China will be a remote issue during US elections - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

US President Obama made some obligatory references to China in his "state of the union", but Beijing-based economic analyst Arthur Kroeber predicts in The Newyorker China will be a non-issue in the upcoming 2012 elections.

Evan Osnos in The Newyorker:

After the [Obama] speech, I called Arthur Kroeber, an American who is managing director of GK Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economic research firm, for his take. He had some other numerology in mind: “China is a big issue in U.S. politics in odd-numbered years, because there is no election. In 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, we had the peak of the currency debates. But in every case, the closer you got to an actual election, China evaporated as an issue.” 

In the opening weeks of 2012, Americans have, perhaps, a more deeply visceral reaction to the China-jobs issues than in previous cycles, but Kroeber has a prediction: “Obama made a few gestures on stronger trade enforcement, which signals to your base that you’re on the right side, and then you move on and forget about it once the real campaign is started. And I’ll bet you anything you want that once the Republicans actually have a nominee, it will be a remote issue.”... 

“Both of these large countries are struggling with different but fundamentally similar types of enormous income-equality problems and economic transitions,” Kroeber said. “In China, it’s about how to move away from the low-end export-driven economy, and in the U.S., it’s the post-industrial question: How do we drive job growth now that we can’t employ thousands of people in steel plants? If you’re a glass-half-full person, you would view those similarities as a positive thing. Fundamentally your problems are pretty similar.”

More in The Newyorker.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

More from Arthur Kroeber on China's economy in Storify.

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