China watcher Kaiser Kuo sees now the China hawks in the US are losing ground, after Trump realized China was not the pushover he hoped for, in a wide-ranging discussion at the Nonzero podcast with Robert Wright.
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For years, the growth of AI was built on scaling up its GPUs, but innovation expert Alvin Wang Graylin, author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, sees now a move to more collaboration. Chip maker Nvidia is not the only winner anymore, as competition is growing and AI models can develop through more experience and need less capacity to grow, as China’s Deepseek proved earlier this year, he says at the Big Bang Future Lab.
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Alvin Wang Graylin, author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, explains why there is no AI race any country can win. He discusses at the Thinkers Forum why the AI bubble everybody is talking about is not the right one.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo, host of The Sinica Podcast, looks back at how the debate on China has developed in the West over the past forty to fifty years, and here it ended now, in a debate with host Eric Olander of Conversation Changers. The discussion on what China wants says more about the West than about China, he argues.
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Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein explains why China has the upper hand in the current trade war with the US. For anything the US does not want to send to China, China has an alternative to hit back, he says at the Thinkers Forum.
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Technically, the trade talks between China and the US, and even meetings between Xi and Trump, are on the agenda, but the US has quietly curtailed US exports to China in September, says business analyst Arthur Kroeber in the South China Morning Post. The ramifications of the US rule change became vividly apparent on September 30, when the Dutch government seized control of the chip firm Nexperia.
South China Morning Post:
Until recently, US exporters had to obtain a government licence to do business with any of the entities included on the lists. But in late September, the bureau broadened its rules: exporters now face restrictions not only when dealing with entities on the lists, but also with any company at least 50 per cent owned by entities on the lists.
US officials “depict this as a technical move” that closes an obvious loophole, but in reality “its impact is far from technical”, said Arthur Kroeber, partner and head of research at research firm Gavekal, in a research note published last week.
In practice, the new rules effectively expand the number of sanctioned companies, “probably by thousands or tens of thousands”, Kroeber said. Many of the companies affected by the rule change are Chinese.
What’s more, the new rules create an onerous compliance burden for businesses, as the responsibility for figuring out whether a given company is majority-owned by entities on the blacklists lies with US exporters. That means businesses must now conduct forensic due diligence on the ownership structure of many customers, Kroeber said.
The ramifications of the US rule change became vividly apparent on September 30, when the Dutch government seized control of the chip firm Nexperia.
Nexperia is a local company that in 2019 became majority owned by Wingtech, a Chinese chip firm that was put on the US entity list in 2021.
As Nexperia would be vulnerable to US sanctions under the new rules, the Dutch government’s move to take over the company and oust its Chinese CEO was necessary to preserve the firm’s unfettered access to the US market, Kroeber said.
More at the South China Morning Post.
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China is going to be the likely winner in the trade tensions the second-largest economy in the world has with the US, Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, author of r, explains at ScanX. “While the situation remains fluid, Rein’s analysis suggests that China may be better positioned to weather the current trade tensions.”
ScanX:
Shaun Rein, Managing Director of China Market Research Group, argues that China holds a stronger position in the current trade conflict with the US. He cites US vulnerability during the Christmas shopping season, potential pressure on Trump from his support base, and China’s reduced dependence on the US market. China has diversified its suppliers, limited US reliance to semiconductors and ethane, sold half its US dollar holdings, and is promoting RMB use in international trade. These moves are contributing to de-dollarization trends and impacting gold prices and cryptocurrency interest. Tensions have escalated with China threatening export controls on rare earth materials.
In the ongoing saga of US-China trade relations, a market research expert suggests that China may have the advantage. Shaun Rein, Managing Director of the China Market Research Group, presents a compelling case for China’s stronger position in the current trade standoff with the United States….
Rein criticizes the US for allegedly breaking earlier agreements reached between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In response, China has threatened to impose export controls on rare earth materials, further escalating tensions.
While the situation remains fluid, Rein’s analysis suggests that China may be better positioned to weather the current trade tensions. However, the long-term implications for both nations and the global economy remain to be seen. As always, investors and policymakers should closely monitor developments in this critical relationship.
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U.S. President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff hike on Chinese goods, and Harry Broadman, former US Assistant Trade Representative and Chief of Staff of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, tries to make sense out of both countries’ moves at Al Jazeera.
