Business guru Shaun Rein challenges Australia’s recent wave of Sinophobia by its politicians, and not questioned by its prime-minister Scott Morrison, while Australia and China are natural allies, says Rein.
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.
Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.
More than three million Chinese students went to the US for their study, but with the rising sinophobia both the US and Australia are losing out huge advantages of those eager learners, says business analyst Shaun Rein to state-broadcaster CGTN. Even losing only tuition fees might cost them dearly, he adds.
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.
Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.
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| Shaun Rein |
The relationship between Australia and China is really bad right now. It's probably the worst that it's been in the last 30 years. Australia needs to be very careful because China is Australia's largest customer.
There are a number of problematic areas that are causing tension between the two countries. The first is that the U.S. is using Australia as a proxy or a tool to try to contain and destabilize China. I think this is part of what we've seen with the rioting in Hong Kong, with the attacks on Huawei, as well as on the U.S.-China trade war. So the United States is working closely with its allies, especially those in the Five Eyes, like Australia, like the United Kingdom, like Canada, to try to contain China's growth and China's increasing influence globally. Scott Morrison is basically a lapdog of Donald Trump and is just getting out in front and criticizing China.More arguments at CGTN.
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| Ian Johnson |
It is not only the Chinese in Kenya who are embracing Christianity. Many Chinese students in America, Australia and the UK are returning home Christian, says Ian Johnson, author of "The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao." Their conversion chimes with a broader trend at home: China itself is on track to be the world's biggest Christian nation by 2030, by some estimates.For much of the 20th century, Chinese citizens were taught to worship the founding father of the Communist Party, Mao Zedong, the revolutionary leader who destroyed much of the nation's Buddhist and Taoist religious infrastructure during the Cultural Revolution. "There used to be 900 temples in Beijing alone," says Johnson. "Now there are 20."...
Mao's death in 1976 left the Chinese searching for a new value system. Christianity seemed fresh and modern to the country's newly urban residents, Johnson says, although more people in China are still Buddhist.
By 2017, there were between 93 million and 115 million Christians in China -- around 5% of the country's population -- but fewer than 30 million practice in official churches, according to Purdue University scholar Yang Fenggang. If those estimates pan out, there would now be almost as many Christians in China as there are members of the Communist Party, which had an estimated 90 million members in 2016.
That has riled the government. Under President Xi Jinping rhetoric has grown on the need to "Sinicize" religions perceived to be Western, despite the fact many Christians in China do not feel "un-Chinese or foreign," says Johnson.
Today, only state-sanctioned Christian organizations are legal in China. Overcrowded state churches run as many as 5 services a day and their pastors' wages are paid by the government, says Johnson. The alternatives are so-called house churches which operate illegally but can offer a more personal ministry, with pastors on first-name terms with their congregation...
In Chinese state media, the clampdown on faith goes largely unreported and Christianity is "virtually invisible," says Johnson -- the government doesn't want to "encourage anyone to think about religion."
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| William Bao Bean |
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| William Bao Bean |
"I think Australian start-ups should take a look at expanding closer to home. The vast majority do not belong in South East Asia or China," he said. "Something you build for Australia is almost certainly not going to work in the rest of Asia. If you want to expand there, the first step is to take your product and throw it in the garbage. Then take your special sauce and build a new product."
Mr Bao Bean, who has also worked with Softbank China and India and SingTel Innov8, also recommended Aussie entrepreneurs interested in Asia "get out of the building" and spend time exploring and understanding the market before attempting to launch a business there.
Despite his hesitancy around the potential of Australian businesses in Asia, Chinaccelerator has backed two local companies in the last three years – travel services business Chozun and careers platform QLC.io. To meet more local start-ups, Mr Bao Bean has arranged an event at Sydney start-up hub Haymarket HQ on Wednesday. With both companies he has backed, Mr Bao Bean said rather than being specific to the Asian market, he saw potential in them as global platforms. "It comes down to solving a problem. For Chozun, it's not a Chinese problem, it's for international travellers. With QIC, they're solving a problem for millennials and connecting them to jobs in start-ups and those jobs are all with English-speaking companies," he said.
