Taiwan invests US$15 billion in indigenous defense project - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Taiwan is going to invest close to US$15 billion into indigenous shipbuilding projects in an effort to become more independent from changing US policies on defense, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

The Taiwanese Navy announced 12 new shipbuilding and force modernization programs covering a 23-year period at roughly $14.7 billion on Monday. This indigenous build effort is part of an overall plan to wean Taiwan off expensive and politically troublesome US defense acquisitions — which often consist of refurbished older platforms — and develop a robust defense industry on the island. 

The projected timeline runs from 2017 to 2040, and programs include a Taiwan Aegis destroyer and frigate, submarine, high-speed minelayer, landing platform dock (LPD), 11 additional stealthy Tuo Jiang-class missile corvette catamarans, and multi-purpose transport. Other programs include more AAV7s, a type of assault amphibious vehicle, for the Taiwanese Marine Corps, underwater swimmer delivery vehicles for special forces, and assorted weapons for special forces. 

Despite the impressive list that includes a wide variety of vessels and systems, orchestrated by the Navy’s Naval Shipbuilding Development Center, the list is considered by some Taiwan defense analysts to be a “Christmas wish list.” As of now, only three of the programs have been officially authorized and funded for construction.

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China builds amphibious Taiwan scenario - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

China´s military have been building out amphibious capability for their Taiwan invasion scenario, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News, quoting an annual report by the Pentagon for the US Congress.

Wendell Minnick:

China’s military is expanding its capabilities for an amphibious assault on the self-ruled island of Taiwan. This, according to the newly released “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” which is issued by the Pentagon each year as mandated by the US Congress. 

China now has two amphibious mechanized infantry divisions, one amphibious armor brigade, 11 army aviation brigades and regiments, three Airborne divisions, and two Marine brigades. For the navy, new ships include 30 tank landing ships/amphibious transport docks, 22 medium landing ships, and China has signed significant purchase contracts with Ukraine for assault hovercraft. 

China’s investments in its amphibious ship force signal China’s intent to develop an expeditionary and over-the-horizon amphibious assault capability, said the report. “Since 2005, China has built three large Yuzhao-class (Type 071) amphibious transport docks with a fourth soon to enter service, providing considerably greater and more flexible capability for ‘far seas’ operations than the older landing ships.” The Yuzhao can carry up to four of the new Yuyi-class, air-cushion medium landing craft and four or more helicopters, as well as armored vehicles and marines for long-distance deployments. 

Additional Yuzhao construction is expected to continue, as is a follow-on amphibious assault ship that is not only larger, but also incorporates a full flight deck for helicopters. Two Yuting II-class tank landing ships (LST) are currently being built to replace older LST units that are reaching the end of their service lives. 

The Pentagon report states that Chinese writings indicate there are different operational concepts for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, but the most prominent of these is the Joint Island Landing Campaign, which envisions a complex operation relying on coordinated, interlocking campaigns for logistics, air, naval support and electronic warfare. “The objective would be to break through or circumvent shore defenses, establish and build a beachhead, transport personnel and materiel to designated landing sites in the north or south of Taiwan’s western coastline, and launch attacks to seize and to occupy key targets or the entire island.”

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US arrest suspect for carbon fiber theft - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

US judicial authorities have arrested the Chinese national Fuyi “Frank” Sun for trying to steal carbon fiber, used for military and aerospace applications, defense analyst Wendell Minnick writes in Defense News. Sun was caught by an undercover unit of Home Land Security (HSI).

Wendell Minnick:

Sun allegedly instructed HSI undercover agents to use the term “banana” to refer to carbon fiber in their communications. On April 11, Sun traveled from China to New York to purchase the carbon fiber and told HSI agents that the fiber was for the Chinese military. Sun also told agents that he had worked in the Chinese missile program as an employee of the China National Space Administration in Shanghai and had a close relationship with the military, according to the charge sheet. 

“Sun paid the undercover agents $23,000 in cash for the carbon fiber. He also paid an additional $2,000 to undercover agents as compensation for the risk he believed they were taking to illegally export the carbon fiber to China without a license,” the government document says. 

The HSI undercover operation included the creation of a front company with an online “showroom” of various products for sale. The “UC company” was not identified, but government documents indicate the front is in New York City. 

Sun allegedly suggested several third countries to make the transaction, including Australia, Belgium and South Korea. Sun described a prior transaction in which he had acquired carbon fiber from a Korean supplier and in order to defeat Korean export controls, Sun and the Korean company had arranged to intentionally mislabel the carbon fiber as “acrylic fiber,” which was difficult to visually distinguish from carbon fiber. Sun instructed the undercover agents to “destroy the barcodes on every bundle … they won’t be able to trace where the merchandise … is really coming from,” the documents say.

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China´s defense firms become better, but stay secretive - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Getting a Chinese defense company at an exhibition would be awkward, since they were not prepared to give any information, not even to customers writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick at Defense News. At the latest Singapore Airshow they improved, but only slightly.

