Star Wars missing a following in China - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Box office revenue for Star Wars: The Last Jedi, was beaten by a local romantic movie, showing US movies do not automatically win in China. US classics to not have the following in China, they have at home, says business analyst Ben Cavender to CNBC. 

CNBC:

"[T]his is a franchise which has always struggled in China ... the cult following just doesn't exist," Ben Cavender, principal at consultancy China Market Research Group, told CNBC. He attributed the less-than-outstanding performance of "The Last Jedi" at the Chinese box office to the lack of "generational awareness" among Chinese consumers of the franchise. The first three films in the series, which first began in 1977, were never shown in theaters on the mainland. In fact, the first Hollywood film shown theatrically after the Cultural Revolution was "The Fugitive" — which coincidentally also starred "Star Wars" actor Harrison Ford — in 1994. 

In order to tackle that lack of awareness ahead of the mainland release of "The Force Awakens" two years ago, Disney carried out large-scale marketing campaigns that included positioning 500 white-armored stormtroopers on the Great Wall to drum up hype around the film. 

Disney also recruited popular Chinese singer Lu Han to star in a themed music video ahead of the mainland release of "The Force Awakens" back in 2016. 

This year, cast and crew members of "The Last Jedi" — including actress Daisy Ridley, actor Mark Hamill and director Rian Johnson — attended a premiere at Shanghai Disney Resort some two weeks ahead of the film's mainland release to drum up support. 

Meanwhile, the relative popularity of the latest "The Ex-File" sequel could also be due to Chinese consumers becoming more attached to local "story-driven" films, Cavender said, citing the outperformance of "Wolf Warrior 2" last year.

More at CNBC.

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"Star Wars" lacks cult following in China - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

While many movie watchers even get fussy feelings when they hear the words "Star War", China is lacking such a cult following, explains branding expert Ben Cavender to CNBC. Movies that would be a hit elsewhere in the world, are just not working in China, he says.

CNBC:

While it's been suggested the Disney movie's late arrival in China could have contributed to its poor performance — meaning pirates would have already had ample opportunity to see the film — other "Star Wars" movies have also seen soggy receptions on the mainland. 

"Star Wars: The Force Awakens," which premiered on the mainland in January 2016, took in $52 million and "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" recorded $30 million in the opening weekend, Variety reported. 

"[T]his is a franchise which has always struggled in China ... the cult following just doesn't exist," Ben Cavender, principal at consultancy China Market Research Group, told CNBC. 

He attributed the less-than-outstanding performance of "The Last Jedi" at the Chinese box office to the lack of "generational awareness" among Chinese consumers of the franchise... 

Disney also recruited popular Chinese singer Lu Han to star in a themed music video ahead of the mainland release of "The Force Awakens" back in 2016. 

This year, cast and crew members of "The Last Jedi" — including actress Daisy Ridley, actor Mark Hamill and director Rian Johnson — attended a premiere at Shanghai Disney Resort some two weeks ahead of the film's mainland release to drum up support. 

Meanwhile, the relative popularity of the latest "The Ex-File" sequel could also be due to Chinese consumers becoming more attached to local "story-driven" films, Cavender said, citing the outperformance of "Wolf Warrior 2" last year.

More at CNBC.

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Most Chinese firms not ready for major M&A - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The sudden US$9.3 bn restructuring of the Dalian Wanda deals left many observers flabbergasted. Most companies in China simply do not have the experience to execute this kind of large deals, says business analyst Ben Cavender to the BBC.

The BBC:

The restructuring of the deal was "kind of crazy" said Ben Cavender, senior analyst with China Market Research. 

"It is very concerning, and it's very unusual at this late stage to have a $9bn deal, and then to have another deal with another company in place." 

He added Chinese firms were running into trouble because they did not have the due diligence or vetting in place for large mergers and acquisitions. 

"They put out a lot of press, then the regulators realise there's some issues that need to be addressed. I suspect that's what happened here." 

The initial transaction had been a surprise - not least because it represented a U-turn from Dalian Wanda's ambitions to expand in the tourism sector. 

The three Chinese theme parks had only opened in the past year, and were intended to compete with US giant Disney's ventures in the country.

More in the BBC.

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Who will be the Disney of China? - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Entertainment parks are becoming big business in China, but there are at least three players trying to come the Disney of China, including Disney itself. Who will be the real Disney of China, wonders Beida business professor Jeffrey Towson on his weblog.

Jeffrey Towson:

The takeaway here is that while Disney’s dream is capturing the Chinese market, that is not the objective of the government, which is actively operating in this sector as both policeman and player. They are focused on the development of an entertainment industry in Shanghai. 

And while the government needs Disney today, it is worth keeping in mind this will not always be the case. 

Finally, well-funded locals, like Wanda and Alibaba Pictures, are now giving chase. This force is the most worrisome. 

Disney is off and running in China. But so are well-funded local competitors. Dalian Wanda Group clearly wants to be the “Disney of China” and has come out with guns and press releases blazing. They are opening multiple theme parks and are the largest owner of movie theaters in China and the U.S. (and #2 in Australia). They are also actively acquiring in Hollywood. Plus you have Alibaba Pictures, Huayi Brothers and others. The competitive picture is daunting. 

