This morning I ended up doing an interview for an Iranian TV-station on the one-child policy in China. Do not ask me how I ended up there, but humble me thought I had some smart things to say.
The crew, treated me on a very nice ice tea just down my office building, wanted to know what the economic effects were of the one-child policy. One was very obvious: having 300 million less Chinese to feed, house, educate and nurse. Even though compliance with the policy is at the country side much less than in the big cities the total effect is still pretty massive. Just imagine China having to hunt for more energy, ore and other resources for 300 million people more.
What is even more important, on a private level, is that families are much wealthier with one child than with two, three or more. They might have had perhaps the same income, but would have had to spend it in a different way. Now the Shanghainese have to think on what to do first, their baby or a car. When there would have been more babies, a car, a car industry and even an expanding middle class might not have been on the agenda.
China would have been much more like India.
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