Why China’s tea makers rush for a Hong Kong IPO – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

China’s leading bubble tea makers including Mixue Bingcheng and Guming, each with thousands of stores, are rushing for an IPO in Hong Kong. A quick move now to collect capital might define the winners of the future, tells business analyst Ben Cavender to Reuters.

Reuters:

Mixue Group and Guming Holdings, China’s largest and second-largest freshly-made bubble tea chains by store count as of 2023, submitted applications for initial public offerings (IPO) in Hong Kong on Tuesday, Hong Kong Stock Exchange filings showed.

Mixue, which has roughly 36,000 stores, is looking to raise $500 million to $1 billion in its Hong Kong IPO, while Guming, with 9,000, is aiming to raise $300 million to $500 million, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter…

Bubble tea is one of the few bright spots on the consumer front in China, with low-price operators doing particularly well.

According to a China Chain Store & Franchise Association study, the country’s 486,000 bubble tea stores were expecting a 40% rise in yearly sales in 2023, reaching a market size of around 145 billion yuan.

But with low product differentiation, competition has been fierce among players. Another industry giant, ChaBaiDao, also submitted its Hong Kong IPO application just a few months ago.

“I think there is a big rush to IPO right now, as generally speaking these chains have been expanding aggressively but have had to be willing to lose money to do so,” said Ben Cavender, managing director at China Market Research Group.

“Whoever can IPO the fastest and get to a stable operating position may be the winner over the long term.”

More in Reuters.

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Why the equity market is wrongly shunning China – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The equity market is shunning China, and especially Hong Kong, says business analyst Shaun Rein to the Schwab Network. But it is for the wrong reasons, as the economy is still bad, but slowly recovering, he says. Retail sales are going up, employment is improving and FDI is coming back in 2024, so reasons are enough to take those positive signs into account.

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My career as a marketing expert – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Hong Kong-based marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok explains how she became what she is today at the Hong Kong women’s magazine Jessica: A Leading Voice in selling in China—a snippet of her insights: the blueprint for success.

Jessica:

Money as Energy: Investing Beyond the Balance Sheet

Ashley perceives money as more than a mere financial metric or symbol of success; she views it as a form of energy.

“Money is pure energy, money is nothing but energy. The energy is given to me not just to give me comfort… when I have a use case, I know what to do with this money, how am I going to contribute even bigger to the world.”

Her contemplation of money’s role is both philosophical and pragmatic, acknowledging the nuanced relationship women often have with finances. Ashley recognizes that cultural and familial influences deeply affect our financial mindset and behaviors from an early age, particularly for women, and how these can dampen financial aspirations. By conceptualizing money as “pure energy,” Ashley reframes the discourse from accumulation to purposeful distribution, from personal wealth to societal contribution.

Ashley envisions money as a means to empower and create positive change, transcending personal luxury to foster broader societal benefits. Her stance is clear: money is a vehicle for fulfilling potential and serving the community, not just an end goal.

Moreover, Ashley aligns her financial strategies with core values like enjoyment, value creation, and profitability. These principles guide her business choices, ensuring alignment with her identity and long-term vision. This approach marries personal satisfaction with business acumen, redefining financial success as the capacity to innovate, make a difference, and uplift one’s community.

Looking ahead, Ashley emphasizes adaptability and the pivotal role of education:

“The latest statistics said that a Gen Z in China today in their lifetime will likely change 12 careers… what do you need in order to be so agile? Education.”

She underscores lifelong learning as essential for thriving in an ever-evolving career landscape.

The Legacy of Empowerment

Ashley’s narrative weaves a vision where innovation is nurtured, diversity is embraced, and growth is relentless. The space she has created transcends the physical confines of her agency, fostering a mindset of empowerment that resonates with every individual she influences. Her story serves as a blueprint for change, a testament to the transformative power of asking the right questions. It is a journey of profound self-discovery that unfolds when one dares to pursue the answers.

Ashley’s path illustrates how curiosity can ignite passion and conviction. By challenging conventions and forging new templates for women in business, her leadership celebrates collaboration, mentorship, and talent cultivation. Ashley reframes limiting mindsets around gender and money, championing authenticity and education as drivers of success. With an unrelenting focus on growth and innovation, she leverages her expertise to guide brands into the complex Chinese marketplace.

Ashley’s courage to take the entrepreneurial leap, despite risks, ignites a call to action for others to fearlessly pursue their purpose and potential. Her inspirational journey empowers women to become trailblazers in their own right, turning curiosity into conviction.

More in Jessica.