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While the US has been busy floating the media with an upcoming deal on TikTok, China has been rather quiet, notes adjunct professor at NYU School of Law Winston Ma, author of The Digital War: How China’s Tech Power Shapes the Future of AI, Blockchain and Cyberspace on CNBC.
CNBC:
The lack of details in the Chinese side’s statement “suggests that China is taking time to negotiate when U.S. is keen to have deals,” said Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law, pointing out that Beijing “said nothing about [an] APEC meeting.”
And then there’s China’s vague commitments to a tech licensing deal to keep TikTok alive in the U.S. — what Beijing calls a “solution that complies with China’s laws and regulations.”
That contrasts with the constant flow of details from the U.S., now covering everything from investors to board seats. A Politico report, citing an unnamed senior White House official, even claimed that the Trump administration is “100% confident” of a deal forcing Beijing-based ByteDance to spin off TikTok’s U.S. operations.
Trump, however, may have preempted China’s coolness, saying in a Truth Social post Friday that he “appreciate[s] the TikTok approval” after his call with Xi, even as Beijing kept its language vague.
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Alvin Wang Graylin, author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, worked in both the US and China on AI and compares the strategy of both countries. While China focuses on a multipolar approach, with mainly economic targets, the US does the opposite and looks at military strategies, he tells Veronica Hylak at Hey AI.
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The number one mistake the West has about China is that China wants to replace the US as the leading global force, says China veteran Kaiser Kuo in an extensive interview in the Smart Cookies Episode. But that is only one of many misunderstandings.
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Leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®
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Both China and the USA claim to want to negotiate a trade deal, but, according to economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, since there is no common agenda, only common mistrust, it appears very unlikely that these talks will progress. He says this in an interview at Dwarkesh Clips.
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China now understands the US better than America understands China, argues economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in an interview at the Dwarkesh Clips. Both on a personal and a governmental level, America has stopped investing in good relations with China, he says.
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U.S. President Donald Trump may be enthusiastic about the trade deal between China and the U.S., which was closed in London this week. However, business analyst Shaun Rein points out that the deal is lacking crucial details and might not work, as he notes in The Economic Times. “So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump,” he adds.
Shaun Rein:
Trump is saying the deal has been signed and he has been talking about that the Chinese are going to send rare earths and magnets in advance to whatever the United States needs because what you have seen in the last month is the lack of rare earths that were exported to the United States has really crippled the American economy.
You can have companies, the big automakers like Ford and GM are rumoured to say, we need to relocate our manufacturing to China, so we can get access to rare earths despite the heavy tariffs that they would then incur by going into the United States. But here is the thing, China’s media has been a lot more circumspect with the details of this so-called trade agreement.
China has said the rumour is that they will give maybe export licenses to rare earths on a six-month trial basis to American companies. So, basically Trump is exaggerating the win in his mind and China is being a lot more honest probably saying well we do not have all the details ironed out, we want to come to an agreement but quite frankly China has the upper hand in the trade war with the United States right now…
The United States needs a deal. Frankly, China controls about 30-35% of global manufacturing. So, America might have the money, they might have the capital, but they need to buy the products from China. At the end of the day, China makes not just rare earths, about 90% of refined rare earths, but they also make most of the ibuprofen, most of the Tylenol.
Most of the antibiotics in the world comes from China. So, at the end of the day, that is real leverage. So, for instance in 2017, 18% of Chinese exports went to the US, that number is down to 14%. China on the other hand has shifted and exports to Asean, has gone up to 16%.
So, basically, it is a game of chicken right now. China’s economy is hurting, do not get me wg. There are about 15 million people who are involved in the export sector. You have seen that the CPI index has dropped about 0.1%. So, we are dealing with the D-word, deflation.
So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump and Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick because at the end of the day, the Americans need to buy from China. They cannot buy antibiotics from any other country in the world except for a little bit from India.
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Delegations from China and the US are discussing the risks and opportunities in trade for both countries in London. However, according to former US trade negotiator Harry Broadman, stability in trade relations is crucial for any outcomes that may follow those negotiations, as he notes at Al Jazeera. Unfortunately, processes for those stable relations are lacking, he adds.
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The Trump administration is pretty clueless on China, and that is only one of many issues when both countries are going to deal with each other, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, in an interview with the Australian broadcaster ABC. Both can inflict huge damage on each other, but neither is in a position to win a full-blown trade war, he adds.
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