At last, Beijing might get serious about North Korea - Paul French

Paul French

China has been trying to ignore its unruly neighbor North Korea for as long as it was possible. And North Korea was more interested in talking to the US, and less to China. But Beijing might at last be changing its tune, says Paul French, author of North Korea: State of Paranoia (Asian Arguments) to the Washington Post.

Paul French:

Beijing’s current thinking may be that responding to North Korea’s recent bouts of belligerency with a coal ban punishes Pyongyang more directly (i.e., right in the wallet) than the Chinese have previously been willing to do while also letting Washington know it is not afraid to get a lot tougher with an old, but frustrating, ally. Though it’s worth considering that Beijing, with its horrendous pollution problems, is itself looking to diversify away from coal-fired power, so maybe there is no great sacrifice on the Chinese part here. 

Beijing’s recent policy of studiously ignoring Kim hasn’t worked. Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited locations as far flung as Fiji, Belarus and Zimbabwe but has never taken the one-hour shuttle from Beijing to Pyongyang. The coal ban then is the start of what may be a series of harsher measures that could include finally getting tough on North Korean bank accounts in China, putting limits on Chinese firms doing business in the country, restrictions on North Korean officials transiting through China, and a demand that Pyongyang rejoin the Six Party Talks or risk losing essential aid supplies. 

Trump, like President Obama before him, may be right that the way to contain North Korea is through Chinese pressure. But perhaps it is the events that Trump’s ascendancy appear to have unleashed from Pyongyang that will finally force Beijing to get seriously tough with their neighbor.

More in the Washington Post.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more strategy experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Related articles

• China suspends North Korean coal imports, striking at regime's financial lifeline
• Donald Trump Agrees to Honor the 'One China' Policy
• After Silent Treatment, Trump Caves In To Chinese
• China Deals A Major Blow To North Korea
• Did Kim assassination plot wake up China?

How M&S got it wrong in China - Paul French

Paul French

Fashion retailer M&S got it all wrong in China as they focused on non-exciting customers, says retail analyst Paul French to Bloomberg. M&S decided to close down some of its China operation to cut their losses, after a very ambitious start in 2008 in Shanghai.

Bloomberg:

Marks & Spencer opened its first Chinese store in Shanghai in 2008 under then-CEO Stuart Rose. Last year, Rose’s successor Marc Bolland closed five smaller regional stores and focused the company’s efforts on Shanghai. M&S currently has ten stores in China, according to its website. It also sells products through Chinese e-commerce sites TMall.com and JD.com. 

“M&S have gotten everything wrong in China,” said Paul French, an independent consultant to western brands in China. “Their U.K. customer base doesn’t really exist there. It’s a more aspirational culture and Britain’s high-end brands have fared better.”

More in Bloomberg.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more strategy experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Related articles

• Marks & Spencer Black Friday and Cyber Monday deal predictions
• M&S senior director leaves after year on maternity leave
• M&S to cut 500 head-office jobs next week -Sky
• Starbucks names China CEO, expects to double store count by 2021

The Roma community in old Shanghai - Paul French

Paul French

Author Paul French has added yet another subject to his long list of current and historical affairs with his latest book Gypsies of Shanghai: The Roma Community of Late 1930s and 1940s Shanghai and Their Role in the City's Entertainment Industry. The book is small and cheap, Paul adds on his weblog, but it illustrates the amazing diversity of pre-war Shanghai.

Paul French:

I’ve worked for some time trying to find traces of the old Roma community of Shanghai. The Roma of Shanghai in the first half of the twentieth century are a significantly under-researched community, not falling easily into any official classifications and also suffering the prejudices and discrimination common to the Roma in our own time too. However, there was a thriving Roma community in old Shanghai that was engaged in business and the entertainment industry and while we may not have as much information on them as we do on other groups of Shanghailanders they are no less important in understanding the total ethnic make up of the city, its International Settlement and French Concession.

More at China Rhyming.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you interested in more stories by Paul French at our website? Do check out this list.

Related articles

• Moderators at the China Speakers Bureau (updated)
• Watch: Mesmerising timelapse video of Shanghai
• China Film Co Shares Jump 44% After Largest Entertainment Industry IPO
• Inside Shanghai Tower: China's tallest skyscraper claims to be world's greenest
• Rediscovering Shanghai & reliving wonderful memories

More merging shipping lines? Wait and see - Paul French

Paul French

China´s state-owned shipping industry has already seen massive mergers over the past 18 months, and this week the State Council - the country´s highest administrative body - announced more mergers. But China veteran Paul French warns in Splash 247 to read too much into the announcement. Just an announcement does not mean it is a done deal.

