While banning Tiktok might be fair game, it’s not smart domestically in the US – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analyst Victor Shih, author of  Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation and director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy tells at UC San Diego Today. “From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game,” he says.

Victor Shih:

What’s the relationship between TikTok and the Chinese Communist Party?

TikTok is a private company, and it’s now registered offshore from China — but, of course, historically most of its operation has been in China. As of five or six years ago, maybe even a bit longer, the Chinese government has required large, private companies to have branches of the Chinese Communist Party within the company structure.

For the Chinese equivalent of TikTok, Douyin, there’s a party committee in the company. And the parent company, ByteDance, which is located in China, also has a Chinese Communist Party branch. Most of the people in the party committee would not be full-time government officials — they’re just workers or executives who had already belonged to the party. That’s actually a common thing to happen. You will soon be recruited into the party at a university or in the workplace, and a lot of people do it just to advance their careers.

There are certain requirements for joining the party, and the No. 1 requirement is that you have to obey the party no matter what. I think that’s where a lot of U.S. lawmakers and people in the government really have an issue.

More recently, within the past four years, the party has demanded top tech companies to give part of their shares to entities of the Chinese government. So China has sovereign wealth funds. Through that mechanism, the government becomes a minority shareholder of these tech companies, so then it can send members to the management boards of these tech companies, and these board members are full-time Chinese government officials.

How has this relationship between ByteDance and the party played into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s larger goals?

Xi Jinping recognizes the power of social media and the internet in general — not really as something to control people’s minds with, but certainly something to use to sway people’s opinions. He has ordered internet companies in China to work for the party on behalf of the party. It’s very well known that the Chinese counterpart of TikTok is ordered by the Chinese government to convey propaganda to users within China all the time, even if TikTok claims that it doesn’t do that for audiences outside of China.

Xi has also said that he wants users around the world, not just in China, to use Chinese technology. And of course, TikTok has been the most successful case of this, certainly on the software side: it’s used by over a billion users worldwide.

Is there reason for the U.S. to be legitimately concerned about how TikTok might make users’ personal data available to the Chinese government?

I don’t buy the argument that we should be alarmed how the Chinese government can get all this data on users from TikTok — because all the other internet platforms active in the U.S. already sell user data to data brokers, and China can obtain it that way. To be clear, I’m sure TikTok is feeding some data to the Chinese government; I’m just saying that it’s probably not that much worse than what they could do already using all the other sources of data.

The other worry is that TikTok is so powerful, and that it’s used by so many people that the people behind the app can bias the politics within the United States. I think that TikTok does have the potential to do that. But then, compare that with other people who are influencing opinion on social media. You have to ask yourself, “Who has done more damage to the quality of American democracy: Elon Musk or TikTok?”

Is the ban a wise move? How could it affect relations between the two countries?

It’s really difficult to assess because former government officials, sometimes at 21st Century China Center events, will say, “If only you knew what we knew, you would definitely support the ban.” But we don’t know what they know.

One consideration is that the Chinese government has banned pretty much all of our social media and search platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Google.

From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game. But of course, TikTok has great currency in the United States: people make a living off of TikTok, so a ban is going to affect them, and as a result, for domestic political reasons it may not be the smartest thing to do.

More at UC San Diego Today.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

How is the EU-China relationship moving on – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein (left)

Business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, dives into the future of EU-China relations, as Trump is getting settle for his second term as US president. He discusses the currently hostile relationship between some of the EU leaders and how the European continent can move ahead with a better relationship with China, more independent from the United States, he tells Volker Friedrich.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts to manage your China risk? Do check out this list.

How will Trump negotiate with China – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein at WION

‘Trump will use a shock and awe strategy to control China, similar to his tactics with Denmark, Greenland, Canada, Panama, and Mexico,’ says Shaun Rein, Founder and Managing Director, China Market Research Group (CMR) in an interview at WION. Tariffs, TikTok, and many other issues are hanging over the negotiations. But in the end, both countries are better off working together, says Shaun Rein.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How US semiconductor sanctions helped China’s AI startups – Winston Ma

 

Winston Ma

One unintended effect of the US sanctions against China’s semiconductor industry is that its AI startups have benefited greatly from them, says Winston Ma, author of The Digital War: How China’s Tech Power Shapes the Future of AI, Blockchain, and Cyberspace in the Bastille Post. 

The Bastille Post:

A prime example is the Chinese-developed DeepSeek AI chatbot, whose developer claims to have spent only a fraction of the development costs compared to companies like OpenAI. In some tests, it closely matched OpenAI’s ChatGPT model and outperformed Meta’s Llama AI model.

