Tuesday, November 05, 2024

China’s financial measures: More about stabilization, not stimulus – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

China has started to push capital into its sluggish economy, but economists have different opinions on what the government wants to achieve. According to Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, its financial measures are more about stabilizing its economy, not about a full-blown stimulus as it did in the past, he says at the ChinaFile.

Arthur Kroeber:

China’s economic support measures are better described as stabilization than stimulus. Unlike in previous full-bore stimulus programs, for instance in 2008 and 2015, the aim today is not to engineer a boom but simply to halt the deterioration in economic conditions evident in the past few months, and stabilize growth at around the target of 5 percent.

China’s long-term economic strategy has not changed. Xi Jinping’s intent, as outlined in the Third Plenum decision this past July, is to shift capital from real estate and infrastructure into technology-intensive manufacturing. The aspiration is that the productivity gains from high-tech industries will deliver the long-run growth that China needs, offsetting the impact of a declining population and other negative factors. Another key goal of this strategy is to ensure that China becomes self-sufficient in core technologies, enabling it to withstand the pressure of U.S. containment policies. The leadership is fully prepared to tolerate a period of relatively sluggish growth as the price of making this structural shift.

But the stabilization policies of the last month show the limits of this tolerance. They also reflect a judgment that the contraction of the property sector, now into its fourth year, has gone far enough, and that policy should shift from restrictive to modestly supportive. The final policy move, expected in early November—issuance of long-term central government debt to swap for provincial debt—is a long-overdue recognition that the financial position of heavily indebted provinces is unsustainable, and that direct fiscal support from Beijing is needed.

Over the next year or so, the economic package is likely to succeed in its limited aims: reversing the decline in housing sales, and providing local governments with relief from interest payments so they can pay back wages to their employees and overdue bills to the companies that supply them with goods and services. This should be enough to stabilize GDP growth at somewhere close to the 5 percent target. The benefits to the rest of the world, however, will be modest. Neither consumer spending nor commodity demand will enjoy a dramatic pickup. And Beijing’s steady commitment to its investment-first growth strategy means that other countries will still face the challenge of intense competition from low-priced Chinese imports.

More opinions at the ChinaFile.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

Are you looking for more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Trends in the 11/11 festival – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

China’s Double 11 consumer festival has kicked off for its longest edition ever with five weeks. Consumption expert Ashley Dudarenok looks at this year’s trends for Campaign Asia. Dudarenok, author and China digital expert predicts that countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea—now part of the “free shipping zone”—will see a sharp rise in new users.

Campaign Asia:
Ashley Dudarenok, China digital transformation expert and founder of ChoZan, agrees, noting that “emotional consumption” is on the rise, particularly among younger Chinese consumers. “Toys and plushies are popular for comfort and stress relief,” she says, pointing to Jellycat’s dominance in the plush toy category, even surpassing Disney last year.
Taobao and Tmall’s official data have identified several booming consumption trends, including designer toys for young adults, pet products, and niche home appliances and furniture. As of October 24, 284 brands surpassed $14 million in sales. In particular, the beauty, fashion, sports & outdoor, and digital product categories have seen significant growth this year. Zhang refers to this phenomenon as the “lipstick effect,” an economic theory suggesting that “people are more likely to buy small, affordable luxuries when facing economic uncertainty. Hence the rise of small luxury purchases such as lipsticks, fragrances, concerts, wellness products and pet products”. Dudarenok, with years of observation from China marketing, sums up that consumers are buying more furniture and appliances. A total of 224 brands surpassed their entire first four-hour performance from last year. “The IP economy is still thriving”,  and Tmall now features over 1000 IP-based products to meet rising fan interest. She also highlights “Apple’s increasing efforts to attract budget-conscious buyers in China by making premium devices more affordable during the annual shopping festival. Apple quickly achieved one billion yuan in sales within just five minutes on Taobao and Tmall”…
Dudarenok, author and China digital expert predicts that countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea—now part of the “free shipping zone”—will see a sharp rise in new users as well. Early data from Singapore and Hong Kong already show a doubling of new consumers compared to last year.

More at Campaign Asia.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumption experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Customer centricity: key in a competitive market -Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Customer centricity is key in a competitive markets, more than customer friendliness, says marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok on her weblog. “China’s approach to customer centricity has been transformative, driven by a combination of technological integration and a deep understanding of consumer behavior,” she writes.

