While banning Tiktok might be fair game, it’s not smart domestically in the US – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analyst Victor Shih, author of  Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation and director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy tells at UC San Diego Today. “From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game,” he says.

Victor Shih:

What’s the relationship between TikTok and the Chinese Communist Party?

TikTok is a private company, and it’s now registered offshore from China — but, of course, historically most of its operation has been in China. As of five or six years ago, maybe even a bit longer, the Chinese government has required large, private companies to have branches of the Chinese Communist Party within the company structure.

For the Chinese equivalent of TikTok, Douyin, there’s a party committee in the company. And the parent company, ByteDance, which is located in China, also has a Chinese Communist Party branch. Most of the people in the party committee would not be full-time government officials — they’re just workers or executives who had already belonged to the party. That’s actually a common thing to happen. You will soon be recruited into the party at a university or in the workplace, and a lot of people do it just to advance their careers.

There are certain requirements for joining the party, and the No. 1 requirement is that you have to obey the party no matter what. I think that’s where a lot of U.S. lawmakers and people in the government really have an issue.

More recently, within the past four years, the party has demanded top tech companies to give part of their shares to entities of the Chinese government. So China has sovereign wealth funds. Through that mechanism, the government becomes a minority shareholder of these tech companies, so then it can send members to the management boards of these tech companies, and these board members are full-time Chinese government officials.

How has this relationship between ByteDance and the party played into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s larger goals?

Xi Jinping recognizes the power of social media and the internet in general — not really as something to control people’s minds with, but certainly something to use to sway people’s opinions. He has ordered internet companies in China to work for the party on behalf of the party. It’s very well known that the Chinese counterpart of TikTok is ordered by the Chinese government to convey propaganda to users within China all the time, even if TikTok claims that it doesn’t do that for audiences outside of China.

Xi has also said that he wants users around the world, not just in China, to use Chinese technology. And of course, TikTok has been the most successful case of this, certainly on the software side: it’s used by over a billion users worldwide.

Is there reason for the U.S. to be legitimately concerned about how TikTok might make users’ personal data available to the Chinese government?

I don’t buy the argument that we should be alarmed how the Chinese government can get all this data on users from TikTok — because all the other internet platforms active in the U.S. already sell user data to data brokers, and China can obtain it that way. To be clear, I’m sure TikTok is feeding some data to the Chinese government; I’m just saying that it’s probably not that much worse than what they could do already using all the other sources of data.

The other worry is that TikTok is so powerful, and that it’s used by so many people that the people behind the app can bias the politics within the United States. I think that TikTok does have the potential to do that. But then, compare that with other people who are influencing opinion on social media. You have to ask yourself, “Who has done more damage to the quality of American democracy: Elon Musk or TikTok?”

Is the ban a wise move? How could it affect relations between the two countries?

It’s really difficult to assess because former government officials, sometimes at 21st Century China Center events, will say, “If only you knew what we knew, you would definitely support the ban.” But we don’t know what they know.

One consideration is that the Chinese government has banned pretty much all of our social media and search platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Google.

From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game. But of course, TikTok has great currency in the United States: people make a living off of TikTok, so a ban is going to affect them, and as a result, for domestic political reasons it may not be the smartest thing to do.

More at UC San Diego Today.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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What makes China’s apps different – Sharon Gai

 

Sharon Gai

Former Alibaba employee Sharon Gai, author of Ecommerce Reimagined: Retail and E-commerce in China, is an expert on how Western apps and those from China differ from each other. Now that Rednote, formerly known as Xiaohongshu, has become an alternative for Tiktok, she takes the opportunity to dive into this issue again in her vlog.

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The contentious future of CATL – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaier Kuo

The international march forward of China’s EV producers profoundly influences the supply chains. China veteran Kaiser Kuo looks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, especially at CATL, the market leader for batteries in China, and a magnet for geopolitical tensions, he writes at the WEForum.

