How China’s financial system works – Victor Shih

Victor Shih

China’s financial system is much tightly controlled by the government compared to what the world is used to, says financial expert Victor Shih at the BBC. China has been spending trillions of US dollars in loans to both the developing and the developed countries, including to the insurer of the CIA’s pension fund, writes the BBC.

The BBC:

“China has a kind of financial system that the world has never seen,” says Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Centre at University of California San Diego. China has the largest banking system in the world – larger than the US, Europe and Japan put together, he adds.

That size, along with the amount of control Beijing exerts over state banks, gives it unique capabilities.

“The government controls interest rates and directs where the credit goes,” Mr Shih says. “This is only possible with very strict capital control, which no other country could have on a sustainable basis.”

Some of the investments in wealthy economies appear to have been made in order to generate a healthy return. Others fall in line with Beijing’s strategic objectives, set out a decade ago in a major government initiative called Made in China 2025.

In it the Chinese authorities outlined a clear plan to dominate 10 cutting-edge industries, like robotics, electric vehicles and semiconductors by this year.

Beijing wanted to fund big investments abroad so key technologies could be brought back to China.

Global alarm at the plan led China to drop public mention of it, but Victor Shih says it “stayed very much alive” as a guiding strategy.

“There are all kinds of plans still being published,” he says, “including an artificial intelligence plan and a smart manufacturing plan. However, the mother of all plans is the 15th five-year plan.”

More at the BBC.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why China’s real estate crisis has not yet been solved – Victor Shih

 

Financial and political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, discusses the current state of China’s real estate and why it has taken so long for China’s leadership to deal with this crisis. The bottoming-out process of the industry is not yet complete, he says at TaiwanPlus.

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What outsiders get wrong on China’s fiscal policies – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Financial analyst  Victor Shih dives into China’s fiscal policies. Most of the country’s expenditure has traditionally been only for a marginal percentage on consumption, but on government investments. So, while consumption has gone down, the way to push the economy ahead is not to encourage consumption, but government spending, he argues. He turns against the current government policy of austerity at local governments; it should move in the opposite direction, he argues at the Asia Society, Northern California chapter.

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How do science and politics relate in China – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

In the US, the tension between science and politics has been raising eyebrows. In China, politicians do invite scientists to listen to their arguments and might follow their suggestions. Still, sometimes political preferences in Beijing prevail, for example, during the Covid crisis, says political analyst Victor Shin, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, in his interview at Dwarkesh Clips.

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China’s hidden debt crisis – Victor Shih

Victor Shih

On the surface, government debt in China appears well-manageable, but that is because the central government pushes its costs to a local level, says financial expert Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, in an interview on Dwarkesh Clips.

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How do discussions in China’s politburo work out – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

While the world is getting used to live sessions from the Oval Office in Washington, DC, few experts know how the Politburo in Beijing is making its policies. Political expert Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, explains in the Dwarkesh Clips how the relations between Xi Jinping, other members of the Politburo, and outside experts work out.

A full session is available here.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at our meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How China has prepared for Trump’s new tariffs – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

The jury is still out on whether Trump’s tariffs on imports from China will hurt the US or China more. But political analyst Victor Shih has seen how China has been anticipating the latest wave of tariffs, he tells CNN. “But China can sustain that (situation) much more so than American politicians can,” he said.

CNN:

In China, a wide swath of suppliers are likely to see their already narrow margins completely erased, with a new wave of efforts to establish factories in other countries set to begin.

The scale of the tariffs could lead to “millions of people becoming unemployed” and a “wave of bankruptcy” across China, according to Victor Shih, director of the University of California San Diego’s 21st Century China Center. Meanwhile, US exports to China could “go close to zero,” he added.

“But China can sustain that (situation) much more so than American politicians can,” he said.

That’s, in part, because China’s ruling Communist Party leaders do not face swift feedback from voters and opinions polls.

“During Covid they shut down the economy (causing) untold employment, suffering – no problem.”…

Beijing in recent weeks has also been talking to countries from Europe to Southeast Asia in a bid to expand trade cooperation – and one up the US by winning over American allies and partners exasperated by the on-again-off-again trade war.

But it’s been bracing for US trade frictions since Trump’s first trade war and his campaign against Chinese tech champion Huawei, which were a wake-up call to Beijing that its economic rise could be derailed if it wasn’t prepared.

