Coronavirus will not save the bike-sharing industry - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The bike-sharing industry sees a spike now contingency measures allow more people to hit the road in major cities, but business analist Ben Cavender expects the positive news to be short-lived, he tells Abacus News. "In the longer term, it will still be difficult for the industry to bounce back and grow,” says Cavender.

Abacus News:

The industry is still bruised overall, having suffered a major blow during the epidemic with most people confining themselves at home. The reprieve might not last, either. Some think the recent boost doesn’t mean that users will stick with bike-sharing once things go back to normal.

“We're likely to continue to see a short term bump in use of bike-sharing,” says Ben Cavender, analyst with China Market Research Group. “But longer term, it will still be difficult for the industry to bounce back and grow.” 

Cavender said that when the public health situation stabilizes and returns to normal, consumers will shift back to normal transportation habits. 

China’s bike-share sector saw rapid expansion in 2017 and 2018, when startups crammed Chinese cities with colorful bikes, eventually leading to a wave of bankruptcies and “bike graveyards.”

More at Abacus News.

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How bike-sharing might work - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Bike-sharing firms like Mobike and Ofo might work out, explains Jeffrey Towson, investment professor at the Peking University. "It is unusual but not crazy," he tells about the pervasive marketing strategy of bike-sharing. Independent assets moving around might just be the new thing.

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Bike-sharing: only at the start of their development - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Bike-sharing companies in China had a rough year, combining huge investments and limited returns. Smaller ones went bankrupt and market leaders Mobike and Ofo are rumored to discuss a merger. Peking University investment professor Jeffrey Towson still see enough room for success, he tells the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

For users, the cost of a ride is a pittance – about one yuan, or 15 US cents, for an hour – with much cheaper deals available. In a recent promotional campaign to lure riders from its competitors, Mobike offered unlimited rides for three months for only five yuan. Rival Ofo has a similar inventive scheme. 

Despite the unattractive economics, Jeffrey Towson, an investment professor at China’s elite Peking University, said bike sharing is “definitely not a fad”. 

“The economics of the business are becoming clearer. Rental revenue is still the foundation. Advertising revenue may be part of the picture,” he said. “Some Ofo bikes, for example, have had Minions advertisements on them. And perhaps delivery and e-commerce revenue will come in the future.” 

While Towson is bullish on the industry’s business prospects, he is not confident that more than a couple of companies can peacefully coexist. 

“If it was in the United States, I think it could end up as giants with many smaller players coexisting. But there seems to be a Chinese phenomenon to eliminate the competition by taking over the entire industry,” he said. 

One example in the car hailing business was the fierce rivalry between Didi Dache and Kuaidi Dache. In 2015 they merged to form Didi Chuxing, which absorbed Uber China the following year, becoming the only dominant player in the mainland Chinese market.

“Investors tend to step in to stop a price war because it is their money. It is better to spend the money on growth than fighting each other,” Towson said. 

Bloomberg first reported in October that Ofo and Mobike were in merger talks, but neither company would confirm the speculation. In November Zhu Xiaohu, a tech sector venture capitalist and early investor in Ofo, called for such a merger during a forum attended by Mobike co-founder Hu Weiwei. 

Despite pressure from investors, there is no sign that the two bike-sharing giants will merge any time soon. Ofo is raising another US$1 billion from investors, including Alibaba, and is expected to put any proposed merger plan with Mobike on hold, according to a number of news outlets, citing market sources. Ofo has declined to comment. 

“The merger of Ofo and Mobike is going to be a big topic of discussion in 2018,” Towson said. “But [whether it happens] depends on the availability of capital … and in China there is a lot of capital.”

More in the South China Morning Post

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Will bike-sharing firms merge? Not yet - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Will Mobike and Ofo, China's largest bike-sharing companies merge, like car-sharing firm did in the past? Not yet, says Peking University professor Jeffrey Towson. International expansions goes well, capital is freely available, and a crippling price war has not yet emerged, he argues.

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Why works the sharing economy in China? - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Huge usage of mobile phones, popular internet payment systems and 1.4 billion users are some of the elements that explain why the sharing economy in China is doing so well, says Jeffrey Towson, investment professor at the Peking University at the TV program China Matters.

