Expected: Pakistan autonomous region - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

As Pakistan become more isolated from its Western allies after the killing of Osama Bin Laden, the country is looking increasingly for friendship with its eastern neighbor China, writes Bill Dodson on his weblog. Will the Pakistani wake up was part of an Autonomous Region?

Of course, China’s alliance with Pakistan serves to poke a stick in America’s eye. The Americans have seen their credibility with the Pakistanis decrease nearly daily since the assasination of bin Laden. A closer relationship with Pakistan also helps China leverage negotiations with India on issues ranging from trade through territorial disputes.

Still, China may eventually rue the day it built the bed into which it crawled with a fundamentally fundamentalist, corrupt, poverty-stricken and unstable country. China’s prognostications of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries may undergo a major test when it finds Chinese merchants or engineers or even soldiers under fire from Islamic extremists.

Then, perhaps, China will begin to understand that with wealth and standing in the world comes commensurate responsibility and accountability.

More on Bill Dodson's weblog

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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When East and West meet for business - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

Chinese and Western business practices differ, quite a lot. Bill Dodson recalls on his weblog a due diligence trip into Zhejiang province, visiting a company that offered to their Western visitors two accounting books.  The Western visitors were shocked. A different modus operandi.

One of the brothers and an assistant, a young woman in a factory smock, brought out two great ledgers, hand-written. Two books? the Europeans queried.

“Oh, one book is for us and the other for the tax authorities,” one of the brothers answered blithely. “They don’t want us to report too much income, so we have to keep the records elsewhere.,” he explained. Apparently, the difference in actual vs. reported was negotiated and channeled to tax patrons. Neither of the brothers considered maintaining at least two sets of books or tax negotiations or contorted shareholding structures at all improper. It was just the way things ran in China. Visits to the remaining two targets revealed the same modus operandi.

It’s no wonder, then, that Chinese businesses seem genuinely aggrieved that Western shareholders and stock exchanges consider their business dealings improper at best, down-right illegal at their most dramatic. After all, what’s worked for a society for thousands of years must be good for the rest of the world.

More in Bill Dodson's weblog.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.

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Social unrest in China: mostly an Asian affair? - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson has been writing extensively about social unrest in China and what it means for foreign companies. In his weblog he focuses on the fact that most strikes have been at factories owned by Japanese, Taiwanese and some Hongkongnese. Some observations.

One of the interesting points I turned up in my research for the report was the overwhelming number of companies at which workers are staging proletariat-style revolts are Asian: Taiwanese and Japanese, mainly, with some Hong Kong investors I suspect are predominantly Chinese Mainlanders “round-tripping”; that is, setting up HK investment vehicles to re-invest in the Mainland as foreign companies: helps in reducing local tax burdens and makes it easier to get their income out of China.

I’ve always been of the mind Asian investors tend to treat their employees as liabilities, disposable; while Western companies invested for the long-term in China tend to treat their staff as assets to take care of and encourage. People don’t like being treated as liabilities. Of course, their are exceptions in both camps; however, I’ve found few exceptions over the years.

More at Bill Dodson's weblog

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

The knock-on effect for wind and solar energy - Bill Dodson

A shortage of water is curtailing hydro power, the coal industry and China's nuclear ambitions, offering wind and solar energy great opportunities, told energy expert Bill Dodson yesterday at the Shanghai Foreign Correspondents Club. In theory.

From his weblog:

Again this year, hydropower dams in the southwest are generating power below capacity. Coal mines in the north are unable to operate due to a lack of water. And – to my estimation – aggressive plans to build nuclear plants along the Yangtze and Yellow rivers will have to change due to the lack of water flowing the concourses (and what to do with waste river water in the event of a Fukushima-style event).

The knock-on effects for the energy sector include greater opportunities for growth in the wind and solar power industries, and increased emphasis on energy efficiency, especially in its dreadfully wasteful property sector. However, by 2020 – when China’s energy requirements are set to double from the 2010 level of 1,000-gigawatts -  these alternatives will account for less than five percent of the total portfolio for energy generation. China’s big bet to take hydropower from generating its current level of about 20% of the nation’s energy to 25% by 2020 just may not be realized. The abundant sources of water the country has banked on for thousands of years may simply no longer be available in the quantities it has planned for its new and enlarged cities.

More at his weblog.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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China's green energy gains from Fukushima - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

The chain of disasters at the nuclear plan in Fukushima have cause a shock in China's energy policies, but solar and wind power industries in particular are beneficiaries of Japan’s nuclear tragedy, writes energy expert Bill Dodson.

Bill Dodson:

The Chinese alternative energy business has found ways to turn danger into opportunity...

