US policies, ignoring the economic lessons of the past.
Some parts of the establishment in Washington would wrongly define China as a threat because of its current economic development, because they assume that economic power automatically leads to an aggressive military attitude. Overholt, on the other side, argues that only Asian countries who have seen a solid economic development first have been able to change into more democratic systems.
China is indeed making mainly diplomatic forays into its relationships with its neighbors, but that is mainly because the US have left a vacuum that is now being filled by China, argues Overholt.
I would share much of his arguments, but concerning China Overholt now and then outruns himself in his eagerness to stress the countries development. For example when he says that "Most controls on speech have disappeared". While the internet indeed allows more debate than ever, there is no room for that wide-ranging optimism. Also his optimistic description of the role of the NGO's in China, while they can be more active than ever, his optimism is most likely not shared by most of those NGO's, who do get some verbal support from the central government, but are seen on most governmental levels as a nuisance. That overoptimism, together with some minor factual mistakes, do distract from his otherwise powerful argument.
From the helikopter view Overholt is offering, his sweeping comparisons of current or past leading parties in other Asian countries is compelling and interesting, down on earth especially the differences between Japan's LDP - still in power because it can command huge resources that are not controlled by the government - and the communist party in China, look bigger than its similarities. Because if its size and particular administrative culture of huge scale bureaucratic infighting, central authorities in China do not wield the kind of power the outside world often think they have.
The lessons learned from the way how Taiwan's Lee Tenghui split the leading Kuomingtang, and effectively forced them out of power, have been noted in China too and it will certainly avoid a similar track. But under a cover of unity, the many battles for real power are not less fierce, and make effective governance very difficult.
Overholt is slaughtering many holy cows in his book and is meant to provoke discussion. That might work out pretty well.
Fons Tuinstra
William Overholt is represented by Chinabiz Speakers and you can check his availability here.
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