China’s demographic timebomb – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China’s aging population is leaving the labor force while dropping consumer confidence discourages youngsters from marrying or having children. Business analyst Shaun Rein tells Reuters the country is heading for a demographic disaster, and raising the pension age is one inevitable measure the government should take.

Reuters:

A record low birth rate in 2023 and a wave of health crisis-related deaths resulted in a second consecutive year of population decline, accelerating concerns about China’s demographic downturn.

Large groups of the 1.4 billion people living in the world’s second-largest economy will exit the labor pool and age past a prime period of their lives for consumption, exacerbating structural imbalances that policymakers have vowed to address.

“The world should be worried about China’s economic slowdown. It’s going to impact the profits of the world’s largest companies. When Chinese consumers are cutting back on their spending, that’s going to impact the Starbucks, the Nike’s, the Apples of the world,” Rein told Reuters.

More – including a video – at Reuters.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts in managing your China risks at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

China should improve position of single mothers – Zhang Lijia

 

Zhang Lijia

While fixing the dropping birth rate in China might be challenging, improving the current position of single mothers should be a no-brainer, says author Zhang Lijia in the South China Morning Post. Some provinces have started to deal with the Sishengzi, or “secretly born child”, as a growing number of women do not want to marry, but still want to have a child, she writes.

Zhang Lijia:

Sishengzi, or “secretly born child”, is a derogatory term to describe children born out of wedlock. For a woman to raise such a child in China used to be as difficult as climbing up the sky. To start with, without a marriage certificate, this child would not be able to get registered, which meant they could not go to a state school, take a flight or get vaccinated.

However, there are signs that suggest the Chinese government has begun to loosen control to a certain degree. In recent years, provinces such as Sichuan, Guangdong, Anhui and Shaanxi have issued new regulations that allow unmarried mothers to register their children. More governments are likely to follow suit.

In July, the authorities in Xian announced that single mothers could now apply for child subsidies and insurance. These developments are encouraging, but in my view, the central government needs to go much further.

The new regulations were developed amid increasing concerns of a plummeting birth rate. China allowed couples to have two children in 2016, with the limit going up to three children five years later, but not enough couples have taken up the offer. China’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.09 last year. The enormous cost of raising a child and changing values have also contributed to this alarming trend.

More in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on cultural change at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Falling birthrate hits baby industry – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

The baby industry used to be a winner in China in the past, but the falling birth rate is hitting international companies in this industry hard, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to Reuters. Part of the industry is now refocusing on India, which overtook China in population growth.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumption experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Three-child policy: how to get women on board – Zhang Lijia

 

Zhang Lijia

China’s new three-child policy has received a lackluster reception among its population. Author Zhang Lijia offers a few tips for the government to make its policy attractive for women: offer financial incentives, significantly expand its childcare capacity, and promote women-friendly policies and equality, she writes in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia:

Why aren’t young people keen on having children these days? First, living costs – and child-rearing costs – are high. Although the state offers nine years of compulsory education, urban parents are all vying to sign up their children for extra lessons and extracurricular activities, from English to piano.

The availability of childcare services in China is another headache. Young couples often have to rely on their parents or hire child minders, which only adds to the cost.

Furthermore, many educated professional women hesitate to have children due to the prevalence of sexual discrimination in the job marketplace.

Some companies refuse to hire women of child-bearing age or sack them if they become pregnant. I have heard stories of women being required to promise not to have children as a precondition for employment.

To deal with the issue, Chinese government agencies even issued a notice in 2019, forbidding prospective employers from asking female job candidates whether they were married or have children. While well intentioned, such a move was weak, to say the least.

For the women who have worked their way up to managerial positions, there is the worry that motherhood may send them back down the career ladder. The unfriendly environment for working mothers has deterred many women from having babies…

Evidence suggests that equality is good for fertility. Look at Europe as an example. France and Scandinavia have higher birth rates than southern European countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal, which have less gender equality and more rigid family norms, and where new mothers are expected to stay at home.

 In contrast, France and the Nordic countries have a relaxed attitude to family norms. Their governments offer equal support to families that come in different forms: married couples, unwed couples, same-sex couples and single parents.

The Chinese government should allow single women to have children, should they wish, and grant equal rights to their children.

The current fertility rate in China is 1.3, while last year, Chinese women on average were willing to have 1.8 children, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. So, if China plays its cards right, there should be room for growth.

More in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more political analysts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Why China’s birthrate is dropping – Zhang Lijia

 

Zhang Lijia

China’s government tries to raise the number of newborns to offset an aging population, but the latest demographics show Chinese do not follow that lead as the country’s birthrate is dropping. People choose to make a different choice, explains social commentator Zhang Lijia in the Guardian. “And society has become more tolerant.”

The Guardian:

Zhang Lijia, a writer, journalist and social commentator, said there was a change in attitude and many women – especially urban-living and highly educated – no longer regarded marriage and parenthood as “necessary passages in life or the essential ingredients of a happy life”.

“In another word, it is about choice. Better education, higher income and more career options grant these women the freedom to choose a lifestyle they desire. They are assertive enough to resist the pressure from their parents to produce children. And the society is more tolerant than before.”

More in the Guardian.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.