Saturday, April 05, 2008

How much of China's economy depends on the US?

White House, South FacadeImage by Mastery of Maps via FlickrThe question what effect the economic downturn of the US will have on China has passed by here more than one time, last time when Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Regulatory Banking Commisson (CRBC) addressed the issue at the BBC.
Paul Midler of the China Game is doing a commendable job in debunking some of the wrong concepts Americans might have regarding the dependence of China on the US economy. He starts quoting a former speech writers of US president George W. Bush, David Frum at NPR:
“Probably no major economy has ever depended so much on one partner as China now depends on the United States. Eighty percent of China’s GDP derives from international trade, and the United States is far and away the top destination for Chinese merchandise exports.”
Well, we always knew that US presidents are seldom alone when they tell us nonsense. Paul Midler comes to his own equation:
International trade may account for most of China’s GDP and we may be China’s most significant trading partner, but the U.S. takes only one-fifth of China exports - that’s all – and we account for an even smaller proportion of profitability for China manufacturers.
Unfortunately, he still follows the argument that the largest part of China's economy is depending on export, while that argument is a much disputed assumption at best.

More, other, arguments at the China game.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

How do you come to the conclusion that "it's an assumption at best?"

Just because you don't personally have access to any supporting evidence, that doesn't necessarily make it an assumption.

It's funny how you "assume" that it's an assumption.