Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
China was pretty well off in the first month of the Iran war, but its economy is now feeling the backlash that other economies already felt earlier because of the lack of energy, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at the Thinkers’ Forum. Now the global economy is going to hit a wall, he adds.
Some rumours suggest China will use the ongoing geopolitical tension to prepare for a takeover of Taiwan. Wrong, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, in a wide-ranging podcast with Cyrus Janssen at the Singjup0st. “Every six months,” says Rein, “somebody hires me since the late 90s, saying, This is the perfect time for Taiwan to be invaded and taken over by mainland China.’ And so every six months for the last 29 years, I’ve been giving speeches, keynotes, workshop sessions, because I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon.”
The Singjupost:
SHAUN REIN: So for your audience who don’t know me, I’m actually American, but I’ve been in China for most of the last 29 years. And one of the ways that I’ve made a lot of money, Cyrus, frankly, is every six months, somebody hires me ever since the late 90s, saying, “This is the perfect time for Taiwan to be invaded and taken over by mainland China.” And so every six months for the last 29 years, I’ve been giving speeches, keynotes, workshop sessions, because I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon.
I remember in 2022, at the height of COVID, the Chinese economy was probably in a recession. Even though the official figures didn’t say that, people were miserable. That would have been a great time for the CPC to invade Taiwan to distract people from the overhang of COVID as well as from the weak economy.
There are a number of reasons why, Cyrus, that I don’t view a military invasion to be imminent. The first, and this is a little bit more touchy, but you got to remember there are nine people on the Central Military Commission. This is the highest military commission in China. Seven of the nine have been arrested or publicly investigated in the last year and a half for corruption. Now, I don’t know if it’s factional fighting or if it’s truly corruption. It could truly be corruption because the military was rotten to the core over the last several decades. But what it means is when you take out seven of the nine top military leaders and you only have two left, and one of them is Xi Jinping himself, who’s obviously not a military leader, I’m not sure that you have the military leadership in place to launch something like a Taiwan invasion. That’s the first point.
The second point is China, I think, likes to do more of a “buy by influence” approach. Now, what do I mean by this? In Xinjiang and Tibet, these two regions did have a lot of ethnic unrest 10, 15 years ago. We have to be honest about that. So what did China do? Well, they launched huge programs to build up the medical care sectors, to build up the education sectors and build up infrastructure. They invested billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars into Tibet and Xinjiang. Essentially, their idea was make the life of these minorities better and gain the support from the elites in these regions to support the CPC. And it’s worked fantastically, as we’ve talked about in the past.
I’ve been to Tibet and Xinjiang three times, and probably the most optimistic consumers in China are actually the ethnic minorities, the Tibetans and the Uyghurs in these two provinces, because now they have a good quality of life.
Now, what has China done? They’ve done the same thing with Hong Kong. When they took over Hong Kong from the British in 1997, instead of calling it a governor, instead of calling it a mayor, they called the head of Hong Kong the chief executive, because they wanted to show the people of Hong Kong that they were pro business still. Now, here’s what China did — they gave the tycoons like Li Ka Shing, the Quok family, the Chung family, the best property locations in China and helped them make a lot of money. If you look at Huaihai Road or Wangfujing in Beijing, the best prime locations are all controlled by Hong Kong tycoons because basically China wanted to buy their support.
Now it was a lot harder to work in Hong Kong because Hong Kong per capita GDP is higher than mainland China’s, because there’s a lot of Christianity and Cardinal Zen, who was the Catholic cardinal there, was very anti-CPC and would be one of the harshest critics. So it was very hard to buy the support of the Hong Kong people, which is why you saw the protests in 2014 with the umbrella protests and then the terrorism and rioting in 2019.
So China now, though, has been slowly able to succeed in buying the support of Hong Kongers who’ve stayed in Hong Kong by integrating Hong Kong with Greater Bay. I’ve spent a lot of time in Hong Kong in the last six months and Stephen Roach was wrong, 100%. Hong Kong is not dead. It’s booming again. It was the largest IPO market in 2025. It’s electric because China was trying to help the people of Hong Kong through economic benefits.
So that was kind of a long winded answer. But let’s go back to Taiwan.
When it comes to Taiwan, Cyrus, I view that China is trying to give a lot of economic incentives to the people of Taiwan. So in Fujian Province, the province that’s closest to Taiwan, they’ve given housing, education and medical benefits to any Taiwanese compatriots who decide to move to Fujian.
Now, most importantly, you need to look at Taiwan’s political system, which is really divided into two — the DPP, who are currently in charge, and the current president has another five year term. But when you look at the KMT or the Guomindang, they actually have really good relations with the CPC right now. The new chairwoman of the KMT actually earlier this week said she would like to come and meet with Xi Jinping himself. The Vice Chairman of the KMT over the last couple of years has been to China and has been treated like a hero. And even more importantly, Cyrus, is President Ma — the former President of Taiwan — who has come into mainland China, been treated like a hero and met with Xi Jinping himself.
So it’s a long winded answer. But what I expect to happen is China is going to try to dole out more and more economic incentives to the Taiwanese to gain their support like they did in Tibet, Xinjiang, and starting to get in Hong Kong. And they’re going to wait and see. Will the KMT win the presidency in several years? Because then you might be able to get a one country, two systems integration in Taiwan if the KMT is in charge, in the same way that China was able to do it with Hong Kong.
