China watcher Kaiser Kuo sees now the China hawks in the US are losing ground, after Trump realized China was not the pushover he hoped for, in a wide-ranging discussion at the Nonzero podcast with Robert Wright.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo, host of The Sinica Podcast, looks back at how the debate on China has developed in the West over the past forty to fifty years, and here it ended now, in a debate with host Eric Olander of Conversation Changers. The discussion on what China wants says more about the West than about China, he argues.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo looks at the lessons the West can learn from China, and how the China debate needs a much-needed reshuffle, a major essay at the Ideas Newsletter. “The question is whether we will meet it with the rigorous self-examination that has historically enabled democratic renewal, or retreat once more into the comforting myths that have blinded us to both our weaknesses and our rivals’ strengths,” Kuo writes.
Kaiser Kuo:
This essay does not rehearse the familiar bill of particular on China – constraints on political pluralism and independent media; expansive security powers and preemptive detention; pressure on religious and ethnic expression; and episodes of extraterritorial coercion—not because those concerns are trivial, but because the task here is different. We’ve all learned to recite that litany, as a way of protecting ourselves from what real comparison might imply. The aim here is to confront, with intellectual honesty, what China’s achievements oblige us to reconsider about modernity, state capacity, forms of political legitimacy, and our own complacencies. Recognizing real costs can coexist with taking the magnitude of transformation seriously. This argument asks us to face squarely what has been accomplished and then measure ourselves against it.
And let me be clear: This reckoning is not a surrender. It is not an argument for abandoning liberal values, declaring authoritarian systems superior, or slavishly imitating features of China’s governance. It is instead a call for the kind of frank, sober assessment that genuine confidence requires—the willingness to acknowledge challenges directly, to learn from others’ successes even when they unsettle our assumptions, and to strengthen our own institutions through clear-eyed recognition of their shortcomings rather than defensive denial of their failures. Liberal democracy is indeed undergoing a profound crisis, but that crisis need not be terminal. The question is whether we will meet it with the rigorous self-examination that has historically enabled democratic renewal, or retreat once more into the comforting myths that have blinded us to both our weaknesses and our rivals’ strengths.
China veteran Kaiser Kuo recalls how it was living in Beijing and other 1st tier cities in China, compared to the US, in an interview at the Smart Cookies Podcast. “It’s a RAT RACE, but unlike the US, you only need 1 job!”, he adds.
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The number one mistake the West has about China is that China wants to replace the US as the leading global force, says China veteran Kaiser Kuo in an extensive interview in the Smart Cookies Episode. But that is only one of many misunderstandings.
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A decade ago, China launched its ambitious “Made in China 2025”. And while the phrase has disappeared, the industrial ambitious have no, writes China veteran Kaiser Kuo at the World Economic Forum. Today, that strategy appears to be entering a new phase — one we might call “Made in China 2.0,” he says.
Kaiser Kuo:
Launched a decade ago, “Made in China 2025” appeared to many as the emblem of China’s vaulting industrial ambitions: a state-driven roadmap to catapult the nation from the world’s factory floor to the apex of advanced manufacturing.
Though the slogan itself quietly vanished from official Chinese discourse under international scrutiny, the underlying agenda never did. Instead, its objectives evolved, were rebranded under banners like “dual circulation” and “high-quality development,” and ultimately seeped into the marrow of China’s industrial strategy.
Today, that strategy appears to be entering a new phase — one we might call “Made in China 2.0.” While it lacks a formal label, its contours are increasingly clear: an AI-augmented, green-energy-powered, self-reliance-oriented transformation of the world’s most formidable industrial base. In everything from electric vehicles and solar panels to humanoid robots and enterprise-grade AI systems, China is defining the terms of competition.
This transformation is unfolding amid profound global shifts. Fragmenting supply chains, rising techno-nationalism, and concerns over overcapacity have created a contested landscape for global manufacturing. Yet within that turbulent context, China has continued to expand its industrial and technological footprint. The question is no longer whether China can innovate, but what kind of innovation ecosystem it is building — and whether it might constitute an alternative paradigm to the liberal market model.
