Joining the Disney Shanghai game

Hong Kong's Disneyland

The China Briefing is joining the game in guessing where ("if" seems hardly an issue) Shanghai's Disneyland is going to be located. Chongming Island would be their choice, although the Chongming government has already three days ago denied the rumor. But who would believe the local government in this kind of cases?
This is what CB noted:

“We have made plenty of efforts to have a Disney theme park. No decision has been made so far. We will make announcements when we know the result. A Disney theme park will probably be built in Shanghai after the World Expo,” the spokesman said.

Does not sound like a very firm denial, does it?
Disneyland is already on Shanghai's drawing boards for a long time and has been included in the plans of at least a few districts, including Pudong and Chuansha. Earlier Chongming island was not in the race, because it had no good connection with the mainland, but since the connecting bridge will be ready in 2009, it could be a very likely candidate.
Shanghai has never stopped being eager and even now Hong Kong means their Disneyland is not doing well at all, Shanghai will most likely prefer to ignore those signals. Main hold-up has been Beijing, who is not eager to issue licenses for this kind of licenses now it also wants to cool down the economy.
In the past Disney itself has also caused delays. In a misguided effort to develop its own China policy, it tied its Shanghai Disneyland in 2005 to the request to start its own Disney channel on Chinese TV.
That connection did not make any sense, since China would never bent for this kind of pressure to allow foreign companies to run its own propaganda shows. Foreign participation in Chinese TV is a rather large no-go area and it seems that in this area Disney has come to its senses.
The announcement will most likely come only after Spring Festival and the political season have passed, since this goes very much against the "cooling down" policies of the central government. My estimation: construction will start early summer.
Next issue that came up in my office: where will Shanghai built its own Macao/Las Vegas casino's. As far as I know is gambling still illegal in China, so the government would need some creative solution. Not sure if a Special Gambling Zone (SGZ) would work. I would rather bet on Waigaoqiao, the free trade zone in Pudong, that is technically anyway outside the Chinese borders.