Splash247:

The council – China’s de facto cabinet – also urged SOEs to streamline resources and assets via asset restructuring and swaps, and establishing strategic alliances. 

Companies that record losses for three straight years and fail to follow government guidelines risk being liquidated, the State Council warned. 

China’s shipping scene has seen massive contraction in the past 18 months with mergers between Cosco and China Shipping as well as between Sinotrans&CSC and China Merchants Energy Shipping. 

Commenting on the news veteran China watcher and Splash contributor Paul French cautioned as to how firmly the authorities would follow through with their pronouncements. 

“Any move from China’s powerful State Council to reform and restructure the country’s SOEs is welcome. However, we should remember, similar announcements have been made over the last two and half decades and rarely been followed through,” French said.

More in Splash247.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Measuring China´s growth - Paul French

Paul French

Experts use different measurements to gauge China´s economic growth, as the official GDP figure is often seen with suspicion. But other measurements like electricity usage and railway transportation also have their limitations, warns China veteran Paul French in Splash 24/7

Paul French:

There are explanations for the poorer metrics of electricity consumption and rail freight movements (both of which are generally reliable numbers) – the slowdown in construction has a significant knock-on as regards power consumption and rail transport. Back in the mid-2000s construction and heavy industry drove electricity use growth and both of these are in retreat at the moment. Similarly steel production declined 2% last year as construction slumped. With so much continued talk of ‘ghost cities’ this is not necessarily a bad thing and should (and is) stimulating the property market as supply currently matches demand to a greater degree than any time in the last decade. 

For those that watch transportation metrics closely it should be noted that while rail freight is down, road transportation is booming. Highways now carry 79% of total freight now, up from 72% in 2006, and highway traffic rose 6% last year. Quite simply rail freight movements are no longer the key indicator they once were. Road freight movement is harder to quantify as it involves vast numbers of small trucking operators, but still it is growing. Traditionally 50% of rail freight cargoes have been coal and the decline in heavy industry as well as the rise in non-coal fired generators means a decline in that key sector. 

So, in conclusion, what can we say of the Chinese economy in the first half of 2016? Stable growth seems a fair analysis though, looking to the rest of the year, a pick up in non-consumer sectors hasn’t occurred as many thought and that could mean a drag on growth and, a major concern for the party state, a rise in unemployment. This could mean a meagre 4% growth for 2016 even with rising consumer spending. This may give succour to the China bears to some degree, but it certainly doesn’t indicate a collapse scenario that some have been predicting.

More at Splash 24/7.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Related articles

• How much debt is too much in China?

China struggling to become a diplomatic force - Paul French

Paul French

China is not only struggling to manage its unruly financial markets, North-Korea´s latest nuclear test shows that international diplomacy is not yet one of its strong point, says political analyst Paul French in America Magazine. Managing North-Korea from Beijing is no longer possible.

America Magazine:

North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006. Wednesday’s test registered as a 5.1 earthquake, which analysts say makes the bomb larger than anything the rogue nation has exploded before, but not large enough to be a true hydrogen bomb, which is many times more powerful than a simple atomic bomb. 

Regardless of the bomb’s size, the damage to relations to North Korea’s relationship with China, upon which it still relies for food and numerous basic raw materials, is clear. “Since the last test in 2013 China has cooled considerably in its friendship with North Korea. Now, after the fourth test, they are clearly mad as hell with Kim and Pyongyang. Many in the Chinese leadership feel the regime in Pyongyang is blackmailing them with nuclear tests in return for increased aid. China is focused on its economic downturn and doesn't need a troublesome neighbor,” Paul French, the author of North Korea: State of Paranoia, told America via Facebook Messenger. 

While its management of North Korea was once a regional bargaining chip for Beijing, its lack of influence there is instead a growing problem. 

“Whilst China is an economic superpower it has not yet emerged as a diplomatic superpower. This is an opportunity for them to step up, reconvene and lead a new round of Six-Party Talks and, at the same time, work closely with America to find an Iran-style solution to North Korea. They could play this as a win, get international kudos and work closely with the US. So far it seems they will fume in private, be mealy-mouthed in public and squander another chance to seriously take the lead in regional and world affairs,” French said.