“The Chinese government have been preparing for this day for six years – they knew this was a possibility,” said Shih in Caornia, who added that Beijing had supported countries to diversify supply chains and looked to manage some of its domestic economic challenges in preparation, among other efforts.

Today, China is much better placed to weather a broader trade conflict, experts say. Compared with 2018, it’s expanded its trade relations with the rest of the world, reducing the share of US exports from roughly one-fifth of its total to less than 15%.

More at CNN.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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While banning Tiktok might be fair game, it’s not smart domestically in the US – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analyst Victor Shih, author of  Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation and director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy tells at UC San Diego Today. “From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game,” he says.

Victor Shih:

What’s the relationship between TikTok and the Chinese Communist Party?

TikTok is a private company, and it’s now registered offshore from China — but, of course, historically most of its operation has been in China. As of five or six years ago, maybe even a bit longer, the Chinese government has required large, private companies to have branches of the Chinese Communist Party within the company structure.

For the Chinese equivalent of TikTok, Douyin, there’s a party committee in the company. And the parent company, ByteDance, which is located in China, also has a Chinese Communist Party branch. Most of the people in the party committee would not be full-time government officials — they’re just workers or executives who had already belonged to the party. That’s actually a common thing to happen. You will soon be recruited into the party at a university or in the workplace, and a lot of people do it just to advance their careers.

There are certain requirements for joining the party, and the No. 1 requirement is that you have to obey the party no matter what. I think that’s where a lot of U.S. lawmakers and people in the government really have an issue.

More recently, within the past four years, the party has demanded top tech companies to give part of their shares to entities of the Chinese government. So China has sovereign wealth funds. Through that mechanism, the government becomes a minority shareholder of these tech companies, so then it can send members to the management boards of these tech companies, and these board members are full-time Chinese government officials.

How has this relationship between ByteDance and the party played into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s larger goals?

Xi Jinping recognizes the power of social media and the internet in general — not really as something to control people’s minds with, but certainly something to use to sway people’s opinions. He has ordered internet companies in China to work for the party on behalf of the party. It’s very well known that the Chinese counterpart of TikTok is ordered by the Chinese government to convey propaganda to users within China all the time, even if TikTok claims that it doesn’t do that for audiences outside of China.

Xi has also said that he wants users around the world, not just in China, to use Chinese technology. And of course, TikTok has been the most successful case of this, certainly on the software side: it’s used by over a billion users worldwide.

Is there reason for the U.S. to be legitimately concerned about how TikTok might make users’ personal data available to the Chinese government?

I don’t buy the argument that we should be alarmed how the Chinese government can get all this data on users from TikTok — because all the other internet platforms active in the U.S. already sell user data to data brokers, and China can obtain it that way. To be clear, I’m sure TikTok is feeding some data to the Chinese government; I’m just saying that it’s probably not that much worse than what they could do already using all the other sources of data.

The other worry is that TikTok is so powerful, and that it’s used by so many people that the people behind the app can bias the politics within the United States. I think that TikTok does have the potential to do that. But then, compare that with other people who are influencing opinion on social media. You have to ask yourself, “Who has done more damage to the quality of American democracy: Elon Musk or TikTok?”

Is the ban a wise move? How could it affect relations between the two countries?

It’s really difficult to assess because former government officials, sometimes at 21st Century China Center events, will say, “If only you knew what we knew, you would definitely support the ban.” But we don’t know what they know.

One consideration is that the Chinese government has banned pretty much all of our social media and search platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Google.

From a pure competitive technology perspective: I don’t think the ban is optimal, but at least it’s fair game. But of course, TikTok has great currency in the United States: people make a living off of TikTok, so a ban is going to affect them, and as a result, for domestic political reasons it may not be the smartest thing to do.

More at UC San Diego Today.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

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Why Xi Jinping turned against Miao Hua – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China’s President Xi  Jinping turned against his erstwhile handpicked ally Admiral Miao Hua, a member of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). Political analyst Victor Shih explains at CNN this change in Xi’s long-standing struggle against corruption.

CNN:

As the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China heats up, the PLA Navy has also seen a drastic increase in the procurement of warships and other weapons, providing ample opportunities for corruption, said Victor Shih, a political science professor at the University of San Diego.

But there could be another potential reason behind Miao’s downfall, Shih said, for “being too obvious in his attempt to foster a faction in the military.”

Xi has repeatedly warned against the forming of factions in both the party and the military. “Of course, the only person who is allowed to do that is Xi himself,” Shih added.

