Doubling US imports sounds not feasible for China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

While a signing ceremony seems likely for January, some of the arrangements in the phase one trade deal between China and the US sound impossible to achieve, says economist Arthur Kroeber at Money Week. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, he says.

Money Week:

We have a ‘phase one’ deal. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, as Arthur Kroeber notes on Gavekal. 

But it’s likely to happen. So what does it do? New tariffs that were due to kick in on yesterday are being indefinitely deferred. Tariffs imposed on China by the US at the start of September, will be halved, to 7.5%. The earlier tariffs all stay in place. China says it will more than double imports from the US by 2021. 

Kroeber suggests this is hard to meet “in the real world”. Chinese imports from the US hit $130bn in 2017. The idea that it will be able to boost this by $200bn by 2021 seems unrealistic given that the “biggest previous two-year jump” came in at less than $40bn.

More at Money Week.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the ongoing trade war between China and the US? Do check out this list.

Origin food overrules brands for Chinese consumers - James Roy

James Roy

The origin of food is key for Chinese consumers, since brands can be made everywhere, including China, says retail analyst James Roy in FreshPlaza. "Brands are almost no longer important to the Chinese consumer when it comes to food, as long as the product's origin is foreign."

FreshPlaza:

Affluent Chinese will always choose imported products over local ones, said James Roy, a business analyst at China Market Research Group. Brands are almost no longer important to the Chinese consumer when it comes to food, as long as the product's origin is foreign. 

"For foreign food and agriculture brands, it's really important to emphasize where they are manufactured, and to show where it comes from," said Roy. 

Governments are encouraging their exporters to take advantage of such demand. During a visit to promote agricultural products in China earlier this year, EU Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan said that an estimated 3 million jobs in Europe already directly depend on export sales to China, many of them in the agriculture sector.

More in FreshPlaza.

James Roy is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more branding experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.