“You could have said that thanks to the sanction of the chips, lots of Chinese AI startups focused on developing AI applications in a more efficient way, using much fewer GPU chips than the U.S. counterparts,” said Winston Ma, author of “The Digital War.”

One area where Chinese tech companies have focused their efforts is humanoid robotics.

“[If you went to] the recent CES Las Vegas Exhibition, you will find Chinese manufacturers dominate the exhibition of smart robotics. It’s interesting that ‘Made in China’ was started when China was at the low end of the global supply chain. But after two, three decades, the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem, especially relating to electronics, has become the strongest in the world,” said Ma.

More in the Bastille Post.

Winston Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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Why Chinese prefer Trump over Harris – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

According to Shanghai-based analyst Shaun Rein, most Chinese prefer Trump over Harris because they expect Trump to be more transactional, while they feared Harrid would lead a more ideological struggle, he tells CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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China: neither collapsing nor booming – Howard French

 

Howard French

Former Shanghai-based foreign correspondent Howard French recently returned to Shanghai for the first time after corona and takes stock of its current state, by talking to Chinese and foreign residents in the city. In Foreign Policy he reports about these findings. French: “All I can say with certainty is that we are all in for a turbulent, costly, and possibly dangerous ride.”

Howard French:

In the final of these conversations, I asked a much older Chinese scholar about the mounting tech war between the two countries, in which the United States has been seeking to limit China’s access to the most sophisticated microprocessor manufacturing equipment, advanced graphics chips from companies such as Nvidia, and artificial intelligence technologies.

The scholar said the West badly misunderstands China, underestimating its preoccupation with its standing in the world. This will only push Beijing to strive harder to build these technologies on its own—and ultimately prevail. He clarified that he was not predicting that China would win across the board. The point he left me with was that any perceived antagonism from the West will feed Beijing’s preexistent desire to lead in every field that it thinks matters.

This, he said, will lead China to double down on industrial policies and state-driven investments. Many of these will prove misguided or inefficient in the long run. But in a country of China’s size, with enormous resources not only in national wealth but in human talent, many will also succeed, giving its Western competitors all they can handle over the next few decades. All I can say with certainty is that we are all in for a turbulent, costly, and possibly dangerous ride.

More in Foreign Policy.

Howard French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Global economy depends on the US demand, not on China – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

Whether the world is heading for a recession does not depend on the state of China’s economy, but on demand in de US, says China economist Arthur Kroeber at the CNBC. In the eyes of Xi Jinping, China is not doing as bad as some economists say it does, he adds.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Assessing the Impact of US-China Rivalry on Ukraine and Taiwan – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaier Kuo

China veteran Kaiser Kuo of the Sinica Podcast moderates a discussion on how the US-China tension have an profound impact on the war in the Ukraine and the position of Taiwan at the Ukrainian platform for Contemporary China.

The speakers: Da Wei, Director of Center for International Security and Strategy; Professor at School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University; Dmytro Burtsev, Junior Fellow at A. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Emilian Kavalski, Professor at Centre for International Studies and Development, Jagiellonian University in Krakow; Yuan I, Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our sperakers’ reqyest form.

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China’s state of the economy – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein discusses the current state of China’s economy, how consumer confidence is slowly recovering, and why the fear of geopolitical tensions stops them from spending more in the economy. And why investors should be careful in investing right now in the second economy of the world.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why the US keeps up economic pressure on China – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The USA is dealing with huge problems and cannot afford to challenge China directly, but decided to stabilize the relations between both countries, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC-TV18. But the USA is for sure keeping economic pressure going, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list. 

Analyzing the China-US relations – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analyst Victor Shih breaks down the relations between China, the US, and the rest of the world in a discussion from the Chevron Auditorium in the I-House on “China-US Futures: Pathways to Peaceful Coexistence”. Key takeaways: many problems perceived by American politicians with China are not as bad as they try to let us believe.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why the anti-TikTok law in the US does not make sense – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaiser Kuo

US lawmakers have started debate on a law that would ban the successful TikTok app.  Political analyst Kaiser Kuo dismisses the effort as misguided at best, he writes in the ChinaFile. “In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.”

