Why Xi Jinping turned against Miao Hua – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China’s President Xi  Jinping turned against his erstwhile handpicked ally Admiral Miao Hua, a member of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). Political analyst Victor Shih explains at CNN this change in Xi’s long-standing struggle against corruption.

CNN:

As the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China heats up, the PLA Navy has also seen a drastic increase in the procurement of warships and other weapons, providing ample opportunities for corruption, said Victor Shih, a political science professor at the University of San Diego.

But there could be another potential reason behind Miao’s downfall, Shih said, for “being too obvious in his attempt to foster a faction in the military.”

Xi has repeatedly warned against the forming of factions in both the party and the military. “Of course, the only person who is allowed to do that is Xi himself,” Shih added.

Miao is seen by some analysts as having recommended multiple associates in the Navy for promotions to key positions, including Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin and Defense Minister Dong Jun.

The announcement of Miao’s investigation came a day after the Financial Times reported that Dong had been placed under investigation for corruption, citing current and former US officials. The Defense Ministry dismissed the report as “sheer fabrication,” and days later, Dong made a public appearance at a security forum…

Miao’s downfall comes less than a year after former defense minister Li Shangfu was removed from the CMC.

The powerful body had six members – all deemed as Xi’s loyalists – serving under the top leader when he began his unprecedented third term two years ago. If Miao is also removed, it would leave two vacant seats.

Shih, the expert on Chinese elite politics, said many dictators, from former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin to Mao, have eventually turned against their own proteges.

“Once all of their real competitors are gone, a dictator can never think to themselves: ‘Oh well, all the threats are gone. I can just relax.’ Because they always think that new threats could emerge, including from people who once were very close to them. This happens over and over again,” he said.

More at CNN.

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China’s financial measures: More about stabilization, not stimulus – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

China has started to push capital into its sluggish economy, but economists have different opinions on what the government wants to achieve. According to Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, its financial measures are more about stabilizing its economy, not about a full-blown stimulus as it did in the past, he says at the ChinaFile.

Arthur Kroeber:

China’s economic support measures are better described as stabilization than stimulus. Unlike in previous full-bore stimulus programs, for instance in 2008 and 2015, the aim today is not to engineer a boom but simply to halt the deterioration in economic conditions evident in the past few months, and stabilize growth at around the target of 5 percent.

China’s long-term economic strategy has not changed. Xi Jinping’s intent, as outlined in the Third Plenum decision this past July, is to shift capital from real estate and infrastructure into technology-intensive manufacturing. The aspiration is that the productivity gains from high-tech industries will deliver the long-run growth that China needs, offsetting the impact of a declining population and other negative factors. Another key goal of this strategy is to ensure that China becomes self-sufficient in core technologies, enabling it to withstand the pressure of U.S. containment policies. The leadership is fully prepared to tolerate a period of relatively sluggish growth as the price of making this structural shift.

But the stabilization policies of the last month show the limits of this tolerance. They also reflect a judgment that the contraction of the property sector, now into its fourth year, has gone far enough, and that policy should shift from restrictive to modestly supportive. The final policy move, expected in early November—issuance of long-term central government debt to swap for provincial debt—is a long-overdue recognition that the financial position of heavily indebted provinces is unsustainable, and that direct fiscal support from Beijing is needed.

Over the next year or so, the economic package is likely to succeed in its limited aims: reversing the decline in housing sales, and providing local governments with relief from interest payments so they can pay back wages to their employees and overdue bills to the companies that supply them with goods and services. This should be enough to stabilize GDP growth at somewhere close to the 5 percent target. The benefits to the rest of the world, however, will be modest. Neither consumer spending nor commodity demand will enjoy a dramatic pickup. And Beijing’s steady commitment to its investment-first growth strategy means that other countries will still face the challenge of intense competition from low-priced Chinese imports.

More opinions at the ChinaFile.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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China’s stimulus: good only for the short run – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s massive financial stimulus is good for the short term, but the economy needs more structural change, away from real estate, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC. While it is good Xi Jinping moves away from politics and ideology and turns to the economy, more is needed to restore long-term confidence in the economy by the consumers, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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2024-09-27

Why it is important to avoid historical amnesia – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

Independent Australia reviews Ian Johnson‘s latest book Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future and supports his effort to avoid pressure from the government to forget the past. “Johnson gives us access to some of the recent events that have already been obliterated from Communist China’s official history, from the murderous disasters of Mao’s crackdowns on critical thinking to the cult rise of Xi Jinping.”

Independent Australia:

What China’s Mao took from Stalin’s Russia was what Pulitzer-prize-winning writer Ian Johnson, in his must-read new book, Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and Their Battle for the Future, calls the imposition of cultural amnesia. Nasty and divisive as a so-called history war might be here, in China, it’s deadly.

Johnson gives us access to some of the recent events that have already been obliterated from Communist China’s official history, from the murderous disasters of Mao’s crackdowns on critical thinking to the cult rise of Xi Jinping.

In the display halls devoted to Xi’s rule in Beijing’s National Museum of China, along with videos of him delivering speeches and copies of his many books, preserved in a glass case, there’s even a receipt from a modest restaurant meal eaten by the great leader. Not even the Elvis museum has that kind of object-reverence.

