In an interview with Keith Yap, shanghai-based best-seller author and business analyst Shaun Rein, recently published r and explains what the West gets wrong about China’s economy and how the country is working.
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Financial expert Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses today’s state of China’s economy at the Centre for Geopolitics with William Hurst, and how it has developed in the 25-year long collaboration between both.
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China has started to push capital into its sluggish economy, but economists have different opinions on what the government wants to achieve. According to Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, its financial measures are more about stabilizing its economy, not about a full-blown stimulus as it did in the past, he says at the ChinaFile.
Arthur Kroeber:
China’s economic support measures are better described as stabilization than stimulus. Unlike in previous full-bore stimulus programs, for instance in 2008 and 2015, the aim today is not to engineer a boom but simply to halt the deterioration in economic conditions evident in the past few months, and stabilize growth at around the target of 5 percent.
China’s long-term economic strategy has not changed. Xi Jinping’s intent, as outlined in the Third Plenum decision this past July, is to shift capital from real estate and infrastructure into technology-intensive manufacturing. The aspiration is that the productivity gains from high-tech industries will deliver the long-run growth that China needs, offsetting the impact of a declining population and other negative factors. Another key goal of this strategy is to ensure that China becomes self-sufficient in core technologies, enabling it to withstand the pressure of U.S. containment policies. The leadership is fully prepared to tolerate a period of relatively sluggish growth as the price of making this structural shift.
But the stabilization policies of the last month show the limits of this tolerance. They also reflect a judgment that the contraction of the property sector, now into its fourth year, has gone far enough, and that policy should shift from restrictive to modestly supportive. The final policy move, expected in early November—issuance of long-term central government debt to swap for provincial debt—is a long-overdue recognition that the financial position of heavily indebted provinces is unsustainable, and that direct fiscal support from Beijing is needed.
Over the next year or so, the economic package is likely to succeed in its limited aims: reversing the decline in housing sales, and providing local governments with relief from interest payments so they can pay back wages to their employees and overdue bills to the companies that supply them with goods and services. This should be enough to stabilize GDP growth at somewhere close to the 5 percent target. The benefits to the rest of the world, however, will be modest. Neither consumer spending nor commodity demand will enjoy a dramatic pickup. And Beijing’s steady commitment to its investment-first growth strategy means that other countries will still face the challenge of intense competition from low-priced Chinese imports.
More opinions at the ChinaFile.
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The Hurun China rich list published its 2024 results and its chairman Rupert Hoogewerf saw 30 percent of the country’s billionaires disappear, he says on CNBC. “The Hurun China Rich List has shrunk for an unprecedented third year running, as China’s economy and stock markets had a difficult year,” said Rupert Hoogewerf.
CNBC:
China has 1,094 individuals with wealth exceeding 5 billion yuan ($700 million), down by 12% or 147 individuals from the previous year, according to Hurun Research. The combined wealth of these entrepreneurs amounted to $3 trillion, 10% lower than last year.
The country’s billionaire count dropped by 142 to 753 from a year earlier — and down more than 30% from the 2021 high of 1,185.
“The Hurun China Rich List has shrunk for an unprecedented third year running, as China’s economy and stock markets had a difficult year,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun report chairman and chief researcher.The current rich list predominantly comprises entrepreneurs from the technology, consumer electronics and new energy space, from what used to be dominated by real estate developers, Hoogewerf noted.
“The stories of the individuals on the Hurun China Rich List tell the story of the Chinese economy,” he said.
The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs are also more international than their predecessors, Hoogewerf observed, citing how ByteDance’s Zhang went global with TikTok and Pinduoduo’s Huang crafted Temu’s ascent as a global e-commerce hub.
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Despite the hope of the international financial community, China is not heading for structural reforms, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to CNBC. Pushing up demand is not high on the agenda for China’s leadership, he says, and they do not want to push up debts levels to new heights.
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Leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, says most economists are wrong in suggesting China wants to push consumer demand. Fixing stability is key, he says according to MSN.
MSN:
One expert suggested that investors are misunderstanding China’s intent in providing the stimulus boosts. According to Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, Beijing’s intent isn’t to accelerate the economy by enabling consumers, but simply to stabilize it.
“The economic aims are to stabilize growth and prevent deflation from tightening its grip,” he wrote in the Financial Times. “The market goal is to restore enough confidence so that equity prices post steady, moderate rises. This will reopen the window for new listings and enable the stock market to resume its assigned role of financing China’s industrial policy ambitions.”
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Business analyst Shaun Rein, author of r, explains why China’s mini-bazooka will not help its economy in the long run. People need a serious fiscal stimulus, so they are confident about the economy again, he argues in a talk with David Lin. “People have to feel safe again before they are going to spend the money they made again,” he adds.
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Financial analyst Shaun Rein expects the stock markets to rally for another two to three weeks, as Chinese investors return from their holidays and try to gain on the A-shares bump, he tells CNBC. The economy is still a mess, and export is having some problems, but in the short term stock markets will do fine, he says.
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Some e-commerce firms in China have profited from a rally of their stocks, triggered off by a major financial stimulus, but that might not help the economy to really improve, says financial analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. It’s a rally of exuberance, he adds, and might only triple down into the economy in six to nine months. The real problem is for example companies cannot fire their staff very easily, and make their lives hard, hoping they will leave by themselves, he says.
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China’s massive financial stimulus is good for the short term, but the economy needs more structural change, away from real estate, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC. While it is good Xi Jinping moves away from politics and ideology and turns to the economy, more is needed to restore long-term confidence in the economy by the consumers, he adds.
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China’s electric car makers are doing pretty well, certainly domestically and – perhaps except the US – also internationally, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know. Excess capacity seems mainly a problem for traditional car makers, as demand for EV vehicles is only picking up. Internationally EV makers might face some restrictions, but they seem able to manage those, Kroeber adds in a debate organised by the Asia Society.
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Reuters reviews China’s latest blockbuster “Upstream”, casting a rare and harsh light on the country’s biggest economic pain points. “An uncertain job market, downward mobility, and the hardscrabble life of millions who are working gig jobs.” Marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok sees a profound change among the previously optimistic consumers, who pushed ahead the country’s economy in the past, she tells Reuters.
Reuters:
Ashley Dudarenok has written books on Chinese business and consumer trends.
“It is a rather realistic depiction of the psyche of many Chinese people today. Previously, if we remember five years ago, 10 years ago, what set China very strongly apart was this very positive mindset of the consumer of an average business person. Because there was this strong underlying belief that tomorrow is going to be better than today, the economy is going to be better, opportunities are going to be better, technology is going to, you know, drive us forward. ‘I’m going to build my skills and my future is going to be better.’ Today that belief is not there.”
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China’s economic situation has deteriorated over the past two months, says business analyst Shaun Rein in a discussion on CNBC. The hope for a financial bazooka to boost the economy by the government has not materialized and is unlikely to do so. The government seems fine with the current 4/5% growth and also lacks the money to spend as tax income has remained poor, while geopolitical challenges forces the Chinese government to be prudent too.
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Whether the world is heading for a recession does not depend on the state of China’s economy, but on demand in de US, says China economist Arthur Kroeber at the CNBC. In the eyes of Xi Jinping, China is not doing as bad as some economists say it does, he adds.
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China’s consumers are still nervous, the economy is weak, but looking good in the longer run, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Consumers are trading down now, but both real estate and infrastructure are not helping the economy, he adds. In the next decade, China’s middle class will grow from 400 to 800 million. Rein saw many of his clients move temporarily to Japan but is sure they will return to China.
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