Why China’s economy is weak, but surviving in the long run – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s consumers are still nervous, the economy is weak, but looking good in the longer run, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Consumers are trading down now, but both real estate and infrastructure are not helping the economy, he adds. In the next decade, China’s middle class will grow from 400 to 800 million. Rein saw many of his clients move temporarily to Japan but is sure they will return to China.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on China’s consumption? Do check out this list.

The US should improve its infrastructure, just like China did – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The US should improve its infrastructure, just as China did, says business analyst Shaun Rein at the CGTN. He looks back at his 23 years in China, and how traveling has become so much easier, because of heavy investments in the fast speed railways network in the country.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form. 

At the China Speakers Bureau, we start to organize online seminars. Are you interested in our plans? Do get in touch.

Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

On phantom facts and China bears - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The China bears should get their facts straight, writes business analyst Shaun Rein in CNBC. He takes aim at economist Nouriel Roubini and MIT professor Huang Yasheng.

Shaun Rein's arguments against Huang Yasheng:

Huang ..., in a July 6, 2011 blog post in the New York Times says, “Beijing and Shanghai have some of the lowest population densities among the world’s big metropolises.” From this Huang concludes that Shanghai’s infrastructure buildup is not needed.

In fact, Shanghai has the highest density of urban populations in the world at official population numbers, which does even include millions of unregistered workers in the city. It is not uncommon for Shanghai families of three or more to live in less than an area of 200 square feet per person, while the average home in America is 10 times that size.

Most workers in the restaurant and construction industries live in sub-human dormitories, where eight people or more share a room. Infrastructure spending is badly needed to relieve living congestion by allowing for cheaper land sales farther from the city center just to get basic living space for people.

Huang also underestimates the middle class’s purchasing power, but he does bring up important issues. Namely, China needs to avoid falling into the middle-income trap that many developing countries do when per capita GDP hits $6,000 a year and stagnate. If it does not, China will be more like a Mexico, with huge income disparity between the rich and poor, rather than the world’s leading economic superpower.

More in CNCB

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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All is not rosy in China's real estate - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Although an acknowledged bull when it comes to the real estate in China, Shaun Rein admits in his latest Forbes column the industry faces huge dangers too. Three to be precise:

First, there simply is not enough low- and middle-income housing, because developers build luxury apartments where the fattest margins are...

Second, building quality homes in the middle of nowhere does no good without cheap and convenient transportation, so China actually needs to invest more, not less, as many argue, in infrastructure. Many bears like Prof. Michael Pettis of Peking University fret that China is relying too heavily on infrastructure investment for its growth gains and is becoming like Japan in the 1990s. Such analysis surprisingly fails to take into account the differences between China's and Japan's spending and the fact that many Chinese are still heartbreakingly poor while Japan's quality of life is arguable higher than America's...

Also, while no economy is bubble-free

China's economy is still starting from a low point, and its market remains inefficient overall. More than 400 million people are shifting from agricultural lives to urban ones, and they will need more homes and a change in economic structuring. Companies are investing in all that... China has very real economic challenges to face. However, these challenges do not threaten a systemic collapse.

Much more at Forbes.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Beijing is getting it too

A beautiful picture of Beijing's emerging infrastructure. Well, from a distance it looks nice, although it is not that good when you are standing under one of the bridges. I picked it up at Virtual China, but to there it made already a long way.