Is China opening for business again? – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

At the start of his third term China’s president Xi Jinping has been flexing his muscles internationally, while the country also promised to be open for private and foreign business. Ian Johnson, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, tries to make sense of the conflicting messages at the CFR website.

Ian Johnson:

Over the past few months, the Joe Biden administration has limited the export of high-tech chips to China, and made a series of serious allegations against it—to date, without concrete evidence. They include alleging that a Chinese balloon blown off course was a spy balloon, and that China was considering sending weapons to Russia to help it in its war against Ukraine. The United States has also renewed scrutiny into whether COVID-19 could have stemmed from a Chinese laboratory leak.

In this context, Xi and [the new foreign minister ]Qin [Gang]’s rhetoric can be seen as evidence of China’s resolve, even as both sides try to stabilize the relationship. Over the coming weeks, the U.S.-China relationship will be further tested by a visit from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States, and hearings by a congressional committee on China that seems chiefly dedicated publicizing to Chinese problems and failings.

At the same time, Xi and his team sought to show that China is back open for business after years of a highly restrictive lockdown that slowed economic growth.

In talks at the session, Xi said that private entrepreneurs are “one of us,” countering the conventional view of Xi as hostile to private business. He also has a new premier, Li Qiang, who is widely seen as sympathetic to foreign business.

Li epitomizes the tension between the pro-market growth that has made China rich and the emphasis on stability and control that Xi favors. Li was previously the reform-minded party secretary of Shanghai, and a year ago, he also experimented with ending the city’s zero-COVID policy—before an outbreak forced him to reverse course and implement a harsh lockdown.

Xi said during the meetings that there is no contradiction between the two positions, saying “security is the foundation of development, and stability is the precondition for strength and prosperity.”

Speaking at the closing press conference on March 13, however, Li gave a robust defense of private enterprise, promising to “treat companies under all forms of ownership as equals.”

Li’s concrete policies, however, are still unclear.

Much more on the CFR website.

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What to know about China’s new premier Li Qiang – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political analysts Victor Shih looks into the background of Li Qiang, China’s new premier, and his past in the country’s elite for NPR.

NPR:

China’s annual session of parliament ended today. President Xi Jinping secured a third term and stacked the government with allies, including a new premier. But as NPR’s John Ruwitch reports, it’s unclear if Li Qiang’s loyalty is an asset or a liability.

JOHN RUWITCH, BYLINE: The story of Li Qiang’s rise goes back two decades. He was working in his home province of Zhejiang next to Shanghai. Xi Jinping was the provincial Communist Party secretary, the boss. And Li became his chief of staff, a role in which…

VICTOR SHIH: He is the enforcer or go-between the party secretary of the province and all the subordinate units.

RUWITCH: A critical job, says Victor Shih, a specialist in elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego. Xi Jinping was on his way up but fighting factional struggles in Zhejiang. Li stood by his side.

SHIH: At that time, there were sort of two camps in the province, and so Xi Jinping’s trust of Li Qiang might have started in this period of relatively intense conflict.

RUWITCH: That apparent trust grew. Li got promotions and was soon governor of the province. Along the way, he developed a reputation as a champion of private business… But Victor Shih of UC San Diego says there’s still a big lingering question. Which of the 63-year-old Li’s instincts will we see more of?

SHIH: You know, whether it will be his – you know, his own belief in the market, in private entrepreneurship or whether it’s going to be his reflex to always carry out instructions from his patron.

More at NPR.

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Li Qiang: the new man on the block – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

The nomination of Li Qiang as the number two of China’s Communist Party was one of few surprises at the 20th CCP conference last week, says political analyst Victor Shih at CNN. Li Qiang, Shanghai’s party chief, was responsible for the city’s much-discussed two-month corona lock-down.

CNN:

While the lineup revealed Sunday is the top tier of the Communist Party, those selected will then go on to fill top government positions, as appointments are made in the coming months ahead of a key meeting of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature in March.

The new lineup means Xi will also gain greater control over all aspects of the Chinese state, including the economy, which is traditionally the domain of the premier, who heads its State Council.

That position is now expected to be placed in the hands of Shanghai party chief Li Qiang, a long time Xi loyalist who has been appointed to the number-two role in the party, despite the backlash that followed a chaotic two-month Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year.

CNN:

Li’s appointment is one of several “norm-busting” elements of this year’s leadership reshuffle, according to Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego, who noted that Li’s appointment will place a leader without any State Council experience at the head of that body — something not seen in decades.

“The Chinese economy and the State Council itself are so much more complex today compared to the 1980s. Not having that experience is going to at least initially make the job of running China’s state machinery that much more challenging,” said Shih, the author of “Coalitions of the Weak,” a book about elite politics in China over recent decades.

Meanwhile, the concentration of power “introduces a certain unhealthy dynamic in policymaking in that the people who are close to him are those who, over the years, have honed the skills of always agreeing and supporting Xi Jinping’s opinion,” he said.

Other new members include Cai, 66, party boss of Beijing and one of Xi’s most-trusted confidants; Li Xi, 66, current party chief of China’s southern economic engine Guangdong province and trusted Xi ally, who is expected to oversee the anti-corruption organization; and Ding, 60, Xi’s chief of staff and close aide.

More at CNN

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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