Xi Jinping cannot change his China model, even when it is needed - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

China's president Xi Jinping has painted himself into a corner, summarizes the famous economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, the economic dilemma China finds itself in, according to NPR. "He cannot back down from his China Model."

NPR:

But Xi has dug in his heels, China’s economy continues to outpace much of the world, and China’s leader has continued to promote the state-heavy China model. “Xi has kind of painted himself into a corner,” says Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know. “He’s said ‘We have this China model, it’s doing its own thing, China needs to become this great power.’ He can’t back down from that.” 

Kroeber says Xi’s style of leadership is a departure from former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, whose credo for dealing with the outside world was “Hide your strength and bide your time.” 

“The genius of Deng Xiaoping’s ‘hide and bide’ strategy is that it gives you a lot of freedom of movement,” says Kroeber. “You have not committed yourself to anything specific that it would be difficult to back down from.” 

Kroeber says the problem with Xi’s assertive style is that when he’s challenged, as he is now by Trump, he has to stand his ground, and that can become costly.

More at NPR. Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Xi´s China dream hinders realistic policies - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

Politics under president Xi Jinping has certainly become more exciting than under his predecessors, says political scientist Victor Shih in the Policy Forum. But Xi´s push for his China dream getting realistic approaches to achieve that goal have become, and might curtail his ambitions.

Victor Shih:

Xi’s call for the realisation of the China Dream may be creating this echo chamber of a policy environment. In order to realise this ambition, China has to maintain relatively high growth of 6 percent or above for the foreseeable future. The state media reported Xi’s remarks that “the realising of the China Dream of the great revitalisation of the Chinese people means that the state must be strong and rich, the nation must be prosperous, and the people must live well”. 

Because Xi has put such a heavy emphasis on this objective, China’s technocrats cannot challenge it outright, forcing them instead to accelerate growth even as the private sector acts to slow it down. As debt mounts in the economy, indebted firms are less able to invest, which slows growth. Knowing that most firms and the government are indebted and are unable to spend much, even firms unencumbered with debt will not want to invest as heavily. This process has driven real private sector investment growth down to nearly zero. 

However, such a market-driven outcome is unacceptable to China’s technocrats, who are fearful of disappointing Xi. Instead of challenging the growth objective, as advised by the IMF, they are pulling out all stops to accelerate state-backed investment in order to replace falling private sector investment. Local governments are taking on increasing levels of debt in order to maintain growth. This will create even more unserviceable debt down the track because investment by state-owned enterprises and local governments will continue to generate smaller cash flows and fewer economic benefits than the initial investment. 

The combination of Xi’s rising power and his strong preference for growth will continue to force the Chinese economy to greater leveraging, making the county’s position more precarious, and ironically, imperilling the very dream it seeks to achieve.

More at the Policy Forum.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

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China Dream symbol splits an artisan family - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

President Xi Jinping´s "China Dream" comes along with a slick propaganda campaign. But the center piece of the campaign, a clay figurine of a chubby peasant girl in a red smock, has split the artisan Tianjin family who made the image, discovered journalist Ian Johnson for the New York Times.

 Ian Johnson:

But behind this slick campaign is one family’s tale of persecution, division and conflicting views on government control of art. The story offers a darker counterpoint to the party’s upbeat message, underscoring longstanding efforts to control art and bend it to political aims.

 

“Our family wants to have nothing to do with politics,” said Zhang Yu, 37, a sculptor and a member of the sixth generation of the figurines’ creators, who objects to his family name being associated with the campaign. “We don’t do those sorts of things.” 

The peasant girl and other statuettes used in the government campaign are products of a studio founded nearly 200 years ago by a craftsman named Zhang Mingshan. Working with the thick yellow clay found in the wetlands that surround this port city east of Beijing, he fashioned figurines of local notables, lovable street vendors and opera characters, as well as historical figures and philosophers. Mr. Zhang soon became a national celebrity, earning the nickname Clay Man Zhang. 

His descendants carried on the work, building one of the most well-known folk art traditions in China. Their miniature sculptures resemble the porcelain Hummel figurines collected in the West, and for many Chinese, they evoke a sentimental vision of their country in much the way of Norman Rockwell’s depictions of America. 

The dowager empress Cixi received Clay Man Zhang statues on her 60th and 70th birthdays, in 1895 and 1905. The Nationalist Party leader Chiang Kai-shek owned pieces. Mao Zedong kept one modeled on a famous literary beauty in his study.

But the family is divided. Much more at the New York Times.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.

Are you interested in more stories by Ian Johnson? Do check out this list.

Ian Johnson discusses the Chinese search for spiritual values.

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