Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
Journalist and author Ian Johnson discusses his latest book, Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future, at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, on why and how he came to write his book. Questions are asked by Orville Schell is the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society in New York and Glenn Tiffert a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China.
Political analyst Ian Johnson answers some basic questions on the upcoming 5-yearly meeting of the Chinese Communist Party at the website of the Council of Foreign Affairs. Most Polit bureau members will retire, Premier Li Keqiang will prepare for his replacement in March, and secretary-general Xi Jinping will be re-elected for his third term. What will it mean for Xi’s position?
Ian Johnson:
Will a third term make Xi more assertive, particularly in terms of his foreign policy moves?
That is hard to say because he’s already been quite assertive. Domestically, he’s pursued a scorched-earth policy in areas with many minority populations, essentially forcing them to follow Han Chinese cultural practices. He’s also quashed civil society, reined in religious groups, and put limits on nongovernmental organizations. Internationally, he has allowed diplomats to pursue “wolf warrior” policies, which often means speaking extremely bluntly to officials in host countries; presided over a military buildup in the South China Sea; and pushed a more aggressive policy toward Hong Kong and Taiwan.
These policies have created backlash. Almost all wealthy, democratic countries—including the United States, European Union countries, Japan, and South Korea—now view China as a rival and not just an economic competitor. This has led countries to pursue policies to reduce reliance on China. This is a huge change from a little over a decade ago, when China was seen as a potential partner in the existing international order.
Today, China is instead seen as a disruptor—not on the level of Russia, which has invaded neighbors under President Vladimir Putin, but still as a serious challenge to democratic countries. That seismic shift largely took place on Xi’s watch and is almost certain to continue.
Will there be any big policy announcements during the twentieth party congress, such as economic reforms or a lifting of China’s zero-COVID policy?
At China’s top leadership, it was always possible for different political agendas to exist next to each other. But since 2012 next to Xi Jinping – up for his unprecedented third term as CCP party secretary – very few variations in leadership style have been given room, says political analyst Victor Shihat the ABC. The retirement of premier Li Keqiang finalizes Xi’s powerful position, he adds. China’s next premier is likely to be a good friend of Xi, while women and ethnic minorities make little chance.
ABC:
As soon as he came into power within the party in 2012, Xi formed and headed a whole series of groups ranging from economic reforms, to Taiwanese affairs, to national security.
That hasleft Li little autonomy to set his own agenda, according to Associate Professor Victor Shih, from the University of California San Diego.
“The leading groups headed by Xi Jinping have been setting the agenda to a large extent,” Professor Shih said.
“The State Council became kind of an implementation organ instead of a policy-making organ.”…
So what kind of people are more likely to join the Politburo in October?
Professor Shih, who leads the CCP Elite Database, which tracks biographical information of thousands of elite party members, said connections with Xi Jinping would be key when it comes to eligibility for the Politburo.
This could be either through families — descendants of senior communist officials — or pastworking relationships with Xi.
Professor Shih said while there was still a place for officials with an ordinary background like Li to join the State Council next year, key positions would most likelybe held by Xi’s connections.
He also said there would be fewer leadership positions for people coming from a social science background like Li, with more politicians from engineering backgrounds having been promoted during Xi’s reign.
The CCP Elite Database also shows that all current members of Politburo are of Han ethnicity, despite China being made up of 55 other minor ethnic groups.
And China is unlikely to have a female premier any time soon.
Less than 10 per cent of officials serving in the central government are women, according to China Elite Database.
“Even in a lot of Islamic countries, [some of which] discriminate against women, you typically will see a higher ratio. And in Western democracies, it’s like 40 to 60 per cent are women,” Professor Shih said.
Currently, the most powerful female official is Sun Chunlan, who is the second vice-premier overseeing China’s COVID strategy.
She is also the only woman in the current Politburo. There are no women in the Politburo Standing Committee.
Sun had been seen on the frontline of the pandemic in Shanghai and Wuhan, the two cities that went into lockdowns during China’s coronavirus peaks in 2020 and 2022.
“She should be the number one person in the party. But in that political system, she’s not qualified,” Professor Shih said.
Political analyst Victor Shih, author of the recently released bookCoalitions of the Weak, looks – weeks ahead of the 20th Party Congress, at defining moments in the history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the Centre of Geopolitics.