Kaiser Kuo:

The bill that got through Congress on Wednesday to effectively ban TikTok—let’s not pretend either that this bill isn’t specifically about TikTok, or that a forced divestiture isn’t tantamount to a ban—is the latest example of a classic pattern of American behavior: In a panicked attempt to preserve the American way of life, we undermine that very way of life. This time, we seem to be falling over one another to sacrifice our openness, a cornerstone of American strength, out of exaggerated fear that a social media app owned by a Chinese company could be our undoing. As usual, this whole episode says much more about us than it does about China. We have a terrible track record of making bad decisions while in the throes of a moral panic, from Prohibition to the Patriot Act. A closer analogy can be found in the Trump administration’s moves to restrict Chinese STEM students and researchers from coming and working in the U.S., and the subsequent China Initiative. Out of a fear that Chinese industrial espionage would confer an advantage on Beijing, we somehow decided that we were better off if all that prodigious Chinese STEM talent went back to China or just stayed there.

If we accept that we ought to take preemptive action against threats to national security, even if they are only latent and potential, any actions should address those potential threats in good faith. In this case, the threats are data harvested by social media falling into the hands of the Chinese, and social media being used by China to advance a hostile agenda. The bill now making its way to the Senate does not address either of these threats. Instead, it takes aim only at one relatively minor potential vector. Not only is the preponderance of valuable data on TikTok out in the open—the content itself, not the metadata—and would be there just the same irrespective of who owned the company, but Beijing can easily either buy valuable data from brokers, vacuum it up from other social media properties, or just acquire it the old fashioned way, through hacking.

That the motive behind this bill is not, in fact, data security is driven home by the refusal of legislators to accept ByteDance’s own proposal, Project Texas, which was devised in consultation with the Austin-based tech company Oracle and The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and would see data localized and housed entirely on servers controlled by Oracle with oversight entirely by U.S. citizens vetted and approved by Oracle. Project Texas would make TikTok the most locked-down, secure social media property in the U.S., if not in the world. The notion that even under that plan, Beijing would still decide to squeeze ByteDance just to acquire data it could obtain far more easily, and in ways that wouldn’t seriously imperil the only Chinese social media company to have enjoyed any global success, is just risible.

And influence? If TikTok is a potent vector for Chinese propagandists, one has to ask: How’s that working out for you, Beijing? Across its years of popularity, American attitudes toward China have plummeted, not improved. If we’re looking for causation, it is clear enough that, if anything, it’s our low national opinion of China driving D.C.’s animus toward TikTok. In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.

More viewpoints at the ChinaFile.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why Chinese enter the US through the Mexican border – Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

A large number of the illegal immigrants entering the US from Mexico are Chinese, and not only poor Chinese, says China scholar Ian Johnson in DW. They mostly rely on dubious information on TikTok and have no clue what kind of adventure they get into, he adds.

DW:

The phenomenon of Chinese people entering the United States via the southern border has come to be described by the term “Zouxian,” which can roughly be translated as “take the risk” — and the term’s broad dissemination on social media platforms has led many young Chinese to do just that.

“They rely on social media more in China for getting their information,” said Ian Johnson, a China expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations. “In the Western countries, you would say: ‘What does the mainstream media say about it?’ But, in China, there is no way to fact- check.” Johnson said it concerned him that so many of those young people have no idea what they are getting themselves into.

Johnson said the situation would not just hit the very poor.

“The economic slowdown is affecting broader ranges of the population, including the lower middle class,” Johnson said. He added that increased political persecution under President Xi Jinping has also fueled a desire to leave China behind.

More in DW.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Can Saudi-Arabia follow China and US as a leader in AI? – Winston Ma

 

Winston Ma

Winston Ma, an investor, attorney, author, and adjunct professor in the global digital economy, discusses at a Miami conference who can follow as leaders in AI for Arab News. He believes also countries like Saudi Arabia can follow those two leaders, although it does mean a lot of targeted investments.

Winston Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China and the US need no war on AI, but cooperation – Alvin Wang Graylin

 

Alvin Wang Graylin (right)

Behind all the geopolitical shuffles between China and the US, the war on AI and the metaverse is raging, says AI expert Alvin Wang Graylin in an interview with Cyrus Janssen. And that is a wrong signal for the rest of the world, as both forces should not try to contain the other, for national security reasons or whatever, but work together, he argues.

Alvin Wang Graylin is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your meeting or conference, get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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You can order Alvin’s upcoming book here: Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse,

You can read the full interview here: 12:28 – Introduction to Alvin Wang-Graylin

The current state of US-China relations – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih (left) at the discussion

China expert Victor Shih, Director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses the current state of US-China relations with Bill Gertz of the Washington Post, covering questions like, “Is China an existential threat or a competitor?” and “Is China trying to replace the US as hegemon?” at PNYX.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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