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Singapore: the financial center of South-East Asia – Jim Rogers

 

Jim Rogers

Singapore is going to be the financial center of South-East Asia, driven by China investments, says international investor Jim Rogers at the Wall Street Journal.

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2023-10-03

What are the Germans thinking about China? – Mark Schaub

 

Mark Schaub

The German government has become much more assertive about the country’s wheeling and dealing with China. Veteran China lawyer Mark Schaub visited over the past few weeks Berlin and Munich and felt the pulse of the German business communities toward China, he reports in his China Chit-chat. “Politicians in Germany have limited ability to influence or pressure German business. Consumers can be upset … but will become upset about something else 5 minutes later,” he writes.

Mark Schaub:

Geo-political Situation is Much Worse – a common theme was that media coverage was much more negative about China than in the past. Most also felt that the reporting was not particularly well informed nor nuanced. Hot topics include Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Many felt that China was judged much more harshly and subject to greater scrutiny than the United States. One friend who runs a China group told us that he was holding closed sessions on these sensitive topics because his organization places great importance on transparency and openness. This was somewhat dampened by his closing the door as he discussed this, but his heart is in the right place.

But Geo-Politics Likely to have Limited Real Effect – most felt that consumers and government may be more negatively inclined towards China but that this was unlikely to translate to much in the way of real action. Politicians in Germany have limited ability to influence or pressure German business. Consumers can be upset … but will become upset about something else 5 minutes later.

De-Risk not De-Couple – one German consultant reacted negatively to the term de-coupling finding it both exceedingly negative but also unrealistic. He has German medium sized businesses looking to de-risk the Chinese business but not quit China. It is more likely that the next factory will be in a site outside of China. However, probably not Vietnam as that is seen to be too integrated in China anyway. There was widely held agreement that really excluding China from the global supply chain was wishful thinking or unthinking populism.

COVID is a real Management Problem – most of the Mittelstand companies really felt that they are lacking insight into their local operations. In the past there was at least a bit of pantomime that the local management was following HQ rules and directions. Few feel the compulsion to even engage in such a charade now. One GM commented that what made her feel most comforted was that the local management in her entity were likely too stupid to be stealing. Normally this would be a red flag but I have met the management in question and I think she may be on to something there. In any event, COVID was really the biggest practical problem.

There is Still Interest in China – one consultant had conducted a detailed survey of 30 Mittelstand companies and found there was still strong interest. The major issue holding them back was concerns re IP rights. Although IP rights are a legitimate concern the level of understanding seemed very immature. Have you protected your IP legally? Do you have a strategy in place to protect the IP rights? If your IP rights are really so great and of great interest to the Chinese market you can bet someone will have bought it and reverse engineered the buggery out of it. Hiding will not work. Personally, I think the much greater challenges are: how do you launch a business in China if you cannot visit China? How do you compete with Chinese competition? Deal with an uneven playing field? These are all complexities that few mentioned.

The Chinese are Coming – it was striking how many Chinese companies were based around Munich – car companies, battery companies – it is curious why they all plumped for the most expensive part of Germany (for people, offices and factories). One German tech investor mused that he thinks to combat China’s new lead in new energy vehicles Europe of the 2030s will likely adopt the Chinese playbook from the 1990s for the auto industry – require Chinese companies to enter into JVs and forced tech transfers against market access.

More in the China Chit-chat.

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China lockdowns hurt multinational firms – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Global companies have been warning of the major effects of China’s lockdown on their operations, curtailing Shanghai for more than six weeks. But they have very few alternatives apart from sitting out the ordeal, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender to CNN. The corporate exodus from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine did not help. For sure, consumption in China is down.

CNN:

The combination of both events has created a staggering one-two punch for multinational corporations, such as Estée Lauder (EL), which said last week that the “two significant headwinds” forced it to slash its outlook for the year.

The crisis is a stark reminder of China’s outsized importance to global companies.

“Like it or not, at this point if you’re a multinational, China is probably your first or second largest consumer market,” said Ben Cavender, managing director of the consultancy China Market Research Group…

“Frankly speaking, consumers right now are not worried about buying lipstick or coffee,” said Cavender. “They’re really much more focused on getting [necessities].”

In Shanghai, for instance, the lockdown initially led to a massive scramble for food and widespread complaints about difficulties receiving deliveries.

Now, even as access improves, many people concentrate on what’s known as “group buying,” allowing users who live in the same community to place bulk orders together for groceries and other essentials.

Even those who aren’t stuck at home may be affected. Consumers who live in cities without restrictions might also hesitate to go out and hit the mall, for fear of “what has happened in Shanghai,” where people remain in lockdown indefinitely, said Cavender.