Kaiser Kuo:

China’s rise as a superpower in the electric vehicle (EV) industry has reshaped global supply chains, and at the centre of this transformation is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL). As the world’s largest EV battery maker, CATL has become a critical player in the clean energy transition – and a lightning rod for geopolitical tensions. Co-chairman and co-founder Pan Jian of CATL, speaking recently at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, underscored the global nature of the EV revolution: “It’s not going to be a one-country effort in terms of EVs. It’s going to be a global effort.”…

The road ahead for CATL is strewn with obstacles. The Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and proposed bans on Chinese software – the very thing Pan credits for China’s edge in EVs – in US-sold vehicles are likely to complicate CATL’s operations. Furthermore, the Pentagon’s designation could deter US automakers from deepening partnerships with CATL, despite the company’s importance to their supply chains.

Yet CATL’s leadership remains confident. Pan’s optimism reflects a broader belief in the inevitability of EVs and the necessity of global collaboration. “It’s a massive cultural shift,” he said, referring to the transformation of the auto industry, “but it’s going to happen.”

As the EV revolution accelerates, CATL’s ability to navigate these geopolitical and market complexities will shape not only its future, but also the contours of the global energy transition. Its story is emblematic of a world grappling with the contradictions of competition, cooperation and the urgent need for sustainability.

More at the WEForum.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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How is the EU-China relationship moving on – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein (left)

Business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, dives into the future of EU-China relations, as Trump is getting settle for his second term as US president. He discusses the currently hostile relationship between some of the EU leaders and how the European continent can move ahead with a better relationship with China, more independent from the United States, he tells Volker Friedrich.

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Youth prefer government jobs as they look for security – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

While in the past youth looked for jobs in the private sector or at foreign companies, they now look for government jobs as they offer more security, says Arthur Kroeber, leading economist and author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®. Most graduates feel the sluggish Chinese economy will continue for some time, he says on CNBC.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request list.

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How will Trump negotiate with China – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein at WION

‘Trump will use a shock and awe strategy to control China, similar to his tactics with Denmark, Greenland, Canada, Panama, and Mexico,’ says Shaun Rein, Founder and Managing Director, China Market Research Group (CMR) in an interview at WION. Tariffs, TikTok, and many other issues are hanging over the negotiations. But in the end, both countries are better off working together, says Shaun Rein.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How US semiconductor sanctions helped China’s AI startups – Winston Ma

 

Winston Ma

One unintended effect of the US sanctions against China’s semiconductor industry is that its AI startups have benefited greatly from them, says Winston Ma, author of The Digital War: How China’s Tech Power Shapes the Future of AI, Blockchain, and Cyberspace in the Bastille Post. 

The Bastille Post:

A prime example is the Chinese-developed DeepSeek AI chatbot, whose developer claims to have spent only a fraction of the development costs compared to companies like OpenAI. In some tests, it closely matched OpenAI’s ChatGPT model and outperformed Meta’s Llama AI model.

“You could have said that thanks to the sanction of the chips, lots of Chinese AI startups focused on developing AI applications in a more efficient way, using much fewer GPU chips than the U.S. counterparts,” said Winston Ma, author of “The Digital War.”

One area where Chinese tech companies have focused their efforts is humanoid robotics.

“[If you went to] the recent CES Las Vegas Exhibition, you will find Chinese manufacturers dominate the exhibition of smart robotics. It’s interesting that ‘Made in China’ was started when China was at the low end of the global supply chain. But after two, three decades, the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem, especially relating to electronics, has become the strongest in the world,” said Ma.

More in the Bastille Post.

Winston Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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BioTech and HealthTech: pipelines for upcoming unicorns – Rupert Hoogewerf

 

Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher, presented on Wednesday in Beijing “the Hurun Future Unicorns – Global Gazelles Index 2024, a list of the world’s start-ups founded in the 2000s but not yet listed on a public exchange and most likely to ”go unicorn”,(meaning hitting a valuation of US$1bln) within three years,” writes the ECNS.

ECNS:

Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher, noted that Hurun Gazelles represent the most exciting startups in the world that are most likely to “go unicorn” within three years. Their animal counterpart is famous for agility and incredible bursts of speed, reaching speeds of close to 100 km/h. In much the same way, Hurun Gazelles have to run fast, or – like their animal counterparts – they may get eaten and never make it to a Hurun Unicorn.