More in America Magazine.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Happy New Year from Pyongyang - Paul French

Paul French

North-Korea´s lastest nuclear test came not really as a surprise, writes Pyongyang-watcher Paul French. And they might most likely get what they wanted: a resumption of the 6-party talks, led by China, he writes for Reuters.

Paul French:

Last year was a tough one for North Korea’s economy and people. With world attention focussed on the Syrian crisis the UN reported that aid donations to the North were 50 percent down on previous years. Not just food but also fuel, fertilizer and pharmaceuticals. Keeping the lights on and people fed has been tough. After the last nuclear test in 2013 Pyongyang called for a resumption of the Six Party Talks, but it never happened. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, on a visit to Beijing, agreed with the Chinese that talks should be resumed, though this may be interpreted as a reward for bad behavior on Pyongyang’s part. Traditionally the resumption of the talks has been matched with resumed higher levels of aid shipments. Hungry people are unhappy people and probably the biggest single potential threat to Kim Jong-un’s regime. Resumed and increased food aid shipments would ameliorate this threat somewhat.
So Kim Jong-un’s bomb – whether it turns out to be an H-Bomb or not – has got our attention. The United Nations will meet to consider new sanctions against the DPRK but it’s hard to see what new sanctions they can impose. It’s equally hard to see a stubborn Pyongyang caring. The more interesting part of the equation after this test is China. President Xi Jinping has noticeably not had that much to say about North Korea and, though the North often ignores Beijing, it doesn’t like being ignored by the bigger neighboring one-party state. China consistently, and again today, says it wants a “stable” North Korea. Beijing analysts have been watching the mass of Syrian refugees trudging across Eastern Europe towards Germany with some alarm. It does not want an unstable or totally collapsed regime in North Korea sending millions across the Yalu River seeking sanctuary in northeast China. Beijing is quite open about not wanting a refugee crisis on its borders.
It seems likely that the Six Party Talks process may be resumed now, led by Chinese diplomatic efforts. China, for one, can live with a nuclear enabled North Korea but it does not want to countenance an unstable state next door. 

More in Reuters.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Related articles

• North Korea has a hydrogen bomb, says Kim Jong-un
• U.N. chief says his trip to North Korea still "under discussions"

North Korea: clueless about economic reform - Paul French

Paul French

The execution of North-Korea´s vice-premier Choe Yong Gon shows again we should not have too much hope for China-style economic reforms, writes Paul French, author of North Korea: State of Paranoia, for Reuters. "There are no coherent ideas about economic reform."

Paul French:

Choe’s death, which reportedly occurred in May and under the direct order of the supreme leader, is of particular interest to those seeking to discover what, if any, policies Kim may have to reboot the North’s failed economy. Choe came to some prominence in the mid-2000s when he represented Pyongyang in breakthrough trade talks with Seoul. He was also seen as prominent in the 2004 opening ceremony of the Kaesong industrial zone, a factory park run with Seoul that is the last remaining joint project of the two countries. 

Both the North-South economic cooperation talks and the Kaesong project were relics of Kim’s father’s brief flirtation with economic reform. The reforms were announced in 2002, when North Korea’s economic situation had become dire. There were food shortages, industry had grinded to a halt, aid donations were falling because of the political impasse over the North’s restarted nuclear program and donor fatigue had set in following the horrific famine of the 1990s. Despite this catalogue of disasters, Pyongyang had always resisted reform. When China’s leader Deng Xiaoping told Kim Il Sung that China’s reforms were a window to the West, Kim replied: “When you open a window, flies come in.” 

Still, the 2002 reforms - including wage and pricing changes, greater marketisation, a looser agricultural policy, reform of  the Public Distribution System (rationing) and a Chinese-style special economic zone in the city of Sinuiju - were the first real reforms to touch upon the domestic economy. But the reform process, described as “perestroika à la Pyongyang,” was disjointed and ultimately failed. The reforms were incomplete; at best, failures and, at worst, the cause of further economic deterioration. The Sinuiju experiment was completely delinked from any other economic activity in the country and went nowhere fast. 

