How luxury brands failed to follow China’s consumers back home – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

In the past, China’s consumers focused often on foreign luxury brands, but those days are over. Unfortunately, most brands failed to follow that cue from their buyers in China, although the situation is improving, says Shanghai-based branding expert Ben Cavender in Jing Daily.

Jing Daily:

Back when Hermès announced it was launching a Chinese luxury brand in 2010, many scoffed. How could China produce a contemporary luxury brand? Fast forward to today and that possibility is becoming a reality. But, as COVID-19 continues to keep borders shut, why aren’t more Western companies eyeing local Chinese market leaders for a strategic route in, and where are the big success stories?

Aside from the notoriously slow burn of luxury investments requiring especially long pockets, past examples have often not been sufficiently localized. Qeelin, Shang Xia, or even Shanghai Tang, are brands that could have done quite well according to Shanghai-based Ben Cavender, managing director of China Market Research Group, but were not positioned and supported in a way that truly allowed them to be successful.“The challenge with these examples is you have a domestic brand that’s taken foreign investment but has then been given a foreign lens to look at the market… So the products appeal to a luxury consumer sitting in the West,” he explained.

Naturally, if you are a Chinese brand selling to Chinese consumers there needs to be a reorientation on what your story and products should be, which Cavender thinks is often mismatched. Over the last number of years, this “mismatch” has been better served through partnerships with young Chinese designer brands as a way to test the water: Chenpeng, 8on8, and Feng Chen Wang have all collaborated with Western names.

More in the Jing Daily.

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Managing data: key for the future of tech firms – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

China’s government is tightening the strings for tech companies, especially when it comes to data management, says business analyst Ben Cavender at RTHK. “I think you’re going to see companies like this that really do peddle in data come under a lot more scrutiny going forward,” he said.

RTHK:

Regulators have ordered the country’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Didi, to be removed from app stores and accused it of violating rules on the use of personal data.
It comes a week after Didi raised billions of dollars when its shares were listed on the New York stock exchange for the first time.
“I think there’s potentially some subtext here which is basically saying ‘if you’re going to be a big tech company’ and you want to (do an) IPO, you’d better be doing it on the mainland'”, Ben Cavender, the principal at China Market Research Group, told RTHK’s MoneyTalk programme.
Cavender said he believed the government wanted “to tighten up its access to data that’s being collected while at the same time sort of trying to codify a little bit better what kind of data practices are actually OK in China”.
He added that the government is sending a message that it wanted more control over money flows.
He said the days of China initial public offerings (IPOs) being a sure thing were over for investors, and described the development as worrisome.
Cavender also said there was increased pressure “about this idea of consumer rights and what data actually is being collected.
“So I think you’re going to see companies like this that really do peddle in data come under a lot more scrutiny going forward,” he said.

More at RTHK.

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How China uses Didi-crackdown to discourage US IPO’s – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Just a week after Didi’s massive IPO at the US stock market, the company faces a crackdown by China’s authorities. Business analyst Ben Cavender sees a hit to other Chinese firms, contemplating a US IPO: go to one of China’s stock markets to avoid problems, he tells at RTHK.

RTHK:

Regulators have ordered the country’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Didi, to be removed from app stores and accused it of violating rules on the use of personal data.

It comes a week after Didi raised billions of dollars when its shares were listed on the New York stock exchange for the first time.

“I think there’s potentially some subtext here which is basically saying ‘if you’re going to be a big tech company’ and you want to (do an) IPO, you’d better be doing it on the mainland'”, Ben Cavender, the principal at China Market Research Group, told RTHK’s MoneyTalk programme.

Cavender said he believed the government wanted “to tighten up its access to data that’s being collected while at the same time sort of trying to codify a little bit better what kind of data practices are actually OK in China”.

He added that the government is sending a message that it wanted more control over money flows.

He said the days of China initial public offerings (IPOs) being a sure thing were over for investors, and described the development as worrisome.

Cavender also said there was increased pressure “about this idea of consumer rights and what data actually is being collected.

“So I think you’re going to see companies like this that really do peddle in data come under a lot more scrutiny going forward,” he said.

