Why China’s trade war with the EU will be limited – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The temperature of the trade relations between China and the EU has been going up, but business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, does not expect it will be an all-out trade war, he tells CNBC. Rein expects China’s response to be “measured” as it seeks closer economic relations with Europe amid intensifying tensions with the U.S., he says.

CNBC:

Beijing will avoid escalation of its dispute with the European Union over tariffs on its electric vehicles, industry watchers said, a day after China again approached the World Trade Organization for resolution.

China’s commerce ministry said Monday that it had filed an additional appeal with the WTO over the EU’s tariffs on its EVs, as bilateral talks have yet to lead to a breakthrough.

The move is “a warning shot against Europe to show that it [China] is strong but won’t go too far,” Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research told CNBC, who expects China’s response to be “measured” as it seeks closer economic relations with Europe amid intensifying tensions with the U.S.

Since the tariffs came into effect last Wednesday, both sides have explored the possibility of setting minimum price commitments from Chinese car producers, as an alternative to the tariffs. The EU reportedly accounted for more than 40% of Chinese EV exports in 2023.

More at CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request’ form.

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Rich Chinese desperately roaming around in Europe and the Middle East – Mark Schaub

 

London-based China veteran Mark Schaub summarizes in his China Chit-chat newsletter the meetings his law firm had with 24 Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) from China over the last three months of 2023. They were checking out opportunities in Europe and the Middle East, partly because their offspring was not really interested in joining their China business. They would look for lessons from their European counterparts but failed because of the differences between Chinese and Europeans, and because the concept of paying for professional legal advice did not yet take root among the Chinese visitors.

Mark Schaub:

All were consigned to or possibly happy to continue to live in China as their primary base. Europe and the Middle East are nice to visit but if you are in your 50s or 60s there is no place like home. Also most had the problem that they felt they had to continue to run the family business. Their children had studied around the world at elite institutions but seem unlikely that many would follow in their parent’s footsteps to run the whole shebang. One takeaway from the recent meeting was that Chinese private companies will need to recruit professional managers to run their family-owned businesses even more than is the case for European or USA counterparts – the kids seem to have little interest in running the family business. In some cases, one child was working in the business in China, but the others were living outside China.

Interestingly, almost everyone we met was highly motivated to do … something! But it seemed that they did not have a network in Europe or the Middle East or even know who to trust or how to go about things.

The greatest single motivation for almost everyone (at least stated) was their children’s future. All had educated their children in an Anglo-Saxon nation (either UK, Australia or USA). USA seemed to be less interesting due to both geo-political concerns but also the possibility of being shot.

It was interesting how multi-billionaires were desperate to get their offspring into an internship with an investment bank. One would think such people would have the network or connections to make this happen with a click of their fingers. You would think so, but you would be wrong.

Much more entertaining observations in the China Chit-chat newsletter.

Mark Schaub is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why China’s livestreamers focus on Europe and the US – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Live streaming is a solid marketing tool in China, but some of the live streamers focus now on TikTok for Europe and the US. Business analyst Shaun Rein explains to AP why that shift is happening.

AP:

Many Chinese hosts on TikTok view the U.S. as an emerging market that has yet to be saturated with livestreaming hosts

“There’s more opportunity for growth to target America because the competition is so fierce in China,” said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai. “Livestreaming in the U.S. is at a beginning starting point. There’s more opportunity to grab market share.”

Rein also said Chinese merchants can often price items higher in the U.S. compared to in China, where product margins are often razor-thin.

Chinese livestreaming hosts try various tactics to stand out and build a loyal customer base. For some, it’s personalized customer service, while others use quirky catchphrases and concoct flamboyant online personalities to keep their customers entertained.

More at AP.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more marketing experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list. 

How to use China’s startup experience in Africa – William Bao Bean

 

William Bao Bean

Serial startup investor William Bao Bean, general partner of SOSV in Shanghai, started in 2021 to invest in his first startup ventures in Africa. In Disrupt-Africa he explains how his experience in China helps him to make his first investments in Africa.