“It’s been a very big negative drag on consumption.”…

Cavender said that the recent challenges in Ukraine and China had highlighted “a period of greater risk” more broadly for international firms.

“I do think there are a lot more challenges now to being a multinational than there have been in the past,” he added.

More at CNN.

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What is behind Ant's US$200 billion IPO? - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

Alibaba's Ant Group will list for a US$200 billion IPO at both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets, the largest in 2020. Political analyst Shirley Ze Yu dives into the background of this financial giant.

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Social media might be better off leaving Hong Kong - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein`

TikTok has already decided to leave Hong Kong and other Western social media like Facebook and Google are trying to figure out what to do after China introduced its national security law to Hong Kong and they might have to cooperate with local police. Business analyst Shaun Rein suggests they would better off leaving Hong Kong altogether, in the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

New implementation regulations for the law unveiled on Monday say it applies “whether or not the identification record or decryption key” central to a particular national security case is located in Hong Kong.

Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group, said that given how politicised Hong Kong had become, Facebook risked being criticised at home if it did not publicly say it would resist police requests.

“I think a lot of companies like Facebook have a decision to make. Is it better to upset the Hong Kong police and the government, or is it better to upset their home market in the US? So maybe it is better for them to leave Hong Kong completely,” he said.

Rein said there was a “real risk” that the legal representatives of these companies could go to jail or be fined if they did not follow the law, leaving tech giants stuck in a “very difficult and dangerous situation”

More in the South China Morning Post.

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Starting a new Hainan airline is a good idea - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

While birds are taking over many international airports, China's second largest airline company China Eastern has launched a new airliner with a focus on its touristic Hainan. Business analyst Shaun Rein argues this is actually a good idea, even though much of the airline industry is still on its back after the coronavirus crisis, he tells at the BBC. 

BBC:

Shaun Rein, founder of the China Market Research Group, said it was actually a good time to start a new airline focused on Hainan.
"Even before Covid, 2020 was the year of domestic Chinese tourism as China wants to focus more on seeing their own country, especially hot spots like Hainan, Yunnan and emerging ones like Gansu."
He added that the US-China trade war has seen "emerging patriotism with Chinese citizens wanting to show their children how great their country is and to teach them more about its heritage".
Meanwhile, ongoing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have discouraged many Chinese travellers from visiting the former British colony.
"Hainan itself as a destination is hot right now, especially as the government supports duty-free shopping there. Hainan also has no quarantine or other travel restrictions."

More at the BBC.

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Why the Hong Kong uprising is no democratic movement - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein argues why the Hong Kong uprising is not the democratic movement they claim to be, in an interview with state-owned CGTN.

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Is China killing the Hong Kong goose with the golden eggs? - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

Former US President Clinton's assistant trade representative Harry Broadman fears China might be killing its Hong Kong goose with the golden eggs. He also sees not providing data on the leadership views on economic growth is foolish, he tells at Bloomberg.

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Why Hong Kong and mainland China need each other - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

Anti-China protests in Hong Kong are likely spilling over into 2020, but both Hong Kong and mainland China need to realize they still need each other, despite all the changes over the past decades, argues financial analyst Sara Hsu at China Rising.

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How China's rise forced Hong Kong's decline - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Pulitzer-price winning journalist Ian Johnson describes the decline of Hong Kong, in all possible ways - not only economically, as China rose, for the NY Review of Books. "Hong Kong failed to install visionary leaders who might have helped Hong Kong retain its place among the handful of truly key global cities," he writes.

Ian Johnson:

This decline is about more than economics. Hong Kong once had a cachet that few cities could match: the home of Bruce Lee, Wong Kar-wai, and Eileen Chang—a bucket-list destination perched on a fault line of global politics. Played right, it could have been a perfect tool for China’s desire to project a better image of itself around the world. And Beijing likely believes that its policies are allowing Hong Kong to still fulfill this purpose.

In reality, the city has lost its global allure. Tourism is booming but only because of Chinese tourists, who now account for nearly 80 percent of arrivals. These aren’t savvy Chinese travelers—that rising class has long since written off Hong Kong as a backwater—but people for whom a visit is their first “foreign” experience. As for the rest of the world, despite a global tourism boom, the number of non-Chinese visitors this decade has stagnated or declined.

One feels this just by walking around Hong Kong. It is still a thrilling setting—the islands, the jutting mountains, the sparkling ocean, the skyscrapers. And its airport—which the British built before they left to show confidence in Hong Kong’s future, and China foolishly criticized at the time as part of a nefarious British plot to bankrupt the colony before leaving—is still world-class. But much of Hong Kong now feels about as exciting as a Chinese provincial capital.

