China´s nukes: a threat within 10 years - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

China´s nuclear weapons are getting better and more powerful, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News. He cites a US congressional report, warning for the Chinese power to threaten US forces within 10 years.

Wendell Minnick:

The report, issued Nov. 19, by the US China Economic and Security Review Commission, states China will pose a threat to all US military forces, bases and assets in the Western Pacific within the next 10 years. 

China will also be able to attack US national security satellites in a variety of ways — kinetic, laser, electronic jamming and seizing. According to the report, China’s capabilities will hold at risk all US national security satellites in every orbital regime in the next five- to 10 years. “In space, China in 2014 continued to pursue a broad counter-space program to challenge U.S. information superiority in a conflict and disrupt or destroy U.S. satellites if necessary.” 

Beijing also calculates its space warfare capabilities will enhance its strategic deterrent as well as allow China to coerce the US and others “into not interfering with China militarily.” The report said China’s growing nuclear warfare capabilities are ominous. 

Over the next five years, China’s nuclear force will rapidly expand and modernize, providing China with an extensive range of military and foreign policy options and “potentially weakening U.S. extended deterrence, particularly with respect to Japan.’ Over the next three- to five years, China’s nuclear program will also become more lethal and survivable with the fielding of additional road-mobile nuclear missiles; five nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, each of which can carry 12 sea-launched intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBM); and ICBMs armed with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV).

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For sale: China´s new cruise missile - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Some might be focused on China´s growth as a military power, just along comes its ability to sell weaponry on the international market. Defense analyst Wendell Minnick notes in Defense News a new cruise missile in its arsenal.

Wendell Minnick:

The new CM-708UNA submarine-launched cruise missile made its debut at Airshow China in Zhuhai, in the southern province of Guangdong near Hong Kong, on Tuesday. 

The 128-kilometer range missile is the product of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), which also makes unmanned aerial vehicles and land-attack/anti-ship cruise missiles. A CASIC official at the display said the missile is in production. 

The CM-708UNA is launched by torpedo tube and is applicable for various submarines for targeting medium-to-large ships and inshore targets. The missile uses a strap-down inertial navigation system plus satellite navigation, a high-precision radar seeker and digital control. The missile is powered by a turbo engine and solid rocket booster.

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China´s alternative for Lockheed´s F-35 - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

 Many countries struggle with the replacement of their F-16´s, and have a hard time to pay for Lockheed´s F-35 or JSF. China´s showed its J-31 fighter, meant to offer a cheaper equivalent, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

The J-31 export revelation occurred in the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) Exhibition Hall after personnel unwrapped its 1:2 model of the aircraft Nov. 10 during a preshow tour of this week’s Airshow China in Zhuhai. The placard for the model states: “FC-31 4th Generation Multi-Purpose Medium Fighter.” 

Chinese fighters are designated with a “J” for fighter and “FC” for export,” and this is the first time the J-31 has been referred to as the FC-31. 

Though overcast, a J-31 performed a demonstration flight during the preshow tour, as did the Russian Su-35 multirole fighter. China and Russia are expected to sign a deal for export of the Su-35 sometime later this month.

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China to show off stealthy J-31 fighter - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

At the Zhuhai airshow next week China is showing its stealthy fighter J-31, writes defense expert Wendell Minnick in Defense News. "This will be the first public demonstration of the twin-engine J-31."

Wendell Minnick:

A Chinese airshow official has confirmed that China will unveil its stealthy J-31 fighter aircraft at China’s biggest commercial and defense airshow next week in Zhuhai, in the southern province of Guangdong near Hong Kong. 

Known officially as the 10th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, the event will be held from Nov. 11-14. About 700 aviation companies and 120 aircraft will participate. 

Built by Shenyang Aircraft, this will be the first public demonstration of the twin-engine J-31. The fighter is similar in configuration to the single-engine Lockheed F-35 stealth fighter. Chinese-language military blogs posted photographs of the J-31 practicing demonstration flights at Zhuhai last week. 

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will be exhibiting the JH-7A and J-10 fighters, Z-8KA helicopter, and the upgraded H-6M medium-range bomber capable of carrying cruise missiles. The Hongdu L-15 Falcon fighter trainer is not yet listed nor is there a press conference. Hongdu has made a special effort at other air shows in the Middle East and Asia to promote the aircraft.

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A model of the J-31 fighter in 2012

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More Taiwanese military selling secrets to China - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Defense analyst Wendell Minnick identifies one of the driving forces in rising Chinese espionage on Taiwan: a growing number of Taiwanese military see not future, and try to make some money by selling secrets to China, he writes in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

As relations improve between Beijing and Taipei, military morale still continues to fall as fewer Taiwan military officers see a future in an ever-shrinking armed forces. Many are beginning to cash in on their intimate knowledge of military secrets, including classified information on US military equipment. 

Over the past several years, Taiwan military officers have sold China information on the E-2K Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and PAC-2 anti-ballistic missile systems, Hawk air defense missile system, and the Raytheon Palm IR-500 radiometric infrared camera. 

Taiwan defense sources said that on the Taiwan side, China has collected all the data needed to compromise the Po Sheng C4I upgrade program and the Anyu-4 air defense network upgrade program, Shuan-Ji Plan (electronic warfare technology project), and the Wan Chien (Ten Thousand Swords) joint standoff weapon. 

A common anecdote used by the Western media suggests China uses a “grains of sand” or “mosaic” approach to collecting intelligence. That is, China collects intelligence from a broad effort by low-level, often amateur, sources to form an overall picture. However, Chinese efforts in Taiwan indicate otherwise.