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| Howard French |
in a wide ranging interview about his book in PRI.French: That's really the $64,000 question, and it's kind of the core of my book really. I think that we are entering, right now, a moment of very serious danger, which in my view, and I kind of roll out this argument in an extended way in my book, is likely to last for the next 10, 15, at the longest 20 years, after which, I think, if we can get through this transitional period, tensions will subside.
But we are entering the danger period. And we're entering the danger period because China has advanced so far, so quickly. And its strength, economically speaking, in terms of industrial competitiveness, military capability, and particularly in terms of capacities for self-defense and projection of force in the nearby seas, have come to draw close to the capacities of the United States. In a situation where you’ve had a rising power and a status quo power in history, where the gap between the two narrows rapidly and dramatically, that is the precise situation of highest danger — because neither side is absolutely certain that it is able to prevail in a moment of instability or of conflict.
In the rising power, you have strong constituencies that are tied up in the investment and effort to acquire capabilities, which say, 'what's the point of acquiring all of these capabilities, if you don't use them?'
And meanwhile, in the status quo power, what was once a very clear and unambiguous lead in all of these key areas from economic strength and competitiveness, to high tech to military capacity, as the gap narrows, anxiety begins to increase. And ... a corresponding constituency says, in effect, ‘if we don't do something now to nip this threat in the bud, then it's going to be too late. We have to assert ourselves now to make clear who's in charge, or to make clear what the rules are.’
What's happening in the surrounding region is that, again I think one most usefully must resort to the realism that political scientists speak of. The neighboring powers are watching kind of anxiously to understand which way the wind blows. And so, how did they respond to this? Well the first thing they want to do is to avoid having to explicitly choose sides. And that means that most of them will want to obtain the benefits of economic cooperation with China, because China has been growing so fast and represents a huge market that's right on their doorstep, and to simultaneously enjoy the benefits of security arrangements with the United States, because the United States is this off-shore power far away that has been the trustee and guardian of the established rules of the road and who doesn't seem threatening.
And so you see lots of countries — Vietnam is the most interesting example of this — Indians are training Vietnamese submarine crews on how to run submarines that are used, among other ways, to deter Chinese attacks. The Japanese are helping pay for a new Philippines Coast Guard, and a Vietnamese Coast Guard as well. Australia plays in this game. All of the smaller countries, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand are seeking ways to balance against China — soft balancing against China in ways that are not meant to be offensive to China, but allow them to hedge their bets.
Magistad: You mentioned an important point in your book, which is, if China doesn't show respect for the rules and norms of the region, it pretty much encourages those countries to seek assistance, to seek support, to seek backup from the United States, and that actually plays against China's interests. How much do you think China's leaders are aware of that?
French: So there's a political scientist named Edward Luttwak, who I quote in the book at one point, who has developed a theory. He's basically a strategic thinker. And he's developed a theory, which is not exclusive to China, but describes a mentality or mindset that's common to very fast rising powers, as they begin to emerge, and to begin to more and more obviously contend with the status quo power. This mentality that he speaks of is called Great Power Autism. And, apologies to anyone who might take offense at this — this is not my term.
The point he's trying to make is that rising this far this fast is a giddy experience. And amid the giddiness that you experience during this rise, caution and all sorts of other perspectives are kind of lost. And so, you are not likely to be terribly perceptive of the cost that you may incur by offending other people, meaning in this case, your immediate neighbors, much smaller countries, because you think that when you rise as far and as fast as a country like China has risen, that this is an affirmation of your correctness.
So the next 10 years could be very messy, by accident or by design, to one degree or another. China could push in a way that involves hard power, to make gains in the immediate region at the expense of the status quo powers, most importantly for this conversation, the United States and Japan, which are the most important status quo powers in the region. And there could be a war. Or there could be at least some more limited form of conflict that could be ugly and very dangerous.
That's one scenario that's very real, cannot be discounted, which we must be very attentive to, and that our diplomats have to figure out a way to prevent.