Disrupt-Africa:

Heading up SOSV’s efforts in Africa is general partner William Bao Bean, who has previous VC experience with SingTel Innov8 Ventures and Softbank China & India Holdings, having been a research analyst previously. He says the firm backed its first eight African startups in 2021, including MarketForce and Treepz, and makes comparisons between what is happening on the continent now and what he has seen in Asia over the last few years.

“Africa shares a lot of similarities with other mobile-first markets such as India, Southeast Asia and China, where I have been investing for two decades – 300 million in Africa will get online for the first time using a smartphone, having leapfrogged the use of PCs entirely,” he said.

“The availability of low-cost smartphones, easy access to the internet, and ubiquitous digital payments make Africa a fertile ground for breakthrough technology startups.”

That said, customer acquisition is still a pain for early-stage startups, he said.

“Under the stranglehold of Facebook and Google, companies are forced to spend venture capital money on ads, effectively selling equity to acquire customers,” Bean said.

To address this, he founded SOSV MOX, an SOSV programme that invests in mobile-first, mobile-only startups, and helps them acquire users through partnership models instead of advertising.

“We have over 100 million daily active users in our internet portfolio as of August 2021. Any African tech startup backed by SOSV can take advantage of this ecosystem,” said Bean.

SOSV’s approach may be quite different, but it seems to work. Among its investments globally are crypto-product trading platform BitMEX, the first unicorn to go through an accelerator programme in Asia, and AI English pronunciation assistant ELSA, the first investment in Asia by Google’s AI venture arm Gradient Ventures. Its limited partners are corporates, financial institutions, family offices, and high-net worth individuals from around the world, including Credit Suisse, Tiedemann Advisors, Davy Group, Nan Fung Group, ZX Ventures, HP Ventures and Sumitomo Corp. Its fourth fund raised a whopping US$277 million.

“We’re interested in startups in all stages, focusing on software internet companies that are providing scalable solutions for e-commerce, education, fintech, SaaS and media,” said Bean.

“We’re committed to leveling the field for the best teams around the world: we are bullish on Southeast Asia, South Asia, MENA-Pakistan, Eastern Europe and Africa.”

More in Disrupt Africa.

William Bao Bean is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How China-US relations keep on deteriorating over the decades – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaiser Kuo (right)

China watcher Kaiser Kuo describes at the Varn Vlog how US-China relations went downhill since the 2008 financial crisis, and how that did not improve after President Joe Biden took over from Donald Trump. Also: how the Red Deal in China is changing domestic relations in China.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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How European brands use China’s live-streaming – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok discusses the successes and failures of European brands in the fast-moving live-streaming scene in China. Some have been pretty successful, but certainly, not all, she says at the China EU.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more branding experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Ashley Dudarenok

The clip can be downloaded here

How London lost the Tiktok HQ – Matthew Brennan

 

Matthew Brennan

For a while, London was in the running to get the Tiktok international headquarters, but under the Tiktok-Oracle deal the UK’s capital seems to have lost that opportunity, says China internet watcher Matthew Brennan to CNBC. That seems another setback for the UK now the country is already suffering under the corona crisis and Brexit.

CNBC:

Less than a month ago, there was talk of putting TikTok’s international headquarters in London, but that looks increasingly unlikely.

“Assuming the Oracle/Walmart deal goes through, then the HQ for TikTok Global for sure is in the States,” said Matthew Brennan, a social media analyst based in China.

TikTok has offices in Paris, Berlin, and Dublin, but London is TikTok’s biggest hub in Europe by some margin.

“For London to be the HQ of a company like TikTok would have been a coup for the city, but alas it seems not to be,” Brennan told CNBC, adding that it would have greatly raised the prestige of London in terms of attracting international tech talent.

More at CNBC.

Matthew Brennan is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the ongoing trade war between China and the US? Do check out this list.

China's post-corona problem: their customers are in trouble - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

China might be opening up slowly after its coronavirus crisis, but the problems are not over, warns super investor Jim Rogers at Platts, as most of their international customers are just at the start of their economic downturn.