Miao is seen by some analysts as having recommended multiple associates in the Navy for promotions to key positions, including Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin and Defense Minister Dong Jun.

The announcement of Miao’s investigation came a day after the Financial Times reported that Dong had been placed under investigation for corruption, citing current and former US officials. The Defense Ministry dismissed the report as “sheer fabrication,” and days later, Dong made a public appearance at a security forum…

Miao’s downfall comes less than a year after former defense minister Li Shangfu was removed from the CMC.

The powerful body had six members – all deemed as Xi’s loyalists – serving under the top leader when he began his unprecedented third term two years ago. If Miao is also removed, it would leave two vacant seats.

Shih, the expert on Chinese elite politics, said many dictators, from former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin to Mao, have eventually turned against their own proteges.

“Once all of their real competitors are gone, a dictator can never think to themselves: ‘Oh well, all the threats are gone. I can just relax.’ Because they always think that new threats could emerge, including from people who once were very close to them. This happens over and over again,” he said.

More at CNN.

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China’s state of the economy – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Financial expert Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses today’s state of China’s economy at the Centre for Geopolitics with William Hurst, and how it has developed in the 25-year long collaboration between both. 

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Still unclear what happened to Qin Gang – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

What happened to former foreign minister Qin Gang one year ago is still unclear. After a stellar career, the sudden disappearance of Qin triggered a slew of rumors, including an extramarital affair with a British spy, an affair with Xi Jinping’s daughter, and more speculations. Political analyst Victor Shih tells Politico that China’s leadership is still unsure of how to handle this case.

Politico:

If Qin can prove that he was unaware of his alleged mistress’ rumored spy ties “he may have a case for leniency,” said Victor Shih, an expert in Chinese elite politics and the Ho Miu Lam chair in China and Pacific Relations at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. But the official silence on Qin’s status likely reflects indecision among China’s senior leadership about how to close his case, Shih said.

More views of analysts at Politico. 

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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Analyzing the China-US relations – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analyst Victor Shih breaks down the relations between China, the US, and the rest of the world in a discussion from the Chevron Auditorium in the I-House on “China-US Futures: Pathways to Peaceful Coexistence”. Key takeaways: many problems perceived by American politicians with China are not as bad as they try to let us believe.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China cannot roll over its debts anymore – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Financial expert Victor Shih dives into the 2024 figures at the annual NPC and concludes China cannot roll over debts anymore and finance its budget like it did before. He tells Bloomberg that central state policies have increasingly replaced a market-driven economy.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Manufacturing, not consumption, key for China’s economy – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China will continue to focus on supporting its manufacturing power, instead of changing to household subsidies, says economist Victor Shih, out of line with many other economists who expect support for consumption, as reported by Al Jazeera. Shih added: “There are 1.4 billion people in China, so comprehensive social assistance would be extremely expensive, especially in a deflationary context.”

Al Jazeera:

Analysts expect the National People’s Congress, China’s rubber-stamp parliament, to again set an annual growth target of about 5 percent when it meets in March.

While many economists have exhorted Beijing to stimulate growth through household transfers, Victor Shih, an expert on the Chinese economy at the University of California, San Diego, expects investment-driven growth to continue to hold sway.

“Marxist ideology, which valorises industrial production, remains the fundamental basis for policymaking in Beijing,” Shih told Al Jazeera.

“In all likelihood, the government will continue to subsidise manufacturing. Consumption, by contrast, is viewed as indulgent.”

Shih added: “There are 1.4 billion people in China, so comprehensive social assistance would be extremely expensive, especially in a deflationary context.”

Shih said Beijing could raise household consumption by urging companies to pay higher wages but that “China’s manufacturing edge is partly based on subdued worker income”.

As such, “higher wages would undermine Chinese exports, which is an important source of output”, he said.

“I don’t think the government will shift budgetary priorities in favour of the Chinese people… which will likely result in a period of economic weakness.”

More at Al Jazeera.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China: manoeuvering between local debts and slowing revenue – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Financial expert Victor Shih looks at the dilemma China faces as local debts run out of hand, while revenue is dropping, and consumer confidence is low, at a panel discussion at the Ray School of Management at the UC San Diego.

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The current state of US-China relations – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih (left) at the discussion

China expert Victor Shih, Director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses the current state of US-China relations with Bill Gertz of the Washington Post, covering questions like, “Is China an existential threat or a competitor?” and “Is China trying to replace the US as hegemon?” at PNYX.

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