Ogilvy's (and Chinabiz Speaker) Kaiser Kuo summarizes and comments on the hot debate on how fast the online ad market is growing. Discounting all too exited reports from investment banks and even Nielsen, Kuo quotes Bill Bishop:
So in other words, if you take all of the most optimistic projections of Chinese internet ad revenue you still get about one month of the Guangzhou province print market.The SFN-blog quotes another report where the 2007 internet ad market (US$ 739 million of 5.5 percent) is well below Kuo's estimation US$ 1 billion for 2007. At least we are discussing growth here, unlike the print market where recession is the talk of the town:
Press media, including newspapers and magazines, however, has experienced a bottleneck – its share accounted for nearly 35 percent in 2003, but has shrunk more than 10 percent to only 22.66 percent in 2007. The recession is expected to continue.It might be time to express the value of the Chinese ad market in Renminbi, in stead of US dollars, now the peg between both is gone and the US dollar is dropping like a stone.
Update: Forgot to ad a link to Thomas Crampton's piece on the same subject.
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