Jim Rogers at Platts:

One of the biggest challenges for China as it emerges from the crisis will be their customers. China is one of the largest trading nations in the world. Now Europe is in trouble. Japan is in trouble. America is in trouble. Yes, Japan is opening up. China is opening up again, but their customers are in trouble. So the biggest challenge for China now is to find customers for their factories, for their companies, for everybody. That’s everybody’s problem, by the way.
Are there any other bright spots?
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. China’s opening up and many other countries are already opening up. People in Sweden got sick – they are no worse off than other people health-wise but their economy has not suffered as badly. So it seems to me that one lesson from this is that, nobody wants to die. Nobody wants to get sick. But if you just look around what’s happening in the world, closing off does not seem to be the best solution. But we’ll know. We’ll know in a year or two.

More at Platts.

Jim Rogers is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (virtual) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis? Do check out this list.

Making sense out of the Covid-19 information explosion - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Renowned economist Arthur Kroeber, author of the bestseller China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, dives into the information explosion after the Covid-19 virus did hit China. Much information is available, but most is of low quality, he argues, and here he does a reality check of what we can say at this stage in April, including Europe, the US and their relations with China.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the post-corona crisis at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

China can deal with criticism better - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

China has been sending corona aid to many European countries, but got under fire because of the quality of the medical gear. Political analyst Shirley Ze Yu says China could have dealt with its critics in a better way, she says at Al Jazeera. 

Al Jazeera:

According to Shirley Ze Yu, a political economist and Asia fellow at the Ash Center in Harvard Kennedy School, China should be more receptive, and less defensive, to criticism.
She said instead of "refuting" allegations of European nations, China should "investigate domestic medical device manufacturers, and eradicate substandard or un-licenced production capacity within the country".
China has built itself into the "world's factory" over the past three decades, she added, saying it would be challenging for any other country to match its manufacturing efficiency.
"China should use the occasion to clean out any speculative business activity that not only puts human lives, but China's global manufacturing reputation at stake.
"At the end of the global pandemic, not only world leaders, but all people all around the world will form a very personal opinion about China.
"China needs to understand that leadership is ... not about just helping 'friends' and allies, but all under suffering."

More at Al Jazeera.

Shirley Ze Yu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request.

Are you looking for more political analysts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

The West has not yet started to fight the coronavirus - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

Super investor Jim Rogers discusses the monetarian measures by Western central banks, while in China their colleagues have not lowered interest rates to fight the effects of the coronavirus. In Europe and the US they have not even started to fight the virus and we have to see how that works out, he tells at CGTN. 

CGTN:

More central banks have cut benchmark interest rates to cushion economies from an outbreak fallout, including the U.S. Federal Reserve which cut rates to near zero on March 15. But China's People's Bank of China (PBOC) held rates steady.
Jim Rogers, renowned international investor who praised the Chinese central bank for doing a better job than the western central banks, said that the "interest rate going to zero is not going to cure the virus and the economy."
As the U.S. and Europe are now hit hard by the virus, "we are going to have to wait until they put a lot of quarantines and tight measures to slow down the virus, whether it will take weeks or months, and then maybe they can start to loose up and do business again," Rogers said.

More at CGTN.

Jim Rogers is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.   

China cannot save the rest of the world from the coronavirus - Howard French

Howard French

Countries in Europe, Africa and other parts of the world have turned to China to seek for help in their struggle against the coronavirus, as the European Union and the US are failing to offer assistance. But China expert Howard French wonders at the Intercept whether China can face up to this new challenge.

The Intercept:

Howard French, journalist and author of “Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power,” cast doubt on China’s ability to save the day.
“If this becomes generalized, I have a very hard time imagining China has on hand, or even has the ability to crank up, production of quantities of ventilators sufficient to address the urgent care needs of large numbers of people like this in many, many countries all at once,” he said.

More at the Intercept.

Howard French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts to deal with your China questions? Do check out this list.  

The West squandered time on the coronavirus bought by China - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

The West could have known about the dangers of the corona virus when China started to fight it. But the West preferred to watch on, in stead of jumping into action, writes Beijing-based journalist Ian Johnson in an opinion piece in the New York Times.