However, lots of rich companies have tried to be Disney in the past and have failed. When Disney entered Europe and Japan, lots of local companies had the same ambition. And for decades, other Hollywood studios have tried to replicate Disney in the US. All have largely failed. It turns out copying Disney is pretty difficult. 

Two companies have arguably had some success: Dreamworks, founded by Jeffrey Katzenberg (who previously ran Disney Animation); and Pixar, run by John Lasseter (purchased by Disney in 2006). You could also perhaps point to Lucasfilm, creator of the “Star Wars” franchise (now owned by Disney as well). But all of these are essentially pure media companies. None have replicated Disney’s combination of animation and theme parks. 

I think this has a lot to do with cash flow. Creating animated (and singing) movies that children love is tricky. It takes years of work for one movie, costs a lot of money and is “hit or miss”. If the movie is a hit, you make lots of money. If not, you probably go bust. The unpredictable cash flow makes funding animated movie development and then building large, expensive theme parks impossible for most all companies. Disney’s advantage is that it already has a stable of popular characters and international operations that create financial scale and stability. 

But even Disney has had trouble being Disney at times. It had great success under Walt Disney but struggled in the 1980s as its movies lost their appeal. And when the movies aren’t hits, the theme parks can suffer. New leadership took over (Eisner and Katzenberg) and a string of successes like “The Little Mermaid” and “Aladdin” followed. Disney again stumbled in the early 2000s until it bought Pixar, which made Steve Jobs the largest Disney shareholder. 

So now Chinese companies are trying to be like Disney in China, which is actually really difficult. Wanda is opening theme parks and starting to make animated movies. We will see if they are more successful than past attempts by cash rich companies. Overall, it is going to be an interesting fight to watch.

More at Jeffrey Towson's website.

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China's emerging LGBT consumers - Jeffrey Towson

Jeffrey Towson

Disney's movie Beauty and the Beast has not been released in Malaysia for a overtly gay scene. In China it was not problem, triggering off much attention also from state-owned media. Other countries have already discovered the LGBT community as an attractive group of consumers, and Beida business professor Jeffrey Towson discusses at his weblog this emerging community in China.

Jeffrey Towson:

China has a huge gay and lesbian population and a growing LGBT (ie., pink) economy. Both of which have been emerging in the recent years. Estimates put China’s LGBT population at likely 40-100M. Not only is this the largest LGBT population in the world, it is actually larger than the entire population of Malaysia (approx 31M). 

China is the world’s most populous nation so it stands to reason it has, or will have, the largest gay, lesbian and transgender population. Definitely larger than the population of Malaysia and probably larger than the populations of the UK and Germany. And in the last 2-3 years, this population has been increasingly visible. For example, in May 2016, China’s second annual LGBT job fair was held. It attracted 34 companies and over 500 job seekers. 

Companies participating included Morgan Stanley, Starbucks, Citi, 3M and Didi Chuxing. Also in 2016, Taobao and Blued, the largest Chinese gay dating app, held an online content to choose 6 same-sex couples to fly to West Hollywood to get married. Over 2,000 couples sent in videos for the contest. 

There is also increasing discussion about the emergence of China’s “pink economy”. One area within this that is getting significant attention is tourism. This demographic typically spends more time and money than heterosexual groups on lesiure (tourism, entertainment) and personal image building (gym, beauty, physical therapy). 

Another current area of interest in China’s LGBT economy is dating apps. Market leader Blued now has over 15M members in China alone, making it the largest gay dating service in the world. And it was only founded in 2012. And while Grindr is probably the world’s most famous gay dating app, this is actually also Chinese, having been purchased by Beijing Kunlun for $93M. Note: Grindr has 10M registered users compared to Blued’s 15M.

More of Jeffrey Towson's weblog.

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Smart move: Wanda hires Disney exec - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The battle between Wanda and Disney got a new twist as the Chinese company hired Andrew Kam, former managing director of Disneyland Hong Kong. A smart move, says retail analyst Ben Cavender in the China Daily.

China Daily:

The hiring of former Disney executives will help Wanda better learn Disney's strategy and insights, said Ben Cavender, principal of China Market Research Group. 

Wanda opened the first Wanda City project in May in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, and four months later the second opened in Hefei, Anhui province, marking the start of Wanda's ambitious plan to build 15 such projects across the country by 2020. 

Wanda Group said more than 1,700,000 people visited the two projects during the weeklong National Day Holiday, while Shanghai government statistics show the Shanghai International Tourism and Resorts Zone, where Shanghai Disneyland is located. 

But Cavender noted that planning and developing a culture business is a complex progress, and if Wanda wants to do it correctly, it is going to have to form a very strong team and long-term strategy rather than hiring a few people and opening parks quickly to get quick profits.

More in the China Daily.