More at the World Economic Forum.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo examines the ten Chinese companies, which are booming in China’s economy, despite the pressure it is under. Most names might be new to the non-Chinese, but these ten are worth putting on your China watch list, if they are not yet, he writes at the World Economic Forum: CATL (宁德时代), Envision Energy (远景能源), Haier (海尔集团), Huawei (华为), JinkoSolar (晶科能源), LONGi Green Energy Technology (隆基绿能科技股份有限公司), Meituan (美团), Pop Mart (泡泡玛特), Seres Group (赛力斯), Xiaohongshu (小红书 / RedNote),
Kaiser Kuo on Haier:
Status: Public (SSE: 600690), also listed in Hong Kong
Founded: 1984 by Zhang Ruimin
Headquarters: Qingdao, Shandong province
Main Businesses: Smart appliances, IoT, home automation solutions, digital factories
Why It Matters:
The oldest company on our list, Qingdao-based Haier revolutionized Chinese entrepreneurship — famously when its CEO used a sledgehammer to destroy a defective fridge in the year of its founding. In the 40 years since, it’s grown from a white goods company known mainly for its dormitory refrigerators into a global IoT appliance leader, integrating AI across its platforms and operating micro-factories in over 20 global markets while targeting zero-carbon operations.What You Probably Didn’t Know:
Haier spun off nearly a dozen micro-factories: small, flexible production units focused on local demand and customization. In Qingdao, one “dark factory” — so-called because there’s no need for lights in this almost fully robotic operation — produces washing machines and fridges autonomously, with no more than three human overseers.
Think of it as…
GE Appliances meets Bosch’s precision engineering, with a dash of Netflix’s AI-driven personalization and modular, user-centric flair.
Nine more at the World Economic Forum.
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Technology veteran Kaiser Kuo explains how AI developments with DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot AI, and iFlyTek emerged as winners in China’s technology scene. Especially, the coordination between the state, the market, and academia helps technology to move in the same direction, he adds at the World Economic Forum.
Kaiser Kuo:
One of the less visible but profoundly consequential enablers of China’s rapid advance in generative AI is the unusually tight coordination among its public sector institutions, academic research bodies and private firms. While this kind of alignment is sometimes viewed with suspicion outside of China, particularly when it is framed in terms of state-led industrial policy or state-backed enterprise, the practical effect has been to lower barriers between research and application, to accelerate funding decisions and to unify long-term technological goals across domains.
Consider how China’s most capable research universities — Tsinghua, Peking University, Shanghai Jiaotong, Zhejiang University — serve not only as training grounds for AI talent, but as intellectual incubators for commercial ventures. Many of the leading generative AI firms in China, including Zhipu AI and Baichuan, emerged directly from university research labs, often with seed funding from state-affiliated venture arms and built-in partnerships with municipal development zones or digital economy clusters.
State guidance funds, particularly those aligned with the “New Infrastructure” initiatives launched in the late 2010s, have prioritised compute infrastructure, AI chips and cloud services. These funds offer long-horizon capital to projects that would likely struggle to gain equivalent traction in private markets, particularly during periods of economic tightening or when returns on investment are uncertain. Yet at the same time, the market incentive remains intact. Leading Chinese AI startups face intense domestic competition from rivals like DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot AI and iFlyTek, all of which operate in a fast-moving environment that rewards iterative gains and rapid deployment.
Much more at the World Economic Forum.
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How did China change from an economic laggard into a booming country? China veteran Kaiser Kuo dives into the country’s 40-year transformation for the World Economic Forum. For example, how it succeeded in becoming a digital giant.