You can imagine a leadership that says 'look, in 10-15 years, we can be down to 2 to 3 percent economic growth per year. ... This is the moment when we have to go we have to make our big push. We have to lock in whatever gains we can lock in right now, meaning in the next 10 years.'
Still, I'm hopeful that we'll muddle through. Once we're past this transitional period of 10, maybe 15 years, then other things begin to happen. The demographics of China, I think, kick in — with hundreds of millions of people over the age of 65, with immense costs in medical care, possibly residential care, and China doesn’t have that infrastructure yet, because it hasn’t yet been at that stage of economic development. And so, if we get past this transitional period of 10 or 15 years, I'm very hopeful that China will say, 'listen, the status quo isn't as bad as we thought it was. We don't need to be such a grudging, victim-centric country. We've done well. We've come a long way.More in PRI.
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| Shaun Rein |
The two weeks of volatility since Donald Trump took office have fuelled anxiety that investments in China will be the next victims of his hostile, unpredictable policies, analysts say.
“It’s a fearful time right now,” said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group. “When we talk to investors, they don’t know where to put their money.”
International investors have been given a blunt reminder that US presidential pledges can do real harm to the global market....
Trump has vowed to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and label Beijing a currency manipulator. His administration has also angered China by talking tough on Taiwan and the South China Sea disputes – tough stances Rein believes Trump will be maintained in his dealings with China.
“He likes to use chaos in order to negotiate,” he said. “My guess is he is going to take a strong stand and criticise China on trade, currency and its military.”...
Looking at the positives, however, Rein is advising his clients to invest in naval weapons companies, which might benefit from China bolstering its navy to tighten its grip on the South China Sea.
Food producers in Australia, New Zealand and Europe might also see surging demand from Chinese consumers if agricultural imports from the US were reduced, he adds.
“Chinese consumers are still spending a lot,” he said. “There is going to be more tension between America and China. Consumers will have to buy food and commodities from Australia and Europe.”
Meantime, tourism in Asian countries could gain from a sharp decline in Chinese travelers heading to the US, Rein said.
More in the South China Morning Post.“Many will start to think it’s unsafe because they see all the protests,” he said, and worry they are going to be targeted by “ultra-white nationalists who do not like Asians”.
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| Shaun Rein |
Mr Rein said that Australia and New Zealand should be beneficiaries of more Chinese looking to buy tourist experiences if the countries can maintain high levels of trust. "They want to travel, they want to come to Australia because frankly, [Australia] and New Zealand have the absolute best images for Chinese consumers. They consider you safe, clean, honest. They want to come here to buy homes, they want to come here to shop because they trust you." However, Mr Rein warned that Chinese tourist numbers to Australia should be higher than they are. Many are finding the visa process more difficult than New Zealand. "Chinese are feeling a little bit less welcomed by the Australian government right now," he said.
China is set to become a global player in mobile services, biotechnology and advanced manufacturing given the pace of factory automation, Mr Rein said. Innovation has been given a boost by the government's crackdown on corruption, which means companies can rely less now on cronyism to support profits.
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| Shaun Rein |
There are a lot of things said about Sydney. But have you ever heard anyone describe its real estate as cheap?
Well, I did last week when I spoke to a consultant and researcher based in China, Shaun Rein. He’s also the author of two books on China. He deals with a lot of wealthy Chinese businessmen.
And he told me that for them, Sydney is cheap. That’s because real estate prices in Shanghai and Beijing at the top level can hit $20,000 to $30,000 a square metre. Even US$3 million doesn’t get you into the best part of town.
In the US and Australia it can get you a mansion on the beach.
Not only is Sydney priced OK for China’s rich, it has a thing that’s pretty rare in the big cities of China these days: blue sky.
That’s because the pollution in China is so bad it’s toxic. The air in China’s mega cities is so rancid it’s breaking world records. ‘Smog days’ are declared to keep kids from going outside, or to school.