It remains unclear from where within the closed world of Pyongyang the reform impetus sprung. It is assumed that Kim Jong Il, “Dear Leader” and father of the current leader, was the instigator, though, among his then-inner circle, it seems Choe was a champion of greater openness. The failure of the reforms could not be apportioned to the Dear Leader, and so others, such as Choe, had to shoulder the blame. Strike One against Choe.

More at Reuters.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.
  Are you interested in more stories by Paul French? Do check out this list. 

Related articles

• North Korea to Set Clocks to Its Own Time
• Kim Il Sung cuts new figure
• North Korea's new growth industry: Enormous bronze Kim Jong Il statues
• No sex, drugs or rock'n'roll - a North Korean gap year

Why North-Korea failed from the start - Paul French

Paul French

Author Paul French of North Korea: State of Paranoia reviews for the Washington Post. Blaine Harden´s latest book on North Korea The Great Leader and the Fighter Pilot: The True Story of the Tyrant Who Created North Korea and The Young Lieutenant Who Stole His Way to Freedom.

Paul French:

Harden makes some good points. Wartime antagonisms with the Chinese communists led Kim to develop a long-term, visceral dislike for Mao. The feeling was seemingly mutual. But with Moscow only remotely engaged in the Korean War (the U.S.S.R. mostly limited itself to sending supplies, political advisers and, important for this tale, MiGs), Mao felt he had to be involved. He sent his “volunteers” to bolster Kim’s flagging army in Korea, allowing the former Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek, who had fled the mainland, the breathing space to reinforce the fledgling defenses of Taiwan against Beijing. By the end of the war in Korea, Fortress Taiwan was far better prepared to repel an invasion from the mainland, and America had moved toward supporting Taiwan militarily. 

Of course tyrants have pasts, and, as Harden points out, Kim’s was rather unexceptional. His guerrilla-fighter credentials have been overstated. Rarely a master of military tactics, he was instead a master of the Stalinist power playbook — self-elevation, rewriting history, demanding fealty and purging those slow to offer it. Like Stalin, Kim grasped his moment, swept aside his challengers, flattered his supporters and became supreme. Harden also shows that the U.S. carpet-bombing of North Korea during the war was brutal and its effectiveness questionable. Yet it gave Kim a legitimacy and a narrative of American brutality that echoes through the North’s early years of construction to the present day. Pitted against the story of the Great Leader’s ascendancy is that of No Kum Sok, an airman in the North trained to fly MiGs by Soviet pilots. His daring escape, with the prize of a Soviet MiG to deliver to the Americans, is thrilling stuff. However, it is No’s long-standing distrust of Kim and his nascent regime that is important. The official North Korean narrative admits no dissension, no opposition. No is living proof that it did exist in the early days of the regime. 

Harden describes how Kim became marginalized as the Sino-Soviet split evolved and communist fraternalism collapsed. Both Stalin and Mao came to regard Kim as a marginal figure in the communist world. From the start Kim’s kingdom faced economic challenges that it was not ideologically equipped to solve. The Stalinist self-sufficiency blueprint didn’t work. South Korea’s emergence from devastation and military rule to become a booming Asian Tiger economy and vibrant democracy took time and masked the discrepancies between the Koreas for a while. Kim was never able to build a self-sufficient nation and had to tap Beijing and Moscow for aid, soft loans and arms.

More in the Washington Post.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.

Are you interested in more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out our latest list
.

Related articles

• 35 countries where the U.S. has supported fascists, drug lords and terrorists.
• China to invite foreign militaries to take part in parade
• CHINA - JAPAN - Beijing invites Shinzo Abe to ceremonies for the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II

Obesity measures are lagging, despite more awareness - Paul French

+Paul French 

Paul French, author of Fat China: How Expanding Waistlines are Changing a Nation  summarizes for The Guardian what the government has done over the past decade to fight obesity. He is underwhelmed.

Paul French:

Chinese healthcare planners are now far more aware of obesity, and the medical problems associated with it, than they were even just five years ago when Ji Chengye, of the Child and Adolescent Health Section of the China Preventive Medicine Association, declared that “China has entered the era of obesity”. It is now a subject of many studies, media speculation and greater educational awareness. In large part the government has blamed inactivity and sedentary lifestyles as the major culprit. Tian Ye, director of the China Institute of Sports Science, has said the issue of weight and physical decline can be attributed partially to the lack of sports activities among young people but funding for more mass-participation programmes was never forthcoming. 