Wendell Minnick:

There was a time not long ago when Chinese defense companies exhibiting at international defense shows would provide no information about their products to journalists, or for that matter, even customers. 

A model of a new fighter aircraft or an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on display would come with no brochure and no placard indicating even the name. It was a curious experience to ask about a model of a new weapon system only to get shrugs from Chinese representatives who appeared just as baffled by its appearance at the airshow as the journalist. Journalists would take a picture and move on, assuming that boxes of brochures in the back room of the booth would be reshipped back to China unopened. 

It was a public relations disaster for Chinese defense companies to spend enormous amounts of money for booths/chalets and allow for no dialogue about their products. It was a mystery most likely explained by China’s history of opaque behavior and the fear of losing face. 

This week’s Singapore Airshow was a little different. The China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corp. (CATIC) displayed the supersonic Hongdu-built L-15 Falcon attack/fighter/trainer (AFT) aircraft armed with new weapon systems not seen outfitted on the Falcon before. It even included a brochure, if you asked nicely, but even then badgering often came into play.

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Shrinking Taiwan military moonlight as China spies - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Taiwanese military increasingly spy for China, as their future in the military looks dim, as relations between Beijing and Tapei improve, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News. Share their information with China is one way to cash in on their knowledge.

Wendell Minnick:

Over the past several years, Taiwan military officers have sold China information on the E-2K Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and PAC-2 anti-ballistic missile systems, Hawk air defense missile system, and the Raytheon Palm IR-500 radiometric infrared camera. Taiwan defense sources said that on the Taiwan side, China has collected all the data needed to compromise the Po Sheng C4I upgrade program and the Anyu-4 air defense network upgrade program, Shuan-Ji Plan (electronic warfare technology project), and the Wan Chien (Ten Thousand Swords) joint standoff weapon. 

A common anecdote used by the Western media suggests China uses a “grains of sand” or “mosaic” approach to collecting intelligence. That is, China collects intelligence from a broad effort by low-level, often amateur, sources to form an overall picture. However, Chinese efforts in Taiwan indicate otherwise.

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Xi showed he is in charge - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

If the big military parade in Beijing proved one thing, it is Xi Jinping is firmly in charge, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News. "Instead of party members, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi."

Wendell Minnick:

China demonstrated more than just its growing military capability during a celebratory parade this week commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan. 

The leadership review stand left no guesswork about who is in charge of China’s military, with President Xi Jinping not sharing the stand with anyone within the party leadership, except former Presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Instead of party members, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi. 

“It was all eyes on Xi,” said Mark Stokes, a former senior country director for the Pentagon’s China desk in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense. “Definitely put an end to the idea of collective leadership. Xi was firmly in charge, and only Xi.” Stokes is now executive director of the Project 2049 Institute. 

Xi’s parade speech included the announcement that force levels would be reduced by 300,000 personnel from the current 2.3 million. Xi further stated that China is a nation interested in peace and committed to peaceful development. 

“We Chinese love peace," Xi said. "No matter how much stronger it may become, China will never seek hegemony or expansion.”

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What the US Navy can learn from the Beijing parade - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

Apart from showing grandeur, the huge Beijing parade showcased also a large amount of new weaponry. Defense analyst Wendell Minnick saw some new features that should certainly get the attention of the US Navy, he writes in Defense News, 20 years after the Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis.

Wendell Minnick:

China showcased its growing capability to deny the US Navy access to the maritime domain of both the East China Sea and South China Sea during a celebratory parade Thursday commemorating the 70th anniversary of its victory over imperialist Japan. 

Parade officials commented that 80 percent of the weapons on display had never been exhibited to the public before, and all the equipment was Chinese-made and operational. Though this is a fair statement, three fighter aircraft that took part in the parade are actually pirated copies of foreign fighter aircraft, including the J-11B (Sukhoi Su-27), carrier-borne J-15 (Su-33) Flying Shark, and the J-10 (Israeli Lavi). 

The parade showcased for the first time a variety of ballistic missiles under the command of the Second Artillery Corps. Mark Stokes, a China ballistic missile specialist at the Project 2049 Institute, said that leading each parade formation were corps leader grade officers – chief of staff, chief engineer or deputy commander. 

"It appears that each of the six missile bases were represented with a new missile system," he said.

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Japan´s war game with China gets dangerous - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

China has been upsetting its neighbors by building an airstrip at the Fiery Cross Reef, but now Japan has been making war efforts really dangerous, and the end is not yet in sight, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News. From a yet-to-be released Japanese white paper.

Wendell Minnick:

In what may turn out to be the first step in a dangerous game of chicken, Japan's upcoming annual defense white paper will accuse China of belligerency in its dealings with neighbors as it becomes clear that China is laying the foundations of a military base on Fiery Cross Reef, one of seven artificial islands China has created in the disputed Spratly Islands. 

In the outline of the white paper, to be released in late July, on top of the usual statements citing North Korea's nuclear and missile development as issues of concern, the paper will directly call China's reclamation work on the Spratlys, "high handed."  