The tsunami and subsequent China State Council moratorium provided Chinese manufacturers of solar panels welcome relief. With an estimated doubling solar manufacturers in China from two hundred to four hundred in 2010, analysts and regulators braced the markets for a consolidation that would see the under-capitalized and the unsophisticated go out of business or be bought out by larger companies. Instead, the tsunami swept new life into the marketplace.

And:

In 2010 China surpassed its 2020 target of 30-gigawatts installed wind power capacity by as much as 15-gigawatts. However, nearly 30-percent of the wind turbines installed in China are not connected to grids to provide electricity. Central government planners, it seemed, had little control over local priorities as only 26 of the 187 wind farms established in 2010 were actually approved by central government. Nevertheless, the Fukushima incident if anything seemed to encourage the development of even more wind power energy.  BJX News cited estimates of wind power taking as much as half the 300-gigawatts slated for alternative energy production in 2020. Nothing, it seems, will dent China’s momentum in developing its alternative energy sources.

More at ChinaEnergySector.com (registration compulsory).

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Chinese website: crowded and kinetic - Bill Dodson

China veteran Bill Dodson describes in EON Business wire how different Chinese websites are from their Western counter parts. "Chinese websites reflect the condition and dynamics of Chinese society itself: crowded and kinetic"

Chinese netizens spend more of their time playing games, reading soft news, consuming streamed media such as (often pirated) films and socializing online, especially through the QQ instant messaging service, than Americans, according to Bill Dodson, author of the acclaimed book China Inside Out, which was published in February this year and includes a chapter about the internet in China.

"The presentation of information on Chinese websites is radically different from the more staid displays found on Western sites," said Dodson. "Chinese websites reflect the condition and dynamics of Chinese society itself: crowded and kinetic."...

The sheer size of the Chinese market heralds a bright future for Chinese online advertising firms, [Dodson says], with the specific nature of the country and its internet to some extent insulating companies such as Hylink from international competition.

"The wall China is building around its internet – linguistically, politically, technologically and commercially – will mean that the gulf in the advertising industry between China and the rest will remain wide and perhaps even widen," said Dodson.

Western firms will increasingly enlist Chinese agencies for access to Chinese consumers, he added

More in EON Business wire

Bill Dodson the author of the recently released book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World. He  is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Power outages start to hurt production - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

The current shortfall in electricity in China is already starting to hurt production, writes Bill Dodson in his weblog. As the summer nears, problems will increase. An its basically a government policy cause the problem.

Bill Dodson:

Much of the shortfall has to do with the government-controlled price at which steam coal is sold to power stations; the price is lower than market prices, so coal producers are simply choosing not to sell their coal to the electricity generators. The government, for its part, is loathe to lift the ceiling on coal prices, as inflationary pressures are already aggravating a populace edgy for the good life – which, of course, requires increasing amounts of electricity.

However, judging by my electricity bills this past summer, I’m also loathe to see my electricity bills increase any further.

More on his weblog.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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The reversed gender gap at universities - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson          

Most are familiar with the gender gap in China, where men outnumber women in national statistics. But Bill Dodson noted recently during lectures at a business school in Ningbo, his class had a reversed gender gap: 70 percent female students.
In his weblog:

After the university talk, I asked my hosts why it was the audience was so tilted toward women. Was it that women who had found the poster advertising the talk found my photo sexy or was it the more urbane fact that there were overwhelmingly more women on campus than men? (Actually, I didn’t ask the first question; though I did entertain the thought).
My host, a young, portly and good-natured student who worked part-time at the library answered, “The curriculum at the school is in English,” he himself answered in accented English. “Women score better on the language portion of the university entrance examination than the men, so more women than men are admitted to the university; also, more women in the undergraduate school enroll in our business school.” He finished quickly, “When we open our engineering school, the campus should attract more men. We hope to have more balance at the school within a couple years.”

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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All foreign books to be banned in China? - Bill Dodson

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Bill Dodson

Celebrity author Bill Dodson just discovered by accident that his succesful book China Inside Out has been taken off the shelves of a book store in Suzhou. It might be the start of more, he reports at his weblog. In the end all foreign books might be banned in China.