China’s tech giants have in recent months been swept up in a regulatory crackdown — hitting companies ranging from Alibaba to Meituan — by government authorities fearful of their supersized influence on consumers.

More at RTHK.

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The Tencent 4.4b US$ investment is a good deal for Wanda Commercial – Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Real estate giant Wanda Commercial got a US$4.4 billion investment from Tencent, a major tech player. A move that is very smart for Wanda, says business analyst Ben Cavender, as it wants to get ready for a now successful IPO in Shanghai, according to Reuters.

Reuters:

The 34 billion yuan deal for a 14 percent stake in Wanda Commercial could also help the unit get back on track with a plan to relist in Shanghai after a bold and ultimately expensive decision to withdraw from the Hong Kong exchange in 2016.

“From Wanda’s perspective it seems a good deal. They’ve overextended with expansions and acquisitions over the last couple of years,” said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based principal at China Market Research Group, adding that Wanda Commercial had now become a more “attractive mainland IPO candidate”.

The stake will be bought from existing investors who had been part of the $4.4 billion buyout fund created for Wanda Commercial’s delisting in 2016. Those investors had been promised up to 12 percent annual interest if it failed to relist in Shanghai within two years.

The Shanghai IPO has, however, been held up by mainland regulatory measures to tighten liquidity in the real estate sector. Wanda said in a statement that with its new investors it was looking to take the unit public “as soon as possible”.

The Tencent-led group includes major retailer Suning Commerce Group 002024.SZ, e-commerce firm JD.com Inc JD.O and rival developer Sunac China 1918.HK, which bought some of Wanda’s theme park assets last year.

“The tech companies are seen as the darlings of China’s emergence as a global superpower. So, reputation-wise I think this is a good move for Wanda,” Cavender said.

More in Reuters.

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How Moutai passed even Coca-Cola in market cap – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Moutai has been a runaway success, started as the drink for China’s elite but now conquering the market for the common people too, and it gains market value, even passing Coca-Cola. Marketing analyst Ben Cavender looks at CNN at the successful liquor as it prepares for another highlight as Chinese New Year is around the corner.

CNN:

Even amid a global pandemic, Kweichow Moutai, the company that makes the eponymous liquor, had a banner year: its stock surged around 70% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2020. The company, which is part state-owned and part publicly-traded, is China’s most valuable firm outside of technology — worth more than the country’s four biggest banks. Globally, its market cap has not only surpassed all other alcohol distillers like Diageo and Constellation Brands, but also Coca-Cola, which had long held the crown as the world’s largest beverage maker by market cap. Valued at 2.7 trillion yuan, or $421 billion Kweichow Moutai is worth more than Toyota, Nike and Disney, too.

“Anytime they have any stock [of the product] available, it’s going to be gone almost instantly,” said Ben Cavender, the Shanghai-based managing director of China Market Research Group. “You’ll see people clamoring [for it].”

Apart from the Chinese diaspora, however, Moutai is still virtually unknown overseas. Almost all — about 97% — of its sales come from China alone, according to its financial reports…

Being part of so many major public events in China “really set the brand in the national consciousness,” said Cavender, who likened it to another giant beverage maker, Coca-Cola, in that regard.

“That’s the same reason why Coke has actually done so well from a marketing perspective. If you look at the way they’ve done their advertising over the past 50 years, they’re at pretty much every big event. You see Coke at when the Berlin Wall comes down. You see Coke commercials at Christmas. I think Moutai is that brand for China, and so I think that part explains why it’s so popular.”..

Moutai has found a way to be “approachable for a lot of regular consumers, at least for special occasions,” while at the same time also offering collectors’ items that reach the ultra-rich, said Cavender.

“That’s something that makes Moutai, I think, different, from a lot of the international beverage brands,” he said.

It’s also been a tremendous advantage during an economically tough year: wealthy consumers who are spending less on travel may splurge more on liquor, Cavender added.

More at CNN.

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China managed the corona crisis pretty well – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

The corona crisis might still be ravaging economies worldwide, 2020 looks to end pretty well for China, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender in the state-owned China Daily. “While there are still underlying weak spots in the economy that have been slower to recover, the overall story is very positive,” adds Cavender.