Kaiser Kuo:
The Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping has as its current focus the development of “new quality productive forces.” What this means is that innovation will, it is hoped, become the main driver of growth, with an emphasis on quality growth over quantity or rapid expansion. This translates more concretely into a renewed emphasis on basic science, “hard” tech like new materials and semiconductors, artificial intelligence, supply chain efficiency and rationalization, and green and sustainable development.
Xi Jinping would like to see physicists doing physics, not designing sophisticated financial products or social media advertising algorithms. Whether these strategies will succeed in navigating China through its next phase of development remains an open question, but if China’s past record is any indication, one might reconsider betting against it.
Other developing countries might look to China’s experience for lessons, but the unique combination of historical context, cultural factors, and policy decisions that shaped China’s rise may not be easily replicable. When its own rhetoric speaks so often of “Chinese characteristics,” it may be less likely that China will seek to push its own developmental model, though doubtless some of its features will prove attractive. As China continues to evolve, the world will be watching closely to see how it addresses these challenges and what new pathways it charts for future growth.
Those challenges are numerous: Environmental degradation, rising labour costs, and an aging population pose significant hurdles. Maintaining the stability that has been so crucial for China thus far, while allowing for experimental approaches, improvisation, and creative thinking that will drive economic dynamism in the future will require careful balancing.
Much more at the World Economic Forum.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo has spent a lifetime explaining what America and Europe misunderstand when dealing with China. In an interview with Michael Walker, he dives into the most important issues. “The West lacks a coherent approach to China, with America viewing it as an existential threat whilst Europe oscillates between paranoia about espionage and courting investment. Politicians across both continents share a superficial understanding of the world’s most important rising power.”
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo, host of the renowned Sinica Podcast, moderates a debate on China’s strategy in the global power transitions for the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China. Some of the key questions: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War affect China’s relations with its key partners? How has the Russo-Ukrainian War reshaped China’s economic capacity?
He is joined by
North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill, U.S.
of Social Sciences, P.R.C.
University, Latvia
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China expert Kaiser Kuo kicks off a wide-ranging debate on Huawei and describes how it developed from a rather obscure brand with no government support into the national champion it is today, at the Asia Society. Now it appeals to nationalistic feelings among consumers in China, but that trajectory was not so obvious at its humble start, he says.
Later, the debate focuses on whether Huawei can have its own “DeepSeek moment” in the semiconductor industry.
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China expert Kaiser Kuo attended this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos and wrote up the three trends shaping China’s development for the Weforum. Including how China is managing multiple transitions, its role in the global industry, and the country’s latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.
Kaiser Kuo:
The electric vehicle sector emerged as a prime example of China’s evolving role in global industry. Pan Jian, co-chairman of Chinese EV battery giant CATL, emphasized the need for global collaboration: “It’s not going to be a one-country effort in terms of EVs. It’s going to be a global effort.” He highlighted China’s success in fostering a robust EV ecosystem through what he called a “perfect marriage between the public and private sectors,” while noting that software integration has been crucial to China’s EV success: “In China, we no longer call them EVs; we call them EIVs — where the ‘I’ stands for ‘intelligent.’ The ‘I’ is what truly makes the difference. Without the intelligence aspect, EV penetration in China would never have exceeded 30%.”
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The international march forward of China’s EV producers profoundly influences the supply chains. China veteran Kaiser Kuo looks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, especially at CATL, the market leader for batteries in China, and a magnet for geopolitical tensions, he writes at the WEForum.
Kaiser Kuo:
China’s rise as a superpower in the electric vehicle (EV) industry has reshaped global supply chains, and at the centre of this transformation is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL). As the world’s largest EV battery maker, CATL has become a critical player in the clean energy transition – and a lightning rod for geopolitical tensions. Co-chairman and co-founder Pan Jian of CATL, speaking recently at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, underscored the global nature of the EV revolution: “It’s not going to be a one-country effort in terms of EVs. It’s going to be a global effort.”…
The road ahead for CATL is strewn with obstacles. The Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and proposed bans on Chinese software – the very thing Pan credits for China’s edge in EVs – in US-sold vehicles are likely to complicate CATL’s operations. Furthermore, the Pentagon’s designation could deter US automakers from deepening partnerships with CATL, despite the company’s importance to their supply chains.