Ashley Dudarenok:

At the core of customer centricity is the focus on meeting customer needs. By truly understanding and fulfilling customer expectations, businesses can enhance customer satisfaction. Improved customer satisfaction brings numerous benefits, including increased customer loyalty and retention.

Satisfied customers are more likely to become brand advocates and provide positive word-of-mouth referrals, contributing to the growth of the business. Moreover, businesses that prioritize customer satisfaction create a distinct competitive advantage by differentiating themselves from rivals.

Hgh levels of customer satisfaction lead to a higher likelihood of customer forgiveness in the event of occasional service issues or mistakes. When customers feel valued and their needs are consistently met, they are more understanding and forgiving of any shortcomings.

More at Ashley’s weblog.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like her to be at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more marketing experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

What can a newcomer to Shanghai expect from commerce – Sharon Gai

 

Sharon Gai

Paula Macaggi, the founder of OFFBounds, sets off for her first trip to Shanghai and questions e-commerce expert Sharon Gai, the author of  Ecommerce Reimagined: Retail and Ecommerce in China on what she can expect on her journey. Key Takeaways: •⁠ ⁠The super app experience with WeChat •⁠ ⁠How China’s retail is about content and entertainment •⁠ ⁠Unique consumer behaviors and retail experiences only found in China •⁠ ⁠The rise of sustainable consumption in Chinese e-commerce.

Sharon Gai is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like her at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more e-commerce experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

How China leads the world in AI patents – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Innovation expert Ashley Dudarenok explains how China leads the global competition for AI patents, six times over the US, she tells at TikTok.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

 Are you looking for more innovation experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

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Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Hurun China rich list loses 30% of its billionaires – Rupert Hoogewerf

 

Rupert Hoogewerf

The Hurun China rich list published its 2024 results and its chairman Rupert Hoogewerf saw 30 percent of the country’s billionaires disappear, he says on CNBC. “The Hurun China Rich List has shrunk for an unprecedented third year running, as China’s economy and stock markets had a difficult year,” said Rupert Hoogewerf.

CNBC:

China has 1,094 individuals with wealth exceeding 5 billion yuan ($700 million), down by 12% or 147 individuals from the previous year, according to Hurun Research. The combined wealth of these entrepreneurs amounted to $3 trillion, 10% lower than last year.

The country’s billionaire count dropped by 142 to 753 from a year earlier — and down more than 30% from the 2021 high of 1,185.

“The Hurun China Rich List has shrunk for an unprecedented third year running, as China’s economy and stock markets had a difficult year,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun report chairman and chief researcher.

The current rich list predominantly comprises entrepreneurs from the technology, consumer electronics and new energy space, from what used to be dominated by real estate developers, Hoogewerf noted.

“The stories of the individuals on the Hurun China Rich List tell the story of the Chinese economy,” he said.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs are also more international than their predecessors, Hoogewerf observed, citing how ByteDance’s Zhang went global with TikTok and Pinduoduo’s Huang crafted Temu’s ascent as a global e-commerce hub.

 

More at CNBC.

Rupert Hoogewerf Is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more stories by Rupert Hoogewerf?  Check out this list.

Pleas

Monday, October 28, 2024

How pilgrimages and the China state relate to each other – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson in Berlin

Islam and Christianity often get a hard time from China’s authorities, while local beliefs, Taoism, and Buddhism enjoy the support of the government. Journalist and researcher Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, followed local pilgrimages for almost a decade and recently joined the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin to study the relation between those beliefs and the state, he tells in an introduction at the start of his new study.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Would you like him at your meeting or conference? Contact us or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on cultural change at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Why movies in China are doing suprisingly well – Ben Cavender

 

Ben Cavender

Consumer spending in China might be in the doldrums, but a remarkable exception is the movie industry, says business analyst Ben Cavender in the Wall Street Journal. Visiting film theaters has become an affordable time out for friends and families of more tight-fisted consumers, he says. The planned expansion of the number of theaters to 5,000 per year shows the industry’s optimism. Also: domestic movies are doing better than the previously popular foreign competitors.

Ben Cavender is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more consumption experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

How AI will move the metaverse forward – Alvin Wang Graylin

 

Alvin Wang Graylin

Innovations expert Alvin Wang Graylin, global VP of HTC and co-author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse explains at the AI Shift podcast how AI is going to push the metaverse forward.

Alvin Wang Graylin is a innovations expert at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Get in touch or fill out our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more innovation experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

Alvin recently became the chair of the Virtual World Society.