Across the board – from exercise to diet – specific funding for obesity awareness programmes remains low to non-existent. In China’s system of rigid central planning of budgetary allocations awareness of a problem can grow, but funding and new approaches are far slower to emerge, due to five year planning cycles. In 2009, as part of China’s $586bn (£384bn) fiscal stimulus package, the central government budgeted for billions more to go into the healthcare system, in the countryside and cities. However, none of this went to obesity prevention. While the number of researchers in the field has increased ground level activity remains small. According to China’s National Institute of Nutrition and Food Hygiene in Beijing, the country has just over 10,000 qualified nutritionists nationwide, but needs at least four million, based on international standards of one nutritionist for every 300 people. 

China still remains legislation-lite when it comes to obesity. In 2007 when new obesity stats made headline news some initiatives were launched – the central government ordered the building of more playgrounds and passed a law requiring students to exercise or play sports for an hour a day at school. While more playgrounds were built they were often not well thought out and did not encourage more active play, while many schools have disregarded the exercise regulations (often due to parental criticisms of wasted time away from academic studies) or circumvented them by using the time for drilling or simple mass playground exercises. 

Similarly, a government initiative to institute mass exercises in workplaces was largely ignored by employers as inappropriate when staff have customers to deal with. At the same time the Chinese Nutrition Society launched a campaign – Eat Smart at School – aimed at cultivating healthy eating practices in schools. This emphasis on school meals followed research in Hong Kong where staple lunchtime dishes such as fried rice and noodles were found to be high in fat, cholesterol and sodium. In 2006 Hong Kong launched a campaign entitled EatSmart@school.hk to promote territory-wide healthy eating. The campaign included issuing new nutritional guidelines on school lunch for primary school students to guide caterers to provide balanced diets to 300,000 students in some 600 whole-day primary schools. China followed suit, though only schools in wealthier urban areas have realistically been able to afford the new lunches. 

However, despite debate, there has been no adoption of any formal legislation regarding TV advertising of fast food or requirements to introduce additional warning labeling to products in the HFSS category.

More in the Guardian.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in a speakers´ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on political change at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check our latest list.
 

Related articles

• Documentary on China's Air Pollution Spurs National Debate, Government Censorship
• Political experts at the China Speakers Bureau
• China: Beijing's Mayor Declares City 'Unlivable' Due to Life-Choking Smog [VIDEO]
• Support for China-led development bank grows despite US opposition

Did Pyongyang attack Sony? - Paul French

+Paul French 

High-end cyber unites, attacks on Sony, threats with nuclear weapons. North-Korea has not been short of themes for Hollywood new movies, but Pyongyang watcher Paul French doubts whether Kim Jong-un likes recent movie releases, he writes for Reuters.

Paul French:

It seems Kim Jong-un doesn’t like the new Seth Rogan movie, The Interview. Not surprising really, it’s a comedy about a fictitious plot to assassinate him. Now Sony Pictures has been the subject of a massive cyber-attack disrupting the company’s communications system and leaking upcoming movies – no more rogue DPRK nukes to keep us awake at night, but rather illicit downloads of a new version of Annie! 

North Korea has, unsurprisingly, been accused of mounting the attack and, equally unsurprisingly, denies it. But they may be on shaky ground. Last summer, when the movie’s plot was first announced, Pyongyang immediately responded, called on the U.S. government to ban the film and threatening a “merciless and resolute” response. In what may be a first for the United Nations, the secretary general was personally informed, by the DPRK’s ambassador, that a rom-com was an ‘act of war.’ The UN has declined to get involved in debating mild comedy... 

So they don’t like The Interview at all, they don’t like Seth Rogen much, and it won’t be playing at the regional multiplexes in Manpo, Hamhung or Wonsan because no American films will be playing in these towns and there are no multiplexes anyway. But do they hate it enough to cyber-attack Sony Pictures? 

Pyongyang says no, but there’s a lot of reasons to think yes. North Korea certainly has substantial cyber-warfare resources developed both in-house and, probably, with the help of the Chinese military and helpful hackers. As South Korea’s technical capabilities, brands and software engineering have become world class, so the North has had to try and keep up. While this has not meant a computer in every home (or even more than a handful in every town), a broadband nation or any North Korea conglomerate the equivalent of an LG or a Samsung, it has meant a highly developed military cyber-attack unit. The North is constantly prepared for war with the South and rendering Seoul electronically “dark” is a vital component of this. Additionally, cyber warfare suits the economically distraught DPRK – hi-tech cyber warriors with laptops don’t need masses of gasoline the way tanks, warships and fighter jets annoyingly do. That Sony is the American entertainment subsidiary of the Japanese parent may well have encouraged any decision to do a little cyber mischief making – Pyongyang remains in a state of insult slinging and perpetual tension with Tokyo. An American company with a Japanese parent embarrassed and rendered impotent electronically – a double whammy for the North.

