Thursday, March 01, 2007

Fons' fund - Tuesday: the watershed for mutual funds

Time to resume my research into the best way to invest a bit of capital, especially now last Tuesday and especially Wednesday the Shanghai stock market (SSE) showed itself from its best side in confusing the international financial world.
Some people, including those who have asked me to help them in investing some capital, have already publicly declared that they have serious doubts about my mental health. But for the time being, I stick to my guns. Doing business in China and especially working on the stock exchange - even if it is through mutual funds - is not for the fainthearted.
First, some fundamentals. China's financial system, including the stock markets are - not yet - part of the international financial system. Its currency cannot be exchanged freely and foreign investors cannot invest at the Chinese stock market, unless they have a Chinese partner - I mean in terms of marriage.
So, when the Chinese stock market went down 9 percent on Tuesday, there was no reason for the international stockmarkets to follow. The international stockmarkets do not drop when the pope in Rome breaks a leg, do they?
Some analysts thought they could get away with they ludricious actions by saying that it might mean that the Chinese economy as a whole would be in danger. Statements of that level only indicate that those people are in need for an early retirement. Do not put them at a guard at the front door. Send them home, now.
Historical insight is of course not an asset that counts in an industry that is reported like a soccer game, but it does make sense to go a few years back. From the beginning of this century the Chinese stockmarkets have been extremely boring from an investors point of view. They only went down. Last year, they went up of course in a rather fast way, but the stockmarkets did not marginally reflect the excitement for the investors in the 1990. Not only behaved the market fully out of line with the international market, every sense of logic was absent. Nobody knew what was going to happen next, you only knew you needed a strong stomach.
I was not really shocked when the stock market dropped 9 percent on Tuesday. Even for Chinese standards that was stiff, but - hey - the investors in Shanghai had been missing their favorite rollarcoaster movements for over seven years. We will see more, much more of that.
The government has not started a serious crackdown, the fundamentals are still in place for an upward direction in the next six months, although it will not be a straight line, no sir.
So, I will check, which funds kept a straight spine on Tuesday and did not sell off their Chinese stock. That show they might have a clue how China works and might be worth mine and perhaps your investment.

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