“The idea behind the Hurun Gazelles is to help them find more investors, strategic partners and service providers as well as encourage the founders to think bigger, grow faster and go further,” noted Hoogewerf, adding that over a quarter of Hurun Gazelles are already leveraging AI to transform sectors, with fintech, blockchain, and SaaS seeing the most disruption.

Specifically, BioTech and HealthTech represent the hottest pipeline for the next generation of unicorns, the Hurun Gazelles. Innovations in medical devices, BioTech, and digital health are transforming disease treatment, diagnostics, and patient care, with China and the U.S. leading this healthcare revolution, Hoogewerf explained.

According to the List, China has more Hurun Gazelles than the rest of the world combined except for the U.S. In the past five years, China has seen the number of Hurun Gazelles more than tripling from 70 to 258. BioTech and semiconductors stand out as the industries with the most number of future Chinese unicorns. By city, the “Big Two” are Shanghai and Beijing, followed by Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Suzhou.

More at the ECNS.

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Expect an uptick in joint ventures – Mark Schaub

 

Mark Schaub

China lawyer Mark Schaub expects an uptick in joint ventures in 2025, and in his latest China Chit-chat, he explains the pros and cons of this legal vehicle. “Due to geopolitics and business uncertainty,” he writes.

Mark Schaub:

I am also predicting an uptick in JVs in China – due to geopolitics and business uncertainty but mostly because I have a book out on JVs. Available at all good bookstores –Amazon

The first insight of the book is that while the world loves a good, clean, linear story life is chaotic and messy. The classic description in most case studies is the plucky international company sees an opportunity/threat, finds a partner, negotiates terms, and then signs on the dotted line.

It is not like that in real life – the JV process is more like throwing dirty (often with skid marks) laundry into a washing machine: messy, repetitive, and often something goes missing while it is happening and no-one knows how or where it went.

Question 1: Is a JV the Right Solution for me? For my partner?

JVs are invariably a solution to a problem – an opportunity that could not be passed up? A problem too complex to tackle alone? A way to enter a new market? Method to gain access to intellectual property? Reduce risk by shared funding?

The question of whether a JV is the right solution has two parts. First is a JV the right fit for you? Second, what is the motivation of your partner? Are they equally invested?

Invariably the partner initiating a JV believes teaming up is better than going it alone but sometimes they find out they were happier alone. Many JVs fall apart because they were doomed to fail from the start because no one understood the motivations.

Mark Schaub answers four more questions during this China Chit-chat.

Mark Schaub is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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Expect the digital yuan back on China’s 2025 agenda – Winston Ma

 

Winston Ma

The introduction of the digital yuan didn’t make much headlines in 2024, but financial expert Winston Ma, an adjunct law professor at New York University and former managing director at China’s sovereign wealth fund, expects the debate will be back in 2025, he tells the Cointelegraph.

The Cointelegraph:

China’s central bank digital currency was once one of the industry’s hottest topics, but 2024 saw a relatively quieter year for the digital yuan.

Still, Winston Ma, an adjunct law professor at New York University and former managing director at China’s sovereign wealth fund, predicts a strong push for the digital yuan’s overseas expansion in 2025…

Despite … setbacks, China remains committed to its digital finance ambitions. At the third plenum, which is China’s most authoritative meeting with President Xi Jin Ping in attendance, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China announced plans for a renewed focus on the internationalization of its currency, including advancing the digital yuan…

Then in November, Shanghai, China’s financial hub and most populous city, unveiled plans to boost digital finance, including improving digital yuan acceptance.

Ma said that the digital yuan expansion could be met with resistance from the US.

“[This] may be a year where China’s CBDC overseas expansion efforts, especially with the BRICS countries, would meet with challenges from [Donald Trump], as he indicated in his recent tweet about defending the US dollar supremacy,” Ma says…

China has tested retail cross-border digital yuan payments with Singapore. It’s also part of the mBridge project, a wholesale cross-border experiment with the central banks of Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia.

More in the Cointelegraph.