Yet CATL’s leadership remains confident. Pan’s optimism reflects a broader belief in the inevitability of EVs and the necessity of global collaboration. “It’s a massive cultural shift,” he said, referring to the transformation of the auto industry, “but it’s going to happen.”
As the EV revolution accelerates, CATL’s ability to navigate these geopolitical and market complexities will shape not only its future, but also the contours of the global energy transition. Its story is emblematic of a world grappling with the contradictions of competition, cooperation and the urgent need for sustainability.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo of the Sinica Podcast moderates a discussion on how the US-China tension have an profound impact on the war in the Ukraine and the position of Taiwan at the Ukrainian platform for Contemporary China.
The speakers: Da Wei, Director of Center for International Security and Strategy; Professor at School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University; Dmytro Burtsev, Junior Fellow at A. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Emilian Kavalski, Professor at Centre for International Studies and Development, Jagiellonian University in Krakow; Yuan I, Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
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US lawmakers have started debate on a law that would ban the successful TikTok app. Political analyst Kaiser Kuo dismisses the effort as misguided at best, he writes in the ChinaFile. “In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.”
Kaiser Kuo:
The bill that got through Congress on Wednesday to effectively ban TikTok—let’s not pretend either that this bill isn’t specifically about TikTok, or that a forced divestiture isn’t tantamount to a ban—is the latest example of a classic pattern of American behavior: In a panicked attempt to preserve the American way of life, we undermine that very way of life. This time, we seem to be falling over one another to sacrifice our openness, a cornerstone of American strength, out of exaggerated fear that a social media app owned by a Chinese company could be our undoing. As usual, this whole episode says much more about us than it does about China. We have a terrible track record of making bad decisions while in the throes of a moral panic, from Prohibition to the Patriot Act. A closer analogy can be found in the Trump administration’s moves to restrict Chinese STEM students and researchers from coming and working in the U.S., and the subsequent China Initiative. Out of a fear that Chinese industrial espionage would confer an advantage on Beijing, we somehow decided that we were better off if all that prodigious Chinese STEM talent went back to China or just stayed there.
If we accept that we ought to take preemptive action against threats to national security, even if they are only latent and potential, any actions should address those potential threats in good faith. In this case, the threats are data harvested by social media falling into the hands of the Chinese, and social media being used by China to advance a hostile agenda. The bill now making its way to the Senate does not address either of these threats. Instead, it takes aim only at one relatively minor potential vector. Not only is the preponderance of valuable data on TikTok out in the open—the content itself, not the metadata—and would be there just the same irrespective of who owned the company, but Beijing can easily either buy valuable data from brokers, vacuum it up from other social media properties, or just acquire it the old fashioned way, through hacking.
That the motive behind this bill is not, in fact, data security is driven home by the refusal of legislators to accept ByteDance’s own proposal, Project Texas, which was devised in consultation with the Austin-based tech company Oracle and The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and would see data localized and housed entirely on servers controlled by Oracle with oversight entirely by U.S. citizens vetted and approved by Oracle. Project Texas would make TikTok the most locked-down, secure social media property in the U.S., if not in the world. The notion that even under that plan, Beijing would still decide to squeeze ByteDance just to acquire data it could obtain far more easily, and in ways that wouldn’t seriously imperil the only Chinese social media company to have enjoyed any global success, is just risible.
And influence? If TikTok is a potent vector for Chinese propagandists, one has to ask: How’s that working out for you, Beijing? Across its years of popularity, American attitudes toward China have plummeted, not improved. If we’re looking for causation, it is clear enough that, if anything, it’s our low national opinion of China driving D.C.’s animus toward TikTok. In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.
More viewpoints at the ChinaFile.
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