The urban core remains filled with crumbling concrete housing blocks built in the 1960s and 1970s. Many streets are dirty and chock-a-block with low-margin shops hawking fake iPhone cases and cheap SIM cards, while anodyne malls sell global consumer brands that can now be found anywhere in mainland China. Instead of belonging to the twenty-first century, it feels trapped in the 1980s.

Again, one can argue that if Hong Kong feels left behind, it is because China’s rise made wealth and prosperity flow elsewhere in the region. But this is another indictment of China’s stewardship: it failed to install visionary leaders who might have helped Hong Kong retain its place among the handful of truly key global cities. Instead, the city has been run by a series of Beijing-approved mediocrities, all of whom have either resigned in disgrace or been engulfed in crises. All the city’s chief executives were fatally hampered by having to defer on all important decisions to Beijing, making them more like colonial governors than autonomous rulers of a dynamic metropolis.

More at the NY Review of Books.

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Beijing's worst nightmare: a collapse of the property market - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

What is Beijing's worst nightmare? The trade war? The troubles in Hong Kong? No, says political economist Shirley Ze Yu. China's real nightmare is a collapse of the property market, she writes in the South China Morning Post. "China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids."

Shirley Ze Yu:

“The only force that can defeat China is from within. No exterior force can.” On October 2 this year, the Communist Party’s leading journal of political theory, Qiushi, published in full a 2018 speech by President Xi Jinping, highlighting in stark language China’s coming challenges as the People’s Republic enters its 71st year. Indeed, in 2020, China’s primary economic risk is most likely to come not from the trade war, but from its inflated property market. 

“Black swans” and “grey rhinos” dominated China’s financial lexicon this year. Few in the population know what they are but most know what they mean. They mean fear. 

China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids. One injection was the massive stimulus introduced in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Another injection was from the six consecutive interest rate cuts in the 12 months to November 2015. 

Awash in liquidity, Chinese stock markets took off too, but by late 2015, the bubble had burst and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled about 50 per cent from its 2015 peak. Real estate, however, partied on. At the annual Caixin Summit earlier this month, China’s top economic policymaker Liu Shijin said that the targeted 6 per cent growth in gross domestic product is still “within reach” this year but for next year, worryingly, “drastic measures would be needed”.  

Experts have drawn comparisons between China’s overheated property market and Japan’s housing bubble that burst in 1991, plunging the economy into the “lost decades”. Like Japan, China has risen to become a major trading nation thriving on a massive trade surplus. Both are today among the world’s top creditor nations with a culture of high savings rates and heavy reliance on bank lending, creating a highly leveraged economic growth model. 

Former United States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke concluded that Japan’s post-bubble deflation was due to ill-timed and ill-measured monetary-policy responses from its central bank. China, however, has attributed this to the Plaza Accord, a 1985 currency pact that set off Japan’s currency demise. 

With Japan’s fate in mind, China is expected to resist any attempt by the US to introduce a Plaza Accord 2.0 in the interim trade deal under negotiation. Any clause on exchange rate stability will therefore remain symbolic in both language and execution.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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The future of Hong Kong: continued decline - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

Hong Kong is economically on a downhill slope and its current problems do not help the city to stop that, says Jim Rogers, veteran investor, at his weblog. "China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore."

Jim Rogers:

The only reason Hong Kong became Hong Kong was because of 1949, in Mao Zi time. Now, you don't need Hong Kong anymore. Shanghai was the largest financial center between New York and London before the before the war, Second World War. 

China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore. It's going to continue to decline. When the Renminbi, the Chinese currency, is convertible, yes, I would expect the Hong Kong dollar to disappear.

More at his weblog.

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Why China can not send in the troops to Hong Kong - Howard French

Howard French

China can send in heavy police or army to put down the devastating protests in Hong Kong. But that would devastate its "One Country, Two Systems" approach, and nobody - including Taiwan - would trust China again, writes veteran journalist Howard French in The Guardian.

Howard French:

Beijing’s choices in Hong Kong will not grow easier. The ultimate option, of course, is to mount a police or military intervention from the mainland in order to put down the protests. But at what cost? Hong Kong would lose forever its status as a global, cosmopolitan city, a goose that lays golden eggs for China. Since Deng Xiaoping introduced capitalism to China, Hong Kong has served as a critical business and investment portal for the country: a place where foreign companies feel it is safer for them to be based because of the independent judicial system and a banking structure that allows the free conversion of currencies and unlimited international transfers. As China has grown vastly richer it has become less dependent on Hong Kong for such purposes, but lots of investment into China still passes through the city. 