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The real force behind the sharing economy - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

The winner among the sharing companies is not the one who sells most rides, but the one who is best in collecting smart data, says Peking University professor Jeffrey Towson to the New York Times. “The fight is no longer over who has the biggest fleet,” Towson says, “but who has the smartest fleet.”

The New York Times:

Cities around the world have embraced the sharing economy — Seoul, Amsterdam, Milan — but China is the first country to frame it as a “national priority.” While innovation can’t be conjured on demand, Beijing has financed start-up incubators, offered tax incentives, formed think tanks and kept foreign competitors away. “This is state capitalism,” says Jeffrey Towson, a private-equity investor and a professor of investment at Peking University. “When the government gives the green light, everybody follows.” That includes investors. Mobike and Ofo, which are financed by China’s biggest tech giants, Tencent and Alibaba, respectively, have raised roughly a billion dollars each in venture capital. (Didi Chuxing, the ride-sharing company that bought out Uber’s China operation last year, is even bigger — with $5.5 billion in financing and 450 million users across China.)... 

Every time consumers scan the QR code on a bicycle — or basketball, handbag, umbrella — they provide information about habits, locations, behaviors and payment histories. That’s invaluable not just to Tencent and Alibaba but also to city planners seeking precise information about where to build roads, bridges and subways. “The fight is no longer over who has the biggest fleet,” Towson says, “but who has the smartest fleet.”

More in the New York Times.

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Bike sharing: catching on - Paul Gillis

Paul Gillis

Bike sharing has met mixed reactions in China, including Beida professor Paul Gillis, who wondered earlier this year whether the investments made business sense, while they are already expanding internationally. The business case still has to be proven, Paul Gillis now admits on North Carolina Public Radio, but bike sharing has changed his urban life for the better.

North Carolina Public Radio:

This concept, dockless bike sharing, has exploded in China over the past two years. 

“Now, there are literally millions of these bicycles on the streets in China. And it has really transformed the urban living experience,” said Paul Gillis, a business professor at Peking University in Beijing. He says for short trips, for that last mile going from the train station to his office, he grabs a bike. 

“It’s much easier than trying to hail a car. The bad part has been that the literally millions of bicycles that are now in China litter the streets. And the sidewalks have become so crowded with these bicycles that it’s hard to walk around.” 

Despite being poorly regulated there, Gillis says bike sharing in China has been a huge positive overall: It’s easier to get around, and there’s less traffic and pollution in Beijing. “I think it’s one of the things that has changed my life in China for the better more than anything in the last 20 years that I’ve been there,” Gillis said.

More at North Carolina Public Radio.

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How bike-sharing differs from ride-sharing - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

After the wars, and eventual merger, of the car-sharing companies, attention has turned to the bike-sharing firms. But bike-sharing is fundamentally different, warns Peking University business professor Jeffrey Towson in E27, and history will not repeat itself. Bike-sharing is not part of the sharing economy, he explains.

E27:

Both companies have their apps, but Ofo lowers friction by linking the app to WeChat without having to download a separate app. The users can either register their mobile phone or log in via WeChat account and unlock bikes on the streets at their convenience. 

While many business analysts predict how the two rivals will merge eventually, Jeffrey Towson, consultant and professor at Guanghua Peking University, thinks otherwise. He explains why bike-sharing is nothing like ride-sharing of Didi and Uber. The professor compares the bike-sharing economy to a vending machine business than a ride-sharing one. 

“Unlike ride-sharing, bike-sharing does not have a network effect,” he says. “The ride-sharing experience is a two-sided network, in which additional riders increases the networks’ value to the drivers and each new driver increases to value each rider. Through customer rating and recording of wait-time, the service gradually improves as its user population grows.” 

“The problem with bike-sharing, however, is that there is no second population of drivers using the platforms and providing the bikes,” he adds. “The bikes are constantly replenished by companies themselves as opposed to each rider adding any value to the other riders. It seems that bike-sharing isn’t really part of the sharing economy.”

More in E27.

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