China Daily:

The world’s second-largest economy saw growth of 4.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with 3.2 percent in the second quarter, according to data released on Oct 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The nation’s GDP growth reached 0.7 percent over the first three quarters of 2020, after the economy contracted by 6.8 percent from January to March due to the national lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ben Cavender, managing director at China Market Research Group, said, “It’s clear that China has managed a remarkable recovery and that policymakers have done a good job of navigating a very uncertain economic climate.

“China’s strong economy should be seen as a good thing right now, as China is such an important export market for so many other countries,” Cavender said. “The fact that China is still buying and hasn’t seen an economic collapse is important for the world, as China right now is a lifeline for a lot of multinational businesses that have seen severe reductions in sales in their home markets.”

He added that “while there are still underlying weak spots in the economy that have been slower to recover, the overall story is very positive, and China will come out of 2020 in a very strong position economically”…

Cavender of China Market Research Group said that compared with most other countries that have either not been strict enough in enforcing policy or have had difficulty in controlling the outbreak, the key to China’s success is its “ability to put in place a coordinated, aggressive early response, coupled with building out robust systems for contact tracing as well as identifying inbound cases coming from returning travelers entering the country”.

More at the China Daily.

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What might a Trump win mean for the trade war – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Trump’s trade war against China has already been put in a backseat during the Covid-19 crisis, and also when US president Trump wins the upcoming elections, the state of the economy might not allow him to uphold the current tariffs, says business analyst Ben Cavender to the Jing Daily.

Jing Daily:

According to Ben Cavender, the managing director at China Market Research Group, the trade war has taken a backseat to COVID-19 and the economy over the last couple of months. “If Trump wins, there will be a lot of discussion about the general economy, so there might not be the bandwidth to keep the tariffs up. The focus will be more on how to stabilize things in the US economy.”…

“I think also we are probably looking at a scenario where he tries to de-escalate on the tariffs front,” Cavender said, adding, “calling things “a win,” even if nothing really changes.

“It’s unlikely we’ll see more aggressive tariffs — particularly as the dollar is weakening right now. So this should, in theory, make US exports more appealing to overseas buyers more — so this adds to his story of resetting the trade balance.’”

Should Trump be re-elected, a continuation of taxes on foreign luxury goods could have a positive impact on fashion companies in the US — although those benefits are more likely to be felt by bigger over small to medium-sized businesses. Smaller companies should also be further hampered by the recent announcement that Trump is delaying additional Coronavirus stimulus packages.

As Cavender explained, Trump has always favored big corporations, and this is unlikely to change. “With Trump, you’re likely to see large amounts of interest directed to corporations, and if you have the connections, you’ll have more access to unrestricted cash to use any way you want,” Cavender explained…

The fashion industry is now undergoing a Darwinian-style overhaul, and not all labels will survive, regardless of the election outcome. But luxury and China are intrinsically intertwined, and China’s consumers have been pivotal in this recovery. As far back as March, they turned to revenge spending in China’s stores. On International Women’s Day (March 8), brands on Tmall experienced double-digit sales growth, as compared to last year.

Cavender confirmed that labels are reliant on favorable relations with China now more than ever, and the sales numbers bear that out. He added: “the brands doing well are the ones that have been able to connect with Chinese consumers digitally during the crisis.” And, if the US continues its tariffs on European luxury, local brands are unlikely to ever replace those sales among domestic consumers.

Perhaps jewelry might benefit, as consumers could swap in a national brand, said Ortelli. But in reality, that is unlikely, he added: “Due to the unique attachment consumers have to their preferred labels. Honestly, in luxury, the consumer usually has brand loyalty and is not looking for an alternative.”

More in the Jing Daily.

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How China cleaned up its IP infringements – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

China was a copy-cat country for long, but has moved away from its IP infringements, says business consultant Ben Cavender. Innovation is a keyword in its development, and most IP infringement cases in court are between Chinese companies, he adds.

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Taste defines success of plant-based meat – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Plant-based meat producers, including US-based Beyond Meat, are entering the competitive China market. Their success depends on whether their products can convince the China consumers, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender at Reuters.