It was in that museum that Xi announced his Chinese Dream policy, effectively rewriting the Communist Party history to ensure no criticism of what actually happened (including the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre) would trouble his plans to lead China back to (mythic) glory. Make China Great Again.

To read about Xi Jinping’s attitude towards history is like reading Blainey on steroids, pumped up and enormously dangerous.

Two years before he took over as Party President in 2012, Xi gave a keynote at a national meeting of historians — who were, in fact, functionaries tasked with (re)writing the official history to make sure it conformed to Xi’s idea of patriotism.

Johnson writes:

‘He laid out a five-point program that called for publicising the party’s history, including its “great victories and brilliant achievements”, and the “historical inevitability” of its rise to power. Especially young people, Xi said, had to be made to appreciate the party’s grand traditions and the heroism of its leaders, and must “resolutely oppose any wrong tendency to distort and vilify the party’s history”.’

Ah, yes. Young people must be “made to appreciate” their leaders’ heroism. And “wrong tendencies” must be stamped out. Including the tendency to demonstrate and wave banners that criticise those in power.

In the China described by Ian Johnson, standing between the brute strength of Xi’s government and the continuing trauma of repression are the “underground historians”, those who find ways to gather evidence, record testimony and disseminate information. The second half of his book and his conclusion express hope that the new technologies for communication are making it possible for these underground historians to connect with others and archive history.

Having worked for most of his life in China as a correspondent for influential American news outlets, Johnson is himself part of the networks he now considers crucial to the counter-history that challenges the official amnesia imposed by the Government.

Talking about the United States, Johnson points out that the lack of interest in China, the fact that fewer and fewer study the language, could be countered by bringing:

‘…inspiring people to come for residencies, to mentor, and to lecture – rather than as refugees when they are at the end of their rope – (which) would expose our societies to the living traditions of Chinese civilisation.’

That’s why the denigration of history that is critically engaged with the past is so dangerous; it cancels the curiosity, intelligence and commitment of those who write to help us understand history, calling it negativity, or, as Xi does, “nihilistic”.

More in Independent Australia.

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Is China a democracy or a dictatorship? – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

Why is China calling itself a democracy when it is not according to most definitions? China scholar Ian Johnson, a fellow at the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin, discusses this and other political issues at the Council on Foreign Relations. In the same way, it is not a dictatorship where Xi Jinping can decide on all issues in the country, he says.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China’s state of the economy – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein discusses the current state of China’s economy, how consumer confidence is slowly recovering, and why the fear of geopolitical tensions stops them from spending more in the economy. And why investors should be careful in investing right now in the second economy of the world.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why the US keeps up economic pressure on China – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The USA is dealing with huge problems and cannot afford to challenge China directly, but decided to stabilize the relations between both countries, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC-TV18. But the USA is for sure keeping economic pressure going, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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The current state of US-China relations – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih (left) at the discussion

China expert Victor Shih, Director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses the current state of US-China relations with Bill Gertz of the Washington Post, covering questions like, “Is China an existential threat or a competitor?” and “Is China trying to replace the US as hegemon?” at PNYX.

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Pleas

China needs US firms to invest but those fear more Biden restrictions – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

President Xi Jinping has touched down in the US for talks with US President Joe Biden in an effort to get the relations on track between both countries. China’s economy needs US investments, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC, but US firms fear Biden might announce more restrictions on trade with China. While the economy is doing bad, China is still the world’s largest retail market and the US cannot afford to stay away, he adds.

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How does the Communist Party justifies its rule by controlling history – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

History called the communist party to save China, that is the way history is used by the party, says author Ian Johnson in a speech about his newly published book Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future in WorldOregon.  But the official history doesn’t remain unchallenged. “Ian Johnson explores how some of China’s best-known writers, filmmakers, and artists have overcome crackdowns and censorship to forge a nationwide movement that challenges the Communist Party on its most hallowed ground: its control of history,” says the website.

“Based on years of first-hand research in Xi Jinping’s China, Sparks challenges stereotypes of a China where the state has quashed all free thought, revealing instead a country engaged in one of humanity’s great struggles of memory against forgetting—a battle that will shape the China that emerges in the mid-21st century.”

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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What to watch at the Biden-Xi Summit? – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

While the expectations for next week’s meeting between the presidents Biden and Xi are not high, there are four points to watch, writes China analyst Ian Johnson at the website of the Council on Foreign Relations. Those are Taiwan, fentanyl, the Israel-Hamas war, and Climate actions.

Ian Johnson:

In short, don’t expect huge breakthroughs. Gone are the days when presidents and premiers met Chinese leaders and came back with a briefcase full of business deals or other “deliverables.” And that’s not a bad thing. Those meetings were often empty, and many of the deals didn’t pan out—letters of intent to invest often languished, and China sometimes promised market access without delivering. Even though it’s easy to reject “empty talk,” it’s important that top leaders keep the channels of communication open.

Isn’t that true for all countries?