Ian Johnson:

The attitude toward the coronavirus outbreak in the United States and much of Europe has been bizarrely reactive, if not outright passive — or that the governments in those regions have let pass their best chance to contain the virus’s spread. Having seen a kind of initial denial play out already in China, I feel a sense of déjà vu. But while China had to contend with a nasty, sudden surprise, governments in the West have been on notice for weeks.

It’s as if China’s experience hadn’t given Western countries a warning of the perils of inaction. Instead, many governments seem to have imitated some of the worst measures China put in place, while often turning a blind eye to the best of them, or its successes.

Outsiders seem to want to view China’s experiences as uniquely its own. I imagine there are many reasons for this, including the comforting idea that China is far away and an epidemic over there surely couldn’t really spread so far and so fast over here. More than anything, though, I think that outsiders, especially in the West, fixate on China’s authoritarian political system, and that makes them discount the possible value and relevance of its decisions to them.

More in the New York Times.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on managing your China risk? Do check out this list.  

Preparing the life after the corona crisis

President Xi Jinping visits Wuhan

China and South Korea might be starting to resume their economies, the rest of the world is getting further into lock-down mode. After Italy, the rest of Europe and the United States are only at the beginning of the corona virus pandemic. And for sure nobody in those countries is in de mood to prepare for a life after the current crisis.

At the China Speakers Bureau, we do start to look ahead, also as more events are cancelled and international flights still seem in a unstoppable free fall. But one thing is sure: even when timing is unclear, this crisis will be disappearing in the months to come, even when experts already predict a second wave of patients after the summer. In our line of business the average lead time between inquiries for speaker' assignments and execution is on average three months, and we do not want to start for resumption of our business until the pandemic has officially stopped.

Most of our speakers have been silent on the corona crisis, as it is still unfolding, and making sense for the future international trade relations has been hard. But when business is resuming, more than ever a solid advice seems to be needed. 

This week we will start to publish against stories from our speakers, so you can have an idea in what direction their thoughts are going, and where they might fit into your future plans.  We remain at our posts, and look forward to exchanging thoughts. Do get in touch here.

The corona crisis: too little, too late

 Dutch PM Mark Rutte (left)
 after he announced handshakes would be off-limits.

The medical magazine The Lancet was one of the first Western media to point out the rest of the world could learn from the way China had dealt with the corona crisis. The severe lock-down of Wuhan and Hubei province, and the extended deployment of medics from the rest of China, was then still seen as too draconian to be used on other parts of the world.

Now Italy is in a lock-down and medical care in Northern parts are in crisis, while the rest of Europe looks surprised. "They are in a crisis," said a shaken Dutch doctor on Dutch TV last night, after he made a phone call to a colleague in Milan to ask how they were doing. Displaying confidence in your own capabilities sometimes becomes a handicap.

Virologists in China now admit Wuhan was too late to take their drastic measure and would have saved halved the number of corona patients and related deaths if they had locked down the city five days earlier. But despite those experiences in China, the rest of the world is complacent about the arrival of the virus and resist measures that would stop the virus from spreading.

"Do not shake hands," is the most drastic solution of the rest of Europe, while there is no sign medics of the rest of Europe are rushing to help Italy to contain the current crisis.  It might be too little, too late. Learning from China could have been a good idea.

Italy: the new Wuhan in the coronavirus crisis

China, with the exception of Hubei province, might be getting back to normal, the rest of the world is still bracing for a further outbreak of the coronavirus. Northern Italy shows remarkable similarities with the early weeks of the crisis in Wuhan: cramped medical facilities, expanding quarantine measure to stop the spread of the virus, and much uncertainty in countries and regions that still try to control the crisis. In China numbers of new patients are dropping, so - unless you might distrust those figures - its heavy-handed approach seems to be working at this list. But global stress on international economic relations seem far from over.

