It is a rainy day in Shanghai, the stock index is climbing again up from the relative doldrums today and on top of that we have in Asia Times the reprint of a solid prediction the market (and perhaps China, is going to crash.) Quite a lot of my favorite weblogs linked to this story.
Regular readers of this weblog might know that I have some long-standing problems with doomsday scenario's for China. I'm certainly not denying that China has huge, seemingly unsolvable problems. But when the term "crash" or even "collapse" (hello, Gordon Chang!) pass by, I switch off.
Not because I do not believe the arguments. I have seen dozens of doomsday theories on China passing my desks, believed them all and only when Gordon Chang started in 2001 to make a business out of this, I became a serial disbeliever. Because what all those theories have in common, apart from rather convincing, it that none of them became true.
China has some build-in safety valves that - up to now I must admit - helped to avoid the system from falling apart. Of course, there might be a day when I prove to be wrong, but for the time being, I'm a disbeliever.
Should write a book about the way how these political safety valves work, but other can do that better and they might have more time too.
No comments:
Post a Comment