Winston Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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What challenges BYD is facing – Arnold Ma

 

Arnold Ma

2024 was a bumper year for BYD, but it might face tough challenges to maintain its current lead in the automotive market, says marketing analyst Arnold Ma, founder of Qumin, in Campaign Asia. “Initiatives such as reducing carbon footprints, ensuring fair labour practices, and engaging in community development that resonate positively with stakeholders should continue to stay in focus,” he writes.

Arnold Ma:

Looking ahead, BYD’s brand prospects appear very positive and robust, but certain challenges must be addressed to maintain momentum: Imminent tariffs from the EU and potential ones from the US pose risks to BYD’s international sales. To mitigate their impact, BYD is investing in local production facilities, such as the planned factory in Hungary, to circumvent import duties and strengthen its presence in key markets. In markets where Chinese brands face scepticism, BYD should focus on building trust through quality assurance, customer service excellence, and transparent communication. Tailoring marketing messages to address local consumer concerns and preferences will be crucial to them. Continuous investment in R&D is essential to stay ahead of competitors. BYD will likely continue to prioritise advancements in battery technology, autonomous driving, and connectivity features to meet evolving consumer expectations and regulatory standards. BYD’s commitments to sustainability and ethical practices can enhance its brand reputation globally. Initiatives such as reducing carbon footprints, ensuring fair labour practices, and engaging in community development that resonate positively with stakeholders should continue to stay in focus.

More at Campaign Asia.

Arnold Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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Is later retirement a good idea for China’s economy? – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

China will start to delay its current retirement age from the start of 2025 in monthly steps for the next 15 years. But business analyst Ashley Dudarenok wonders if changing the country’s very low retirement age is a good idea, for example now the youth unemployment rate is already very low. This and other arguments in her vlog.

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Deflation and layoffs will drag down China’s economy in the short run – Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

While he remains optimistic about China’s economy in the long run, he foresees a rough time in most of 2025 as deflation and layoffs melt away the financial stimuli of the past months, tells business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC’s Squawk Box. He sees a recovery only in nine to twelve months as consumer confidence is not going up in 2025.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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The Yunnan community markets – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Most visitors to China know the larger cities, but marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok dives into Yunnan, this time the community-based agricultural markets that are so different from the cities.

 

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The dawn of a new reality – Alvin Wang Graylin

 

Alvin Wang Graylin

Innovation expert Alvin Wang Graylin discusses his latest book Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, and explains to an audience at the Future Porty why the next generation in the next two or three decades will enter a new reality.

 

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Why Xi Jinping turned against Miao Hua – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China’s President Xi  Jinping turned against his erstwhile handpicked ally Admiral Miao Hua, a member of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). Political analyst Victor Shih explains at CNN this change in Xi’s long-standing struggle against corruption.

CNN:

As the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China heats up, the PLA Navy has also seen a drastic increase in the procurement of warships and other weapons, providing ample opportunities for corruption, said Victor Shih, a political science professor at the University of San Diego.

But there could be another potential reason behind Miao’s downfall, Shih said, for “being too obvious in his attempt to foster a faction in the military.”

Xi has repeatedly warned against the forming of factions in both the party and the military. “Of course, the only person who is allowed to do that is Xi himself,” Shih added.

Miao is seen by some analysts as having recommended multiple associates in the Navy for promotions to key positions, including Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin and Defense Minister Dong Jun.

The announcement of Miao’s investigation came a day after the Financial Times reported that Dong had been placed under investigation for corruption, citing current and former US officials. The Defense Ministry dismissed the report as “sheer fabrication,” and days later, Dong made a public appearance at a security forum…

Miao’s downfall comes less than a year after former defense minister Li Shangfu was removed from the CMC.

The powerful body had six members – all deemed as Xi’s loyalists – serving under the top leader when he began his unprecedented third term two years ago. If Miao is also removed, it would leave two vacant seats.

Shih, the expert on Chinese elite politics, said many dictators, from former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin to Mao, have eventually turned against their own proteges.

“Once all of their real competitors are gone, a dictator can never think to themselves: ‘Oh well, all the threats are gone. I can just relax.’ Because they always think that new threats could emerge, including from people who once were very close to them. This happens over and over again,” he said.

More at CNN.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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