More at Reuters.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you interested in more stories by Paul French? Do check our latest list here.  

Related articles

• North Korea says "wait and see" when asked about Sony hacking
• There can only be one Kim Jong-un: North Korea bans citizens from having same name as their Dear Leader
• Why North Korea might not be to blame for the Sony Pictures hack
• North Korea may have hacked Sony for Kim Jong-un baiting in The Interview
• Sony's waiting game with North Korea
• 'Wanna kill Kim?' DPRK isn't denying hack in revenge for Sony hasbara flick

The Treaty of Versailles, and the betrayal of China - Paul French

+Paul French 

The world remembers today at November 11, the end of World War I. Historian Paul French looks back at the Treaty of Versailles and how the betrayal of China still has its effect on its diplomacy today, almost 100 years on. From the China Economic Review.

Paul French:

To understand the nature of China today we need a starting point. Some fixed moment in history from which we can draw a straight (-ish) line to help us understand Beijing’s current diplomatic obsessions and phobias, its back brain reasonings and historical knee jerks. The 1911 revolution, Xinhai, is perhaps most obvious – the moment China chose to reject dynastical turns of history and monarchy and to embrace republicanism and the modern in many forms (not just political systems, but railways, roads, urban planning and a greater engagement with international culture, arts and sciences). But that doesn’t explain China now and its obvious reticence, despite the official rhetoric, to fully engage with international cultural trends and social currents. 

Despite the flying start of 1911, something interjected a note of caution, a pulling back from full engagement to a more overtly nationalistic and restricted sense of the nation of China and the notion of Chineseness. An event that presaged a sense of self-isolation and retreat from globalism for so long and, in many arenas, still remains steadfastly in force today, front and centre in Beijing’s geo-political thinking. A moment when China decided to pursue its own, largely uninfluenced, course of development, which necessarily required a top down, nationally agreed, narrative of history and an accepted cast of characters both good and bad. 

That moment, I would argue, was China’s severe disappointment at the Paris Peace Conference convened in the French capital in 1919 to remake the world in the wake of the “Great War” of 1914-1918. It was billed as an attempt to rewrite wrongs and serve up international justice by the victors to the losers. But China, which saw itself as having been on the side of right and a victorious power in that conflict, was not to sign the resultant Treaty of Versailles designed to remake the world. Rather China was to feel let down and betrayed by those that claimed to be allies. China’s young intellectuals felt it essential to protest this betrayal and, being unable to force the world’s “Great Powers” (Britain, France and, the latterly emergent, United States) to support China’s claims in Paris, turn in on itself and do the only thing it could – remake Chinese politics in the face of international intransigence... 

Paris 1919 and the Treaty of Versailles is the moment when the West ceded the high ground in the China debate. It was a moment when the iniquities of the Opium Wars, and the “land grabbism” of the treaty ports, could have been reversed. When London, Paris and Washington could have sided with China against an aggressor and partially made right previous wrongs. It would not have been a perfect solution, nor a full atonement, but it would have been the morally right thing to do. And it was not a difficult thing to do – the awarding of a piece of territory to the country it belonged to may have temporarily annoyed Tokyo but it would not necessarily have permanently poisoned the well, either. Japanese militarists may have been warned off of China and been rather more circumspect in 1932 and 1937 than they were. Sino-Japanese relations may have been something entirely different from now, something more positive, more collaborative. It’s a great “what if?” of history, and in no way excuses either the excesses of Japan in the 1930s and 1940s in China nor the dark years of Maoism, but it does offer an alternative pathway for both nations; a path that could have meant, ultimately, a more stable, less rancorous East Asia than we are faced with today. 

The other side of the coin of course is that we should remember that if Britain, France and America had made decisions more morally in 1919 regarding China and Japan, rather than wholly in the name of self-interest, then perhaps the last century of East-West relations might have been significantly more conducive than they have been. 