With all the justified criticism on the way China dealt the with coronavirus in the early weeks, the country did make some right choices later in the crisis as containment of the health issues was more important than keeping up the economy. More surprising it is that countries with a more developed health care system like Italy seem utterly unprepared for a major outbreak of the virus. Even a very solid country like Switzerland sees the number of coronavirus patients going up fast. Other European countries and the US seem to be bracing for the march of the coronavirus and still have to prove they can follow the lead of China, who was able to limit the major outbreak to one province. We did get some messages from some of our speakers who suggest their expertise in this field could generate some demand from clients outside China, but to be honest, those insights might be too late for countries and companies who have not yet been taking precautions for a major outbreak of the virus in their region or industry. And while the delayed containers from China have started their journey to the rest of the world, it is still unclear what situation they might meet at the receiving end of their ride. Airline companies seem to have no plan to resume cancelled flights, as demand is still very low.

For those we are preparing for a life after the crisis, we are happy to share our insights for your event, conference or company meeting.
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Slow recovery in China, but expanding global coronavirus mayhem

Tenerife

The China government is trying to push positive news in the way it handles the coronavirus crisis, but the economic fallout is only shaping up as the panic moves to other parts of the world. Airlines, shipping lines and other logistics and hospitality providers are maintaining the reduction on services, as demand is not yet picking up. Some logistic providers contemplate resuming services only in June, although they do not wish to confirm that less-favorable scenario.

Europe has become the latest victim of the coronavirus panic, and the number of patients rises, while numbers in the Americas are still low, but expected to go up too. That means that even when containerships are picking up cargo in China again soon, there might be limited capacity to unload them in the rest of the world.

The policy at the China Speakers Bureau is to advise against planning major events at this stage in Asia and Europe, but most clients have delayed or cancelled already. The option of relocating events becomes also unattractive, as major economic centers like Norther Italy, France, South Korea, Japan and other countries suffer from the coronavirus panic. Not only our speakers have problems in moving around in the world, event organizers have a hard time too to get international audiences together.

Containing the virus and its effects, including a reduction of the spread of the virus when Spring kicks in are still part of the optimistic scenarios. But those scenarios are not strong enough to support planning major events that require larger amount of people to come together. We do see some online speeches taking off, but that is only a very limited number.

Are you interested in discussing your plans and pick our brains on the future developments: do not hesitate to get in touch.

Governments cannot stop business even if they want to - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean, partner at SOSV managing director at the Shanghai-based Chinaccelerator, discusses the investment climate in the US, China and Europe at the F50 Global Capital Summit 2019 Fall.  He does not fear the Trump administration, he says, "governments cannot stop businesses even if they want to," he adds.

William Bao Bean is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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China trade, investments to Eastern Europe still lagging - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

Eyes were on Sofia, Bulgaria, last week, as China's prime minister Li Keqiang tries to improve relations with Eastern Europe. Economist Sara Hsu puts Li's efforts into perspective as both trade and investments between China and Eastern Europe have been stagnant, compared to other countries in the One-Belt, One-Road initiative, she tells at CGTN. Also: the contagious relations with the EU.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request.

Are you looking for more experts on China's investment program? Do check out this list.

Europe lags behind China digitally - Mark Greeven

Mark Greeven

China is way ahead of Europe when it comes to its digital transformation, says Zhejiang University professor Mark Greeven, author of Business Ecosystems in China: Alibaba and Competing Baidu, Tencent, Xiaomi and LeEco to the NRC. Europe is way over-regulated compared to China, he says, and companies get in China much more leeway to experiment.

Mark Greeven:

China is more innovative than most people think. Europe is over-regulated while China is one large experimentation group for new companies, technologies and innovations. One of those areas of interest is digital technology, in particular digital payment. Despite – or because? – a centrally led economy, entrepreneurs are the digital innovators. 

We have seen nothing yet: Malong Tech’s artificial intelligence, Lens Technology’s leading thin glass, Mobike’s bike sharing, Hikvision’s global market leadership in security technology and Zongmu Tech’s technology for autonomous driving. The list is long and expanding.

More in the NRC. (in Dutch).

Mark Greeven is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on China's digital transition at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.