China Inside Out apparently caught the attention of the Fahrenheit 451 brigade in Suzhou. I’d gone down to the local branch of the Bookworm this past Sunday to kick-off a Royal Asiatic Society author’s talk on Edmund Backhouse’s Decadence Mandchoue, as bawdy an historical narrative as one will ever find. A friend at the shop told me my book had caused a bit of a stir a few days before with the local F451. I thought he was kidding.
The proprietor confirmed after the Decadence talk that, indeed, F451 had been to the shop, saw the nice little display for the book set up at the front bar; and politely asked that the book be removed. In all fairness, it’s not the first time the shop has been targeted. And it won’t be the last time, either. Apparently, F451 will shortly be requiring ALL books written by foreigners be taken down from the shelves.
Regime change has central and local authorities more brittle than at any time in twenty years.
The country just can’t seem to break out of some cycles.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him (and his books) at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Doing Business in Chongqing: A Wild Ride - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

Western companies are flocking into Central China, running into new unchartered territory, writes Bill Dodson in the China Business Services, an excerpt from his book. Local government are just one of the unpredictable dangers, like in Chongqing.

Great hidden costs lay in store for potential investors like: government corruption; changeable policies; inflated costs of production inputs; a lack of skilled labor and experienced management; and affordable salary levels high enough to attract Chinese nationals from the east coast.

John, a friend with whom I’d worked on a project in Kunshan, near Shanghai, spent two years building an export factory in Chongqing for a mid-sized American company. John explained to me, “The township where the factory is located ran out of its allotment of natural gas half-way into the year. Cheap supplies of natural gas was the ONLY reason the company had put the operation there. It’s even in the contract that the company will receive supplies of natural gas without interruption. So when the local government told me, ‘So sorry, no more gas for you,’ I was angry. One of the Vice Mayors of the township offered that if my company gave him 2 million RMB the local government would look the other way while I hooked up to the gas supplies in the next town over.”

More stories in the China Business Services or in his book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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What about your contingency plan? - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson       

Is your company ready when China explodes, falls into piece, or does both, Bill Dodson wonders on his weblog. What happens in your company when the natives get restless?

Interestingly, most of the rejection has been of Asian companies; expressly, Taiwanese (Foxconn) and Japanese (most recently the car plants in the south whose workers went on strike while Foxconn staff was suicidal; and the rampant protests in Chinese cities against the Japanese in 2005). Mostly, Western companies, which in general tend to pay their workers more than their Asian FDI counterparts and – again, generally – tend to treat their staff with a bit more respect than Asian investors – have gotten off with little more than job-hopping youngsters who will quit and join another company for a 50 RMB raise in salary.
Still, that’s not to say that Western companies should be complacent about social upheaval in China that could affect their operations. Recall the boycotts of French brands and retailers in 2008, when the French government made gestures that drew the ire of Chinese hardliners: Carrefour and Auchan had a tough time of it while thousands of Chinese protesters all but ransacked the hypermarkets. American businesses must remember the ritual stoning of the American embassy in 1999 (oops, we bombed which embassy?) and then again in 2001 (spy planes like us).

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Most-sought speakers in April 2011

Kaiser Kuo

"No comment." Few of our speakers have been quoted so often by the mainstream media saying nothing. Kaiser Kuo easily made it into the top-position of most-sought speakers for April as he was - and still is - unable to say anything about a possible cooperation between his company Baidu and Facebook. It has not reduced his popularity in our top-10.
He even passed Shaun Rein, who had a top-month in doing the opposite: saying things that matter. Shanghai Disney, inflation, IKEA, Fukushima, Google and the luxury goods market: almost no day passed without mainstream media quoting Shaun Rein.
Most popular newcomer is certainly Bill Dodson, whose book, China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World, is making big waves.
Our top-10 of most-sought speakers for April (March in brackets)

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Bill Dodson

1. Kaiser Kuo (2)
2. Shaun Rein (1)
3. Victor Shih (10)
4. Paul French (3)
5. William Overholt (7)
6. Tom Doctoroff (5)
7. Arthur Kroeber (4)
8. Bill Dodson (-)
9. Helen Wang (8)
10. Wendell Minnick (6)

(We have an early release of our top-10 as we are preparing to move our China Speakers Bureau website, and counting system, into Wordpress. You might notice some disturbances on the line, as we move on.)

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Thursday book talk in Chengdu - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

The Chengdu Bookworm, part of the famous chain of book stores, will host a book talk by Bill Dodson on his book China Inside Out on Thursday 24 March at 7.30PM, he announces on his weblog.

I’ve been invited to the Chengdu Bookworm to discuss my book China Inside Out this week Thursday, March 24, at 7:30pm. The Bookworm’s Literary Festival is winding down this week, with appearances by Jonathan Watts, author of When a Billion Chinese Jump, and Peter Hessler, author of Country Roads. I’m pulling up the rear.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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No salt for my French fries - Bill Dodson

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Bill Dodson

Salt hysteria has hit the East coast of China and Bill Dodson reports in his weblog from Shanghai on the difficulties of getting salt for his French fries.