“What ifs?” of history are just that – what if? But if we are all to learn from the past then we need to consider not just what actually happened and its outcome but also what might have possibly happened and what those outcomes might have been? There are always alternatives, there certainly were in Paris in 1919. When we look back, we should consider those and reflect upon them.

More at the China Economic Review.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you interested in more stories by Paul French? Check out this extensive list.  

Related articles

• Arrivals: This week, Remembrance Day
• Lessons From Versailles For Today's Middle East - Analysis
• These Countries Are Still Paying Off Debt from World War I

Looking back at triads, gangs, thugs and Chinese politics - Paul French

+Paul French 

Hong Kong´s protesters have been accusing their political opponents and the police for teaming up with triads, thugs and gangs. Nothing new here, writes author Paul French at China Rhyming, and turns back to Shanghai in 1927.

Paul French:

The apparent appearance of hired thugs, probably from Guangdong organised crime gangs, on the streets of Hong Kong harassing the democracy movement has been blamed on the Mainland Chinese government’s tendency to use such people to stir up trouble and chaos at everything from property development disputes (beating residents slow to leave) to labour strikes (beating up workers) in recent years. As well as a rather handy non-uniformed enforcement body, the thugs provide the government with the opportunity to claim divisions within society and justify the need for state forces to step in to stop the chaos. Some in the foreign media and casual observers have found this tactic hard to understand and difficult to countenance. However, there is a long history of China’s post-1911 governments using triads, gangs and hired thugs to intervene and either stir up, or repress, volatile situations and deal with perceived “enemies” of the state. The roots of the triads and other secret societies mostly reach back anti-Qing organisations, but we don’t need to go quite that far back… 

So let’s go back to 1927….and Shanghai…. 

To cut a long story short (Chinese history stories are always long of course) Chiang Kai-shek, at the end of his Northern Expedition, wished to purge Shanghai of communists, leftists and unions. He needed help in the International Settlement and Frenchtown where his troops could not freely roam (as the PLA cannot in Hong Kong). The Green Gang and Red Gang offered to help. In April 1927 hundreds of left wing activists (some say over a thousand – the sources are confused to say the least – Edgar Snow claimed between 5,000 and 10,000 people were executed, but he had his own agenda as we all know) were killed, mostly by Green and Red Gang members wearing overalls and white armbands saying “worker”. They were hunted down and either shot or beheaded in the street, snipers shot more from rooftops. 

Nobody came out of the events of April 1927 well. The deal to suppress the Left involved all the major players in Shanghai. Du Yuesheng, the Green Gang leader, organised his own militia – the China Mutual Progress Association – while the French Consul General called for a public struggle against the communists with French police guarding the headquarters of Du’s Association and supplying them with guns. Du then used his contacts with Captain Fiori, the Frenchtown Chief of Police, to meet with Sterling Fessenden, the Chairman of the Shanghai Municipal Council (SMC) in the International Settlement. Fessenden, a short, plump American, persuaded the SMC to allow Du’s thugs passage through the International Settlement so they could slaughter the Leftists. Probably like today’s Communist Party politicians in Beijing, Chiang would have liked to think either of the gangs as (misguided) patriots to be worked with to do a good thing or as thugs he temporarily had to work with to achieve the right ends. However, the truth was that the nationalist’s links with the Green Gang went back to the founding of the Republic when Dr Sun’s confidant Chen Qimei had enlisted Green Gang support to seize Shanghai for the nationalist cause. 

The problem in 1927, and one presumably the Party in Beijing will have to deal with now in southern China, is what price the gangs extract for their services? In 1927 political insiders were not that surprised that the first civilian visitor to see Chiang in Shanghai after the putting down of the left was Huang Jinrong, the boss of the Red Gang. A deal had been done – the gangsters would back Chiang with thugs and arms in return for immunity and continued control of Shanghai’s lucrative drugs business.

More at China Rhyming.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.

Are you interested in more stories from Paul French? Do check out this list. 

Related articles

• Sinosphere Blog: Triad Links to Attack on Protesters Raise Some Old Questions
• Did Beijing Back the Hong Kong Triads?
• Hong Kong protest clashes revive city's 'triad' reputation
• The Thugs of Mainland China
• Hong Kong's Gangs Blamed For Protest Violence
• Hong Kong protests: Suspicion after 'triad' attacks - BBC News