Reuters:

Beijing-based startup Zhenmeat, whose products include plant-based meatballs, beef patty, steak, pork loin, crayfish and dumplings, is one of many small Chinese companies entering the market. Its “meatballs” are now available on a trial basis at a Beijing store of Chinese hot-pot chain Hope Tree.

“Now after COVID-19 consumers are more concerned about health and restaurant brands are responding to this,” Zhenmeat founder and CEO Vince Lu told Reuters in an interview, adding that sales were “up considerably” since June.

Many curious customers at the Beijing Hope Tree restaurant said the meatballs – made from a base of pea and soy protein – tasted like tofu.

“Actually you can tell that it isn’t meat but the feel of it in your mouth is very similar to beef. And I guess that plant-based meat is a little healthier than beef,” said Audrey Jiang, 30.

China Market Research Group Director Ben Cavender said the key to the future of the plant-based meat market was the taste.

“When we interview consumers the vast majority say they’re open to trying these products once,” he said.

“But the big question is how do they like it? Do they see how they can fit it into their diet on daily basis, whether that’s cooking at home or at restaurants? But if they do like it they’ll keep buying.”

More at Reuters.

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China tech firms turn away from the US – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

The tug of war between China and the US on how the possible US ban of Tiktok makes China’s entrepreneurs – especially those in tech – to rethink its involvement in the American market, says business analyst Ben Cavender to Jing Travel.

Jing Travel:

If it happens, the TikTok ban would likely cool the ambitions of Chinese companies looking to launch or expand operations in the U.S.

“This is one more sign the U.S. is a hostile business environment, especially in the tech space,” says Ben Cavender, Managing Director at China Market Research Group. “There’s a feeling amongst Chinese executives that the U.S. isn’t worth the bother. Better to focus on growth at home and winning high potential markets lacking strong domestic players. In Southeast Asia, for example.”

More in Jing Travel.

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China's Anta takes on Nike and Adidas - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

China's Anta bought in 2009 the Italian sports shoe brand Fila for China and plans to take on Nike and Adidas during the 2022 Olympic Winter Games in Beijing. Branding expert Ben Cavender sees Li-Ning and other domestic brands as the first hurdle to take before Anta can really compete globally, he says in the Fair Observer. 

The Fair Observer:

“To some extent, it [FILA] is still seen as a cheaper alternative to Adidas and Nike, but Anta has been working hard to create more of an image of a first-choice brand and has been fairly aggressive with its marketing,” says Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group. “It has also used brands like FILA to try and move up-market and into streetwear.” Financially, the latter strategy seems to be successful...
But the first obstacle to Anta’s global ambitions may not be Adidas and Nike but other Chinese brands, particularly Li-Ning, named after the athlete who became a gymnast star at the 1984 summer Olympics in Los Angeles...
“Li-Ning is an interesting case because going back five years, Li-Ning overexpanded its retail footprint in China and tried too hard to copy Nike,” says Cavender. “The Li-Ning of 2019 is in a much stronger place. It has embraced being a Chinese brand with unique Chinese design characteristics and has been setting the internet on fire with its streetwear.”
He notes how Li-Ning had to scale back and reevaluate before achieving a resurgence. Thanks to those efforts, the company is now booming, with profits in the first half of 2019 nearly tripling. Its rise has been reflected in Li-Ning’s share price, which has risen around 170% since June 2018, compared to just over 50% for Anta...
 Although Anta seems to have positioned itself well, there are still many hurdles ahead to achieve global success. The company is likely to benefit in the run-up to the next Winter Olympics, but it needs to be careful not to repeat the mistakes of Li-Ning and make sure it masters the mainland China market first. “Companies like Nike are effectively marketing organizations that happen to sell shoes, so it is very difficult for an outsider to break into that top position in the market,” says Cavender, noting that it may take some time for Anta to be in a position to compete globally.

More in the Fair Observer.

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Coronavirus will not save the bike-sharing industry - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The bike-sharing industry sees a spike now contingency measures allow more people to hit the road in major cities, but business analist Ben Cavender expects the positive news to be short-lived, he tells Abacus News. "In the longer term, it will still be difficult for the industry to bounce back and grow,” says Cavender.