It’s driving wealthy Chinese buyers to put their families out of harm’s way. That means buying here. And Chinese pollution is a problem, according to Shaun, that will take 10–15 years to solve.
So don’t expect the money to slow down anytime soon.More in the Daily Reckoning.
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| Rupert Hoogewerf |
The top five destinations for undergraduate and postgraduate study were the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, the survey by luxury publishing and events group Hurun Report shows.
This is the first year New Zealand has entered the top five, overtaking Switzerland. “New Zealand breaking into the ‘Big 5’ shows how far it has come to building a global education programme, attracting many of China’s most successful families to send their children to study there,” commented Rupert Hoogewerf, the Hurun Report’s founder, chairman and chief researcher.
“New Zealand’s all-round education system is able to compete at the very highest levels in the world.”
Survey respondents also nominated their favourite study abroad education agencies, with BE Education voted the best high-end overseas study brand.
Shinyway was voted China’s best education agency for consumers heading to the US, while Haiyi was dubbed the best education agency for Switzerland.
Hoogewerf noted that 80% of wealthy families in China now intend to send their children overseas. The average age for millionaires to send their children abroad for study is 16, while the average for billionaires is 18.
Now in its 11th year, the report is based on a survey of 376 Mainland Chinese ‘millionaires’, each worth RMB10m (US$1.6m) and with an average wealth of $6.8 million.More in the PieNews.
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| Rupert Hoogewerf |
The report, according to Xinhua, found that some 80 percent of the country's rich people have plans to send their children abroad, the highest ratio in the world.
Also, the report found that these rich people are most likely to send their children to the U.S. and the U.K., while other countries like Australia, Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand, Singapore, France and Germany attract most of the rest.
Finally, the report said that the latest average age of the millionaires' children is 16 years old when they were sent abroad.
The publisher of the monthly magazine, Rupert Hoogewerf, also known as Hurun, observed that 10 years ago, Chinese rich people could only send their children to Canada and Australia because there were a large number of Chinese people already living there. Now, because the Chinese rich people have a much broader social network, he said "they can find trusted people anywhere in the world and can rest assured sending children to any country."
Hurun's the "Chinese Luxury Consumer Survey 2014" came from a poll of 400 Chinese parents who each had at least 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) in disposable income, according to China Daily.
For undergraduate study, completing it in the U.S. tops the list among China's richest parents, with the U.K. second and Australia third. For a university degree, U.K. is their first choice and the U.S. as second for their children.
Hoogewerf told China Daily: "We have been keeping a keen eye on overseas education as it indicates a trend in emigration. It is common practice for the rich to send their children overseas as a first step before they move to the country themselves when the children finish their education."
Also, education has long been considered a high priority in China. On average, the country's high-net-worth individuals spend 170,000 yuan (about $27,000), to educate each of their children. This was the third-highest area of their spending, after travel and luxury goods, according to IB Times.More at Yibada
France, the US, Singapore, Switzerland, the UK and Italy are all ahead of Australia, which has dropped from third to seventh place, falling out of the top three where it had been for three years.
Hurun Report chairman Rupert Hoogewerf told Fairfax Media that Australia has done "amazingly well" for Chinese tourists but it is now being overtaken in the luxury field.
"Ten years ago it was the preferred destination for Chinese tourists, full stop. But what's happened, as other countries have come up (such as the US and Switzerland), Australia has dropped down the list for luxury travel," said the Shanghai-based Mr Hoogewerf.
"I don't want to be slated by your tourist authorities, but my overall take is that I don't think the Australian tourist industry in general has put much effort into the luxury consumer. I have not seen any events or media (advertising and marketing) from Australia that is targeting the luxury consumer. Basically they have coasted very nicely. That is my personal opinion. It may not mean things are not happening, but they are on such a low-key profile compared to Singapore, which is all over China and targeting the top end spenders.
"Australia has got the product, but they are shy to shout it from the rooftop."More in the Brisbane Times.
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| English: Orthographic map of the Australasian part of Oceania: Australia, New Guinea, Island Melanesia, and New Zealand, but excluding the Maluccas. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