At the end of the day, Cyrus, the Chinese are not warmongering like the Americans. They view that the Taiwanese are their cousins and they don’t want to see any death. So I’m not concerned. Now, you can ask me this in six months and I’m sure some investment banks will do that. And I’ll write that $50,000 check again for a keynote.
Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein looks at the impact the Iran war might have on China if the hostilities go on for two months or more. The fallout might last for years to come, not only for the US but also for China, he tells OAN.
Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, author ofThe Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, dives into the upheaval in the Middle East and explains how a possible US financial crisis could make China the world’s largest economy, as he tells in a discussion with David Lin. Chinese feel Trump is the best thing that could happen to China, he adds.
While most Chinese consumers still worry about their future, the top 10 percent wealthy had a surprisingly good 2025 and will be around spending during the Chinese New Year, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC.
Stagnation is one of China’s economic key issues, but most China experts miss what is really going on because they left the country a decade ago, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to Glenn Diesen, author of “The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order”. Unlike the previous financial crisis, the Chinese are sitting on a load of money and they are not in panic, but also do not spend their resources.
Returns on China’s stock markets have been great, but that reflects only marginally on the consumer market, warns Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Only six percent of Chinese citizens hold equity, unlike, for example, the US, he says. 90 Percent is still trading down and not spending more on luxury goods, he adds.
When you do not acknowledge your own history, the same mistakes can be made again, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, analysing the recent tensions between China and Japan. Japanese are rewriting history, he argues in the Thinkers Forum, from the hundreds of thousands of sex slaves in China and other parts of Asia, to today.
Europe could have been a winner in the trade war between China and the US, says political analyst Shaun Rein at the Thinkers Forum. Not only did they lose the opportunity to win from the trade war, but they are going to be the larger economic losers of the next decade, becoming an open-air museum, he adds.
Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein explains why China has the upper hand in the current trade war with the US. For anything the US does not want to send to China, China has an alternative to hit back, he says at the Thinkers Forum.
Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein reports on the latest research on China’s consumers. While spending might be down for the next months, consumers are not driven by nationalism, he tells CNBC. It is economic anxiety that makes the difference, he says.
Shaun Rein, Managing Director of China Market Research Group, argues that China holds a stronger position in the current trade conflict with the US. He cites US vulnerability during the Christmas shopping season, potential pressure on Trump from his support base, and China’s reduced dependence on the US market. China has diversified its suppliers, limited US reliance to semiconductors and ethane, sold half its US dollar holdings, and is promoting RMB use in international trade. These moves are contributing to de-dollarization trends and impacting gold prices and cryptocurrency interest. Tensions have escalated with China threatening export controls on rare earth materials.
In the ongoing saga of US-China trade relations, a market research expert suggests that China may have the advantage. Shaun Rein, Managing Director of the China Market Research Group, presents a compelling case for China’s stronger position in the current trade standoff with the United States….
Rein criticizes the US for allegedly breaking earlier agreements reached between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In response, China has threatened to impose export controls on rare earth materials, further escalating tensions.
While the situation remains fluid, Rein’s analysis suggests that China may be better positioned to weather the current trade tensions. However, the long-term implications for both nations and the global economy remain to be seen. As always, investors and policymakers should closely monitor developments in this critical relationship.
China’s consumers are dramatically changing their spending habits, says business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. They might not spend on EVs and real estate, but they are sitting on massive savings and will spend when they see the value. Why is Legoland winning the fight for the Chinese consumer, while Starbucks is losing it? Why do they enjoy holidays in mainland China, rather than Thailand or Europe?
U.S. President Donald Trump may be enthusiastic about the trade deal between China and the U.S., which was closed in London this week. However, business analyst Shaun Rein points out that the deal is lacking crucial details and might not work, as he notes in The Economic Times. “So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump,” he adds.
Shaun Rein:
Trump is saying the deal has been signed and he has been talking about that the Chinese are going to send rare earths and magnets in advance to whatever the United States needs because what you have seen in the last month is the lack of rare earths that were exported to the United States has really crippled the American economy.
You can have companies, the big automakers like Ford and GM are rumoured to say, we need to relocate our manufacturing to China, so we can get access to rare earths despite the heavy tariffs that they would then incur by going into the United States. But here is the thing, China’s media has been a lot more circumspect with the details of this so-called trade agreement.
China has said the rumour is that they will give maybe export licenses to rare earths on a six-month trial basis to American companies. So, basically Trump is exaggerating the win in his mind and China is being a lot more honest probably saying well we do not have all the details ironed out, we want to come to an agreement but quite frankly China has the upper hand in the trade war with the United States right now…
The United States needs a deal. Frankly, China controls about 30-35% of global manufacturing. So, America might have the money, they might have the capital, but they need to buy the products from China. At the end of the day, China makes not just rare earths, about 90% of refined rare earths, but they also make most of the ibuprofen, most of the Tylenol.
Most of the antibiotics in the world comes from China. So, at the end of the day, that is real leverage. So, for instance in 2017, 18% of Chinese exports went to the US, that number is down to 14%. China on the other hand has shifted and exports to Asean, has gone up to 16%.
So, basically, it is a game of chicken right now. China’s economy is hurting, do not get me wg. There are about 15 million people who are involved in the export sector. You have seen that the CPI index has dropped about 0.1%. So, we are dealing with the D-word, deflation.
So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump and Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick because at the end of the day, the Americans need to buy from China. They cannot buy antibiotics from any other country in the world except for a little bit from India.