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China: learning how to shoot down US stealth fighters - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

The  F-22 Raptor fighter based at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam is one of the largest threats for China´s security, its military find. So, the country it not only developing radar systems to see it, but want to learn to take it out of the air, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick at Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

The DWL002 (radar system) is the product of inspiration from two other passive radars, said Vasiliy Kashin, a China military specialist at the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. In 2004, the US blocked the sale of the Czech VERA-E passive radars to China, but the “Chinese had an opportunity to closely inspect the systems.” When China could not buy the VERA-E, Kashin said, they bought Ukrainian Kolchuga passive surveillance radars. 

“As I understand, DWL002 is a development of the YLC20 radar, which, in turn, was mainly based on the VERA-E,” Kashin said. The Chinese YLC20 is a passive direction-finding and locating radar with a 600-kilometer range. 

Americans may have forgotten China’s intimacy with US stealth aircraft and the driving force to obtain anti-stealth technology. During the May 1999 bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, a US B-2 stealth bomber dropped five bombs on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in May. In March, an F-117 stealth fighter was shot down during the war. Unconfirmed media reports suggest China was given part of the fuselage to study. In 2011, satellite imagery available on Google Earth revealed a full-scale mock-up of the then-retired F-117 at the Luoyang Optoelectro Technology Development Center (LOEC) in Henan Province. A former US military attaché based in Beijing during the 1990s said the mock-up is not a surprise. LOEC also has a mock-up of the B-2, F-35 and F-22, he said. Espionage has played an important part in China’s attempt to learn more about US stealth aircraft. In June, Su Bin, a Chinese citizen and the head of China-based Lode-Technology, was detained by Canadian authorities due to US government allegations that he provided China with classified data on the F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters.

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China challenges US surveillance practices - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

When a Chinese J-11 fighter challenged a US Navy P-8 Poseidon on Aug. 19 near Hainan Island, it triggered off a debate on the way the US performs its surveillance strategy, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

US analysts indicate that what China really objects to is America’s place in Asia. Put in these terms, China’s demand that the US cease close-in surveillance operations poses a stark choice: Pursue a cordial and more equal relationship with China vs. maintaining America’s dominant position in Asia. What China is telegraphing to the United States is that it cannot have it both ways. This gets to the heart of American primacy and its role in the world. 

“Chinese leaders are seeking to expand their influence over their periphery by building up, establishing new terms of reference for what is allowed and normal, tranquilizing neighbors into accepting growing Chinese hegemony, and supplanting US power,” said Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security... 

US spy boats and aircraft have long been a source of intrigue and crisis in American military history and many have resulted in embarrassment or the deaths of US military personnel. North Korea’s capture of the USS Pueblo in 1968, the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty in 1967, the Soviet shootdown of a CIA U-2 spy plane flown by Gary Powers in 1960, and the 2001 Hainan Island incident involving a US Navy EP-3 aircraft and a Chinese J-8 fighter, all serve as notice of the dangers of snooping too close.

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The Boeing hacking charges - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

The FBI accused three Chinese citizens, including Su Bin (Stephen Su), owner of Lode-Technology, last month of hacking into US military projects. Defense analyst Wendell Minnick had a look at the FBI-document detailing the accusations for Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

Details of other aircraft and US companies are sketchy. Su is alleged to have obtained F-35 test plans and “blueprints” that would “allow us [China] to catch up rapidly with US levels ... [and] stand easily on the giant’s shoulders,” according to Su’s emails.

A former US government counterintelligence analyst on China said the case is a “close parallel” to other cases involving Chinese businessmen “taking government information to ensure long-term success of [their] business.” He also said that Canada and Hong Kong were still popular technical transfer shipment points for Chinese industrial and military espionage.

According to the complaint, one of Su’s emails states that his team “secured the authority to control the website of the ... missile developed jointly by India and Russia and that they would ‘await the opportunity to conduct internal penetration.’ ”

Su also allegedly focused on military technology in Taiwan and files held by various Chinese “democracy” groups and the “Tibetan Independence Movement.” On Taiwan, the intelligence collected was focused on military maneuvers, military construction, warfare operation plans, strategic targets and espionage activities. According to one of the several emails, “we still have control on American companies like [identifying US companies] and etc. and the focus is mainly on those American enterprises which belong to the top 50 arms companies in the world.”

One attachment listed 32 US military projects and another listed 80 engineers and program personnel working on a “military development project.” Another lists the names and email addresses for four people at a “European company that develops military navigation, guidance and control systems.”

Cyber intrusions into Boeing and other companies were sophisticated. According to one of Su’s emails, they had control of an unidentified defense company’s file transfer protocol server. Jump servers, also known as “hop points,” were set up in France, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and the US. According to emails, these were set up to avoid “diplomatic and legal” difficulties for China.

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China builds airstrip in South China Sea - Wendell Minnick

China is building up its military capacity in the South China Sea by constructing an airstrip at the Fiery Cross Reef, reports defense analyst Wendell Minnick based on regional media reports, in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

China appears to be constructing an airstrip and sea port on Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea, according to regional media reports, in a move that looks like the next step in its efforts to claim the entirety of a water area roughly the size of India.

The expansion is part of numerous reef reclamation efforts being made by China, said Guy Stitt, president of AMI International Naval Analysts & Advisors. “China continues its slow fortification of the claims within its 9-Dash Line,” which outlines China’s purported “indisputable sovereignty” of the South China Sea.

China has active expansion programs on Gaven Reef and Cuarteron Reef, and the placement of a port and airstrip on Fiery Cross or any of the others would “be used to counter a US presence in the Philippines,” said Carl Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

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