My wife later that evening told me over dinner how our ayi had bought a kilogram of salt. “It was so expensive,” she told me, “a single small bag can now cost 15 rmb.” Bags used to cost a couple yuan. She explained to me the near-hysteria with which Chinese consumers were buying up salt in fear of atomic radiation blowing in from Japan should a reactor explode at the Fukushima nuclear plant. The iodine in salt, so Chinese wisdom holds, will protect consumers from radiation poisoning. She told me, “I said to the ayi, ‘What are you going to do, eat handfuls of salt?” She said the ayi had no response.
The government has remained mum on the subject, perhaps theorizing that because there is no solution should there actually be contamination, that at least salt is cauterizing pedestrian anxieties. Salt producers must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Book launch "Inside out", Saturday in Suzhou - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson, signing his book

While already going strong, the global launch of Bill Dodson's new book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World will take place this Saturday in Suzhou, he announces at his weblog:

The Suzhou Launch will be this coming Saturday, March 12, 2011, at the Bookworm in Suzhou, just off Shiquan Jie. The book talk will last about an hour, starting at 4pm; after which will be a launch party with free flow wine and beer (but just for another hour or so).
I’ll be discussing the ramifications for China of the first couple pages of chapter 2 of the book, in which I describe how I unwittingly become caught up in a revolt of middle class protesters angry about the invasion of a property developer onto land to which they hold the deeds. Now, we’re not talking peasants, here; but bonafide, certified, Chinese professionals who find themselves pitted against the local government, unscrupulous property developers, construction managers with bad comb-overs and white-helmeted police in a local, Suzhou dispute that turns very ugly.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Explaining China "inside out" - book review

Bill Dodson

Explaining China to an outside audience will never be very easy, but most (book) authors fall at least in one of two major pitfalls.
First, their writings are often meant to outsmart their fellow China experts, not to inform people. While there is nothing wrong with trying to look better than your peers, it seldom is the best way to explain a complicated China to relative newcomers. Expert reviewers often complain they have found nothing new, unless a book challenges their world view. They just fail to understand, they might not be the target audience.
On the other extreme other authors simplify what is happening in China to such a degree, to accommodate their audiene, the country becomes a cartoon of itself.
In his book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World, Bill Dodson gracefully avoids both dangers. His strong story telling skills makes his explanations both entertaining and convincing. This is a must-read book all China experts should advise to their newbie friends.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Misleading foreign media - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson via Flickr

Blunt comments by Chinese staff takes Western managers by surprise, explains Bill Dodson on his weblog in a story where a newcomer was set straight by his company manager after he mentioned censorship on the internet. "You have been misled by foreign media".

During the afternoon meeting one of the Western managers had made a point about the central government’s internet censorship policy. The plant manager replied, without missing a beat, “You have been mislead by the foreign press”. The Western manager paused a moment, off-balanced by the remark. He had only been in China a couple days, and so was not used to the bluntness with which Chinese can address friends and coworkers. The Western GM, a long-time resident of China, laughed. The plant manager was serious; however, he quickly lightened up because of his travels outside the country and his work over the years with Western colleagues.

Bill Dodson just published his book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World.

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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US IT programmers for a China price - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

The pendule of globalization is now moving towards the US, notes Bill Dodson in his weblog, where IT programmers cost a much as those in China. An analysis of the moving IT market in the eyes of Bill's American friend:

“They sharpest ones (in India) took their money and left. And the country hasn’t cultivated the rest.” She was enthusiastic about the Dutch, who are producing some “amazing” technologies, she said. She’s also working with a Finnish team. “The Finns are doing some cutting-edge stuff,” she added. So what else is there to do during those long, cold, dark winter days, I wanted to quip (but didn’t). I asked her about the Chinese software team she had been working with six months ago.

“They were so-so. Nothing really sparkling. And now, because the economy in the States has been so bad, American developers are now costing me about the same price.” She gave me an example. “A Chinese team leader quoted me a price of 300 rmb per hour for a programmer. That’s more than $20 and hour: I can get a really good American programmer for that price – and we’ll have a cultural affinity that I’ll never have with the Chinese, even though they may just be a fifteen minute drive down the road from me (in Suzhou).”

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Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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China inside out - Bill Dodson

Bill Dodson

Our exclusive speaker Bill Dodson just had his book China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World released at the publisher Wiley's.
A highly animated and energetic speaker, he presents in a clear and understandable way the important trends impacting China markets, business interests invested in the country and international relations with other nations. He uses high-profile current events underscored by personal anecdotes from his years of living and working in China to explain China's culture, politics, industrial policies and investment trends.

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Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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