In the last 18 months, China has added about 800 hectares to seven reefs in the area, including an airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef, along with the makings of a military radar base. All of this is seen as a significant escalation in a dispute over the islands, part of a huge swath of territory in the South China Sea (SCS) over which China claims undisputed sovereignty.

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China´s ambitious military plans - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

China released a few days ago an ambitious white paper on its military strategy, weeks after the Pentagon released its annual report on China. Defense analyst Wendell Minnick gives in Defense News this take on the plans.

Wendell Minnick:

Neither report appears to take blame for the rising tensions in the South China and East China seas. The Chinese report, "China's Military Strategy," indicates "some of its offshore neighbors" have taken "provocative actions" and reinforced their military presence on China's reefs and islands "illegally." 

Without mentioning the US, it says, "some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China."... 

The Chinese report states that the maritime environment is now a critical security domain. "The traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned," it says. China will develop a "modern maritime military force structure commensurate with its national security and development interests, safeguard its national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, protect the security of strategic SLOCs [sea lines of communication] and overseas interests, and participate in international maritime cooperation, so as to provide strategic support for building itself into a maritime power." 

Taiwan appears doomed in both the Pentagon and Chinese report. 

The Chinese report states that " 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and their activities are still the biggest threat to the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations … the root cause of instability has not yet been removed."

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The complex maritime relations between China and the US - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

The edgy relations between China and the US at sea have been tested over the past few months, and at last week´s International Maritime Defence Exhibition (IMDEX) defense analyst Wendell Minnick heard how crisis management tools between the countries have performed, he writes in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick:

On the first day of the exhibition, US Navy Adm. Michelle Howard, vice chief of naval operations, told a media roundtable that the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) agreed upon in 2014 between China and the US was successfully implemented and tested in real time just before IMDEX began when CUES was used between the USS Fort Worth (LSC-3) littoral combat ship and a Chinese warship in the South China Sea. 

Both the Fort Worth and a Chinese Type 54A Jiangkai II frigate, 569 Yulin, were on display at Changi Naval Base for IMDEX as part of a 20-warship exhibition. 

"We had previously agreed with the Chinese, if we met at sea, to use CUES. 

So Fort Worth came across one of our counterparts" and the encounters were handled in a professional manner, Howard said. 

Navy chiefs at the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in China approved the use of CUES on a voluntary basis in April 2014, said Carl Thayer, a Southeast Asia security specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy. 

"CUES is an important first step at norm setting and institutionalizing agreed procedures when military ships unexpectedly encounter each other at sea," Thayer said. "So far there have been at least three bilateral naval exercises practicing CUES: China-Indonesia, Vietnam and the US, and Japan and the Philippines."

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US-China clash in South China Sea "unlikely" - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

China is flexing it maritime muscles in the South China Sea, and military analysts different on how dangerous the situation can get. Defense analyst Wendell Minnick thinks a clash between China and the US is unlikely, but cannot be excluded, writes Asia One.

Asia One:

A military stand-off and any exchange of fire would be the worst-case scenario, they say. 

Defence News' Asia bureau chief Wendell Minnick said while it is very unlikely, the possibility of "a Chinese commander firing an anti-ship missile and having things escalate from there" cannot be ruled out. "The nationalistic fervour is so great right now that you're not sure how far that might push a commander." 

The reaction of the Chinese navy also remains a huge source of uncertainty as it has not been observed in combat before, Mr Minnick noted, adding that the Sino-US crisis management mechanism meant to avoid unwanted clashes can also be improved... China is likely to use "swarming tactics" rather than a direct military confrontation, Mr Minnick said. This means sending Chinese fishing boats and coast guard vessels to harass the US ships while the Chinese navy watches at a distance, Beijing's usual tactic. He said: "But the US military can't do this forever. It is likely to demonstrate its physical presence, then slack off before bringing it back during a crisis."

More at Asia One.

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S-400 extends China´s air defense - Wendell Minnick

Wendell Minnick

A recent purchase of the S-400 air defense system by China from Russia has extended its air defense, writes defense analyst Wendell Minnick in Defense News, although it does not allow it to dominate the region.

Wendell Minnick:

A deal between Russia and China for procurement of the new S-400 air defense system will serve as a force multiplier for Beijing in its quest to dominate the skies along its borders, experts said. 

The 400-kilometer-range system will, for the first time, allow China to strike any aerial target on the island of Taiwan, in addition to reaching air targets as far as New Delhi, Calcutta, Hanoi and Seoul. 

The Yellow Sea and China's new air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea will also be protected. The system will permit China, if need be, to strike any air target within North Korea. 

The S-400 will also allow China to extend, but not dominate, the air defense space closer to the disputed Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, said Vasiliy Kashin, a China defense specialist at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Moscow. China refers to the islands as the Diaoyu, and tensions between Beijing and Japan have been increasing for several years as China continues to claim the islands.

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