A takeover of Hong Kong by force would also destroy Beijing’s proposition – tattered as it may already be – that Taiwan should accept unification with China on the basis of one country, two systems. Recent events in Hong Kong have already strongly lifted the election prospects for the governing party in Taiwan, whose leader Tsai Ing-wen favours continued defiance of Beijing. 

Most unpredictable, though, is how this will play in China itself. A catastrophic crackdown in Hong Kong could go very badly for Xi, a leader who has tried to project an aura of resolve and near infallibility. Today Beijing trumpets that its 1.4 billion people stand united in their opposition to Hong Kong’s democracy movement. But that is a claim only sustainable in an environment of suffocating media control in China. 

If mass arrests or tanks were used to crush a protest movement aimed at securing democratic concessions, members of China’s own large and growing middle class would begin to see this not just as a defeat for Hong Kong, but as a loss for their own society as well.

More in the Guardian.

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How Hong Kong fell into China's economic orbit - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

Mainland China has been watching the recent events in Hong Kong with astonishment, to say the least. LSE scholar, fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and former Chinese national television (CCTV) news anchor Shirley Ze Yu explains in the South China Morning Post how the former British colony has fallen into China's economic orbit and how - in the long run - it will join the mainland.

Shirley Ze Yu:

The transitory promise to Hong Kong of “one country, two systems” is good for 50 years only, a blink of an eye in historical terms. To take a fatalistic view, all the liberal Hong Kong protesters are fighting for were handed over when Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997. 

Hong Kong is under China’s full control. It is virtually impossible to conceive of an alternative future for the city, come 2047, or even 2097, other than a collective future. In 100 years, mainland China and Hong Kong will both have fundamentally transformed themselves. Given that China has transformed at a speed and on a scale beyond the world’s imagination, there is no telling where it will be in a century’s time. 

But one thing is certain: Hong Kong’s destiny lies with China.In 100 years, mainland China and Hong Kong will both have fundamentally transformed themselves. Given that China has transformed at a speed and on a scale beyond the world’s imagination, there is no telling where it will be in a century’s time. 

Much more in the South China Morning Post.

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Violence at Hong Kong protests needs to be condemned - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein asks Hong Kong protest leader Joshua Wong to condemn the violence at the protest. That went obvious too far for Joshua Wong, we noted at a forum of The Economist.

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Is Xi's rule under threat? Not for now - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

China not only has been doing very well over the past decades, but any systematic opposition is lacking, even not triggered off by the Hong Kong protests. Although it does not mean president Xi Jinping is having no problems, says political analyst Ian Johnson to the Sydney Morning Herald.

The Sydney Morning Herald:

To be sure, Hong Kong's protests aren't exactly an existential threat to Xi and his cohort. The 70th anniversary of the people's republic means China's single-party government has lasted a year longer than the Soviet Union - and it shows no sign of cracking yet. 

The rise of "a true opposition movement would take a systemic crisis - say, a real economic meltdown or a climate-induced catastrophe - that doesn't yet seem likely," Beijing-based journalist Ian Johnson noted. "And so, superficially at least, the Communist Party seems to go from strength to strength, relying on China's capable civil service to make sure the high-speed trains run on time, the highways hum with new cars and the aircraft carriers get built."

But there's a tension burrowed inside this seeming stability, Johnson concluded: "It is precisely this return to prosperity that has given people the opportunity to contemplate a century-old question: what exactly holds their country together other than brute force?"

More at the Sydney Morning Herald.

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Starbucks picks Beijing over Hong Kong - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Starbucks found itself in hot water as the protesters turned against Maxim, the major franchise holder of the coffee outlet in Hong Kong. When it has to choose between Hong Kong and Beijing, Starbucks will pick China's central government, says business analyst Shaun Rein according to Fortune.

Fortune:

For Starbucks, the politicization of their Hong Kong stores comes at an inopportune moment, as they plan further expansion into China in the face of new, homegrown competition. 

The approximately 170 Starbucks outlets in Hong Kong pale in comparison to mainland China, where Starbucks has already opened 4,000 stores in over 160 cities, with plans to reach 6,000 outlets by 2022. And unlike in Hong Kong, Starbucks fully owns its outlets in China. 

Starbucks is increasingly staking its financial future on growth in the Chinese market. 

Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz said in 2017 that as the Chinese market expands, the company would become less dependent on U.S. business. “China will become a much more important component of the financial results of Starbucks,” Schultz said. 

This means that as the protests in Hong Kong forge on, Starbucks’ main concern may be to appease authorities in the Chinese government. Shaun Rein, the managing director of China Market Research, recently told the Financial Times that Starbucks "can’t do anything to alienate Beijing.”

More in Fortune. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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