Showing posts with label crackdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crackdown. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Buying cheaper China shares now might be risky – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

The recent China regulatory crackdown on tech firms US IPO’s caused a dip in the value of shares, but financial analyst Arthur Kroeber warns that jumping on the bandwagon now also carries huge risks, according to Investing.com.

Investing.com:

The weakness in China shares may offer a buying opportunity, but there are risks to consider, says Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Research, an investment consultancy. “We now know this is a regulatory minefield, and those who expose themselves to the sector are taking on a lot of volatility.” He adds that “If your horizon is long term, this is going to be one of the growth stories of the next decade and you have to ride it out. But if you are more short term, you may say it’s too complicated and come back in a year when things have calmed down.”

More at Investing.com

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

 Are you looking for more experts on managing your China risk? Do check out this list.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Sex, porn and their lessons for business - Shaun Rein

shaunreinShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein uses the lessons business can learn from the mixed messages the government is sending on porn and sex. On the internet it is porn crackdown all along the line, while sex and prostitution are everywhere commercially available.
The lesson is so obvious, many veterans like Shaun Rein forget to explain it to relative newcomers in China. In Forbes he makes up for that omission, The government is not one monolith with one message, but a conglomerate of competing interests, You have to be aware of this minefield of conflicting interests to survive in China. At a central level - and the internet is strictly controlled by that level - pornography and prostitution are not done.
At the local level police and other officials face different issues. Police and local officials are way underpaid and aren't allowed to move into the private sector after they've reached a certain rank. Even relatively senior local officials often make only several hundred dollars a month. They get lots of benefits, like housing and cars, but they don't have much personal money of their own. One result is that corrupt officials protect brothels for protection fees.
These corrupt officials and police don't want to lose that income, so they let brothels operate freely as long as they don't become hubs for more serious crimes, like drug sales, or violence--and as long as there isn't overwhelming political will to shut things down, as there was around the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the run up to the World Expo in Shanghai this year. Many brothels throughout the country were shuttered in the three months leading up to the Olympics, but most were up and running again soon after.
More important lessons in Forbes.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Internet censorship as an economic indicator - Paul Denlinger

pauldenlingerPaul Denlinger  via Flickr
Business analyst Paul Denlinger makes at his weblog China Vortex a smart connection between the recent upsurge in internet crackdowns and the expected economic uncertainty caused by an expected economic downturn and China's leadership swap in 2012. China's leaders turn to more control in times of economic uncertainty:
When you put this into the Chinese context of domestic politics, and see that the Chinese leadership will be handed over to a new president and premier in 2012, what is happening on the Internet makes perfect sense. The current leadership of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are due for retirement then, and will hand over leadership to a new leadership team. With two years left in their term, it is safe to say that world markets look unstable, with another wall of debt about to hit the US and Europe in the next year, further dampening consumer spending in the west. How can they manage a smooth handover without things getting unstable?
More at the China Vortex.

Commercial
Paul Denlinger is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Crackdowns are in the air again


a crackdown against piracy in Fuzhou

Regular readers of this weblog know I get mildly amused when Western media start writing about crackdowns, especially when the government tries to go after the internet. This week we had even two cases.

First, China's central government promised Germany to crack down on efforts to hack official German sites. A story in the German magazine Der Spiegel said that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had been hacking the computer systems of important German ministries.

The story was stinking like a one week dead fish already from the start and not only because of the lack of proof of the allegations. The "security breach" was already discovered back in May, but only published just ahead of the visit of Bundeskanzlerin Merkel to China. That indicates a clear move to set the political agenda and perhaps give other subjects lower priority.


Let's look at the reality online. We just had this beautiful story about an Australian teenager who unabled twice in one day expensive porn filters the Australian government had activated. Then there is the story of this other teenager who unlocked Apple's iPhone successfully. Of course, when the German state security discovers they have been hacked, they cannot say they have an issue with perhaps a few million bored Chinese teenagers. They have to come with something big, say, the PLA. I side here with some of my Chinese friends who say Chinese teenagers are probably better positioned to crack websites than the PLA.

Equally funny was the pledge by some of China's largest weblog hosts, including Yahoo and Microsoft, to act responsibly and rely on self-discipline, whatever that could mean. Of course, this was the basis of many alarmist articles, I happily ignored. Fortunately, Rebecca MacKinnon decided to read some Chinese bloggers before jumping on the bandwagon of the alarmists.

They seem to view the pledge as a bunch of bureaucrats making yet another meaningless pledge to justify their existence. Keso points to a long list of other self-discipline pledges made over the past few years which, he says "other than giving us joke material, they've pretty much not amounted anything."

Most beautiful saying: "loud thunder with light rain". As Rebecca notes, just following blindly press releases by organizations like Reporters Sans Frontieres or others, without confirming first with Chinese sources, it not done anymore. More at Rconversations.