No, it matters more in dealing with China. The reason is that Beijing makes it hard for U.S. officials to understand who is advising Xi or what the decision-making channels are. Last year, Xi was appointed to an unprecedented third term as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, a position that essentially allows him to run China indefinitely. (Earlier this year, he got a third term as president, but this is an honorific title in the Chinese political system.) Now that he’s ended term limits and has this new third term, Xi is surrounded by people who owe their allegiance to him almost exclusively. Meanwhile, people of Xi’s age—he turned seventy earlier this year— have all retired. Also worrying is that China’s foreign and defense ministers both appear to have been sacked, and the heads of the military’s prestigious Rocket Force were also purged earlier this year, two rare examples of trouble at the top. The changes make it even harder to fathom who is running the show beyond Xi and his immediate circle of loyalists.

So there’s a real possibility that Xi is surrounded by yes-men, who might not want to tell him bad news. In this context, it matters that the president of the United States can talk to him directly to explain why American perceptions of China are so negative and what the direct risks this could bring.

It’s not clear, for example, if Xi is directly aware of risky maneuvers by the Chinese military in recent weeks—notably, the buzzing of a U.S. bomber flying in international airspace. Decisions about such exercises are probably made by commanders on the ground, but they are based on guidelines issued by Beijing. Letting Xi know directly that these events are dangerous and potentially catastrophic could be useful.

More at the website of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why the passing of a colorless premier might matter to Xi Jinping – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

During his life, former Prime Minister Li Keqiang was mainly remembered for being side-lined by Xi Jinping. But after his sudden death he might become a problem for his former boss, writes author Ian Johnson at the Council on Foreign Relations, as it might be used as a way for the hidden criticizing of Xi.

Ian Johnson:

The sudden death of former Chinese premier Li Keqiang is the latest in a steady series of crises, mishaps, and blunders to afflict top leader Xi Jinping over the past two years.

The official Xinhua news agency said in a terse report that Mr. Li, 68, died of a heart attack early Friday morning in Shanghai. The death clearly caught Chinese officialdom off guard because an obituary had not been prepared, with the agency saying one would be issued later.

Mr. Li’s death is unlikely to alter the power dynamic at the top of China’s leadership. He had already retired from all posts and was not part of Xi’s inner circle. Although often seen as a pro-reformist moderate in contrast to the more authoritarian-minded Mr. Xi–he held a PhD in economics, and was seen as quick-witted–he never appeared to challenge his boss’s hardline policies. Compared to his more dynamic predecessors, especially the hard-charging Zhu Rongji in the 1990s and the reform-oriented (if tainted by family corruption) Wen Jiabao in the 2000s, Mr. Li was easily one of the most colorless premiers in the nearly 75-year history of the People’s Republic.

More at the website of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Financial Commission: another pillar in China’s new government structure – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Xi Jinping has been building up a new government structure and the just-installed Central Financial Commission will be key in making financial decisions for the central government, says political analyst Victor Shih in the Financial Times. The “de facto watchdog, planner, and decision maker for China’s US$61tn financial sector, weakening the power of state institutions such as the People’s Bank of China and China Securities Regulatory Commission.”

The Financial Times:

Wang Jiang, a veteran state banker, has been appointed executive deputy director of the office of the commission, reporting to He Lifeng, a vice-premier and Xi’s new economic tsar, the people familiar with the new body said.

Victor Shih, professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, San Diego, said businesses should expect to be affected by the commission, which will have the final say on important deals including major mergers and joint ventures.

Shih said the commission would also control mid-level state financial sector personnel appointments and the regulations applied by government agencies. State institutions such as the central bank have already suffered a decline.

Since August, the chairs of some state banks have in effect outranked the PBoC governor in the Communist party hierarchy.

More in the Financial Times.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How China’s leadership changed its contract with the people – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

China has entered a new era, where the communist party has changed its contract with the people, says economist Arthur Kroeber, according to Bloomberg. The new iteration? It’s called values-based legitimacy.

Bloomberg:

China’s recent economic performance and policymaking have prompted a slew of economists—Bloomberg’s included—to lower their estimates of the country’s trend growth rate for coming years. But don’t count on this to undermine the Chinese Communist Party’s grip.For decades, the CCP encouraged the idea that its legitimacy flowed in large part from stoking rapid growth. Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader famous for his “reform and opening up” mantra, declared that development is the “hard principle” driving policy. Year after year, China’s leaders have touted GDP figures showing how the party was delivering on this mandate.

Go back further than Deng and you’ll find a different contract between Beijing and its people. Mao Zedong’s initial version was ensuring the common people won the “class struggle” against land-owners and businesspeople (in part through mass killings).

These days, Xi is writing up another contract, says Arthur Kroeber, a China economist and founding partner at Gavekal Dragonomics. In a recent lecture, he said “there’s a fairly extensive propaganda effort going on to shift away from that old social contract,” in part to avert mass criticism of a slowdown in Chinese growth.

The new iteration? It’s called values-based legitimacy.

What are the components of this new contract? They include culture, history, nationalism and an anti-corruption drive aimed at easing concerns about rising inequality.

More at Bloomberg.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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