Abacus News:

The industry is still bruised overall, having suffered a major blow during the epidemic with most people confining themselves at home. The reprieve might not last, either. Some think the recent boost doesn’t mean that users will stick with bike-sharing once things go back to normal.

“We're likely to continue to see a short term bump in use of bike-sharing,” says Ben Cavender, analyst with China Market Research Group. “But longer term, it will still be difficult for the industry to bounce back and grow.” 

Cavender said that when the public health situation stabilizes and returns to normal, consumers will shift back to normal transportation habits. 

China’s bike-share sector saw rapid expansion in 2017 and 2018, when startups crammed Chinese cities with colorful bikes, eventually leading to a wave of bankruptcies and “bike graveyards.”

More at Abacus News.

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Costs for censorship are rising - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Content-providers have been trying to lower costs for the notorious censorship in China, for example by introducing more AI-driven tools. But the government if fearing too much unwanted content if falling through the cracks, asks for tougher censorship, adding dramatically to the costs, says business analyst Ben Cavender to MSN.

MSN:

In January, a government-appointed body released guidelines for short video platforms, requiring them to bulk up censorship and vet all content before it is posted. In November, the government released rules that ban online-video platform operators from using deep-learning to create fake news, an effort to address so-called deepfake technology and disinformation. 

“The government feels that maybe too much unapproved content is sliding through the cracks” and is trying to address that, said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based managing director at China Market Research Group. 

For companies, it may mean rising costs to beef up its content-monitoring operations. “We should expect to see greater investment both in automated solutions as well as in content-management teams,” Mr. Cavender said. 

The government also has toughened its stance on how companies deal with data privacy. Earlier this week, it said some of the country’s biggest tech companies—including Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp.—weren’t sufficiently protecting user data.

More at MSN.

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Single's Day: consumers waited for bargains - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

China's Single's Day broke several records, but that is deceptive. Consumers waited for bargains and delayed purchases till Single's Day, says retail analyst Ben Cavender to Reuters.

Reuters:

“What’s happened is that you’ve had a lot of consumers this year being a little bit more careful about their purchasing because the economy’s slowing down,” said Ben Cavender, managing director of consultancy China Market Research Group. 

“I think this year especially, people were kind of waiting for Singles’ Day and kind of waiting to make some of those medium-sized purchases that they didn’t want to pay full price for.”

More at Reuters.

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Understanding the consumer in China - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Understanding the consumer in China is tough for most foreign companies entering this competitive market, says retail analyst Ben Cavender. There is no escape from shopping here, as retail is fully integrated into daily life. "China is where all the future trends are happening," he says.

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China's consumers hate to go for a premium product - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Competition between Starbucks and Luckin has been heating up, and Luckin seems to focus on a higher segment of the market. But business analyst Ben Cavender warns the company might fall into a sword it helped to create itself, he tells to Reuters.

Reuters:

Luckin CEO Qian Zhiya said the company was on track to break even at a store level at every store during the third quarter because rising scale would it give it more bargaining power to lower input costs. Store level costs exclude marketing expenses. 

Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based principal at China Market Research Group, cautioned that might prove to be a tall order. 

"It's difficult because they have trained consumers to only want to go to the stores when there are big discounts," he said, adding that each store does not attract enough customers to cover cost of operations. 

"Eventually they will probably have to cut non-performing stores and find a way to convince people that they have improved coffee quality along with slightly higher prices."

More in Reuters.

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What happens when China's economy slows down - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The effects of a slowdown in China's economy on foreign companies might vary, on the industry they are working in and on their size, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender to Reuters. Smaller firms might close down, while larger ones try to diversify over time, he adds.

Reuters:

Growth in the stickier foreign direct investment (FDI), however, has been trending lower. Net FDI, as per Nomura estimates, will more than halve this year to $40.3 billion. 

Ben Cavender, Managing Director of consultancy China Market Research Group (CMR), said that although it would take time for big global firms to diversify part of their capacity out of China if the trade war drags on, smaller players will more likely shut their China business. 

“Any time you have government policy frictions like this, it tends to slow down FDI and so I think that’s the reality. The other reality is that the Chinese economy is slowing down, and so is the return on investment,” he said.

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