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Shanghai Disney is not yet there - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Shanghai Disney opened with a lot of hype, but the number of visitors fell short of the expectations. The entertainment park is not yet where it wants to be, says business analyst Shaun Rein, although it might still bounce back from its current under-performance, he tells the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

Visitor stories so far, widely aired on social media, have also focussed on the 3-4 hour wait for some rides, or attractions shut down early, due to maintenance or overcrowding.

Despite making the experience as Chinese as possible – including Mickey Mouse-shaped braised pig knuckle, Peking Duck pizza, and a Chinese zodiac-inspired garden of Disney characters – Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group said Disney made a “big mistake” in not better handling long queues, which generated negative word of mouth and have forced consumers to adopt a “wait-and-see attitude”. 

“There’s still pretty good demand, but people [appear to] want to wait six months, 12 months, and even longer until the issues are ironed out,” he said. 

A BNP Paribas report agrees that the negative press on long waits may be why foreigners, too, are have been hesitant to visit “for the time being”. 

But this early performance of arguably China’s most high-profile tourist opening to-date could also prove an ominous reflection of just how hard the industry has reacted to a slowdown in income growth and weakened consumer confidence. 

“Consumers are really double-checking, and triple-checking where they visit. They really want to get the best value,” said Rein. 

He says outbound travel and tourism is 16 times the value compared with a decade ago, but Chinese buyers are now trending away from expensive places such as Europe, and towards “exotic and cheap” places in Southeast Asia, and domestic wilderness locations such as Yunan, Guilin, Qinghai, and Gansu. 

“Domestic tourism is still hot, but Shanghai is not,” he said... 

Rein said Chinese tourism will continue to grow, but people are changing where they want to go, so companies “need to be very agile in what they offer.” 

“But Disney will bounce [back], Disney is fine,” he said.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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Consumers still spend on experiences and kids - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Shanghai Disney opened this week after five years of preparing while China´s growth had been relatively slowing down. But business analyst Shaun Rein does not see this mega operation will be hurt by dropping consumer spending. Chinese still spend on experiences and their kids, he tells AP.

AP:

"I think it's really lively here and every girl can realize her dream of becoming a princess," said Gong Haiyan, a visitor from western China's Sichuan province. Wang Lei, 34, said she liked the park, despite long waits for some things. 

"I'm sure I will go again, maybe again and again," said Wang, a buyer for a Shanghai food chain. "I'll bring my kids and relatives from my hometown." 

Chinese are not cutting back on tourism despite the weak economy, said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research in Shanghai. 

"They are still spending on experiences and on their kids," Rein said. "It's going to be a huge success. Everybody in China who has a kid or a grandkid is going to want to go to Shanghai Disney."... 

In the Shanghai park, Disney needs its Chinese partner's approval to change restaurant prices and other management details. 

"They are hamstrung in a lot of areas," said Rein. But still, he said, Shanghai Disneyland "is far above anything else in China."

More at AP.

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Disney might win in China - James Roy

James Roy

Chinese did not grow up with Mickey Mouse and Snow White, but American content might still do very well in China, says retail analyst James Roy. Even when the government prefers Chinese myths over US imperials, he tells the International Business Times.

The International Business Times:

Conservative nationalists may have called for Chinese people to shun an attraction that remains deeply based on American culture. But with Disney, Pixar and Marvel movies highly popular in China, experts say it is precisely Disney’s original American content and long history that give it the upper hand over Chinese attractions. 

“With [its] original famous characters, Disney has a very strong [draw,]” said James Roy, principal of Shanghai-based China Market Research. “Wanda is local and may be more accessible and moderately priced — but it’s a property company getting into the business, it lacks IP and know-how." 

"Disney invented what they’re doing,” he said.

More in the International Business Times.

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Shanghai Disney: also engaging adults - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Shanghai Disney has appointed three honory ambassadors for its park, actress Sun Li, pianist Lang Lang and former NBA basketball player Yao Ming better promote itself as a family-friendly attraction. A sign it does not only want to attract kids, but also adults, says business analyst Ben Cavender to the China Daily.

The China Daily:

Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group, said the three ambassadors offered just the right image for Disney, as the resort is trying to appeal to both kids and adults. 

"They are a good mix, from musical, cultural and sports backgrounds, and give people a clear idea of what is likely to be offered at the new site."

More in the China Daily.

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Disney link gives Uniqlo an extra advantage - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender[/caption] Japan´s fashion brand Uniqlo is already leading in the China market over its Western competitors, and its link with Disney might give it an extra advantage, says retail analyst Ben Cavender in MarketWatch.

Market Watch:

The partnership (with Disney) is global, but an initial focus is China, where Disney's first theme park is set to open next year in Shanghai. Uniqlo's largest store world-wide is in Shanghai, and an entire floor is being revamped to feature the Disney items. 

"It allows [Disney] to project their brand as a fashion brand rather than primarily as a kids' brand," said Ben Cavender, a principal at Shanghai-based consultancy China Market Research. 

Research firm Euromonitor International says Uniqlo leads Western rivals such as Industria de Diseño Textil SA's Zara chain, Hennes & Mauritz AB's H&M and Gap Inc. in apparel and footwear market share in China, though it trails Danish retailer Bestseller A/S and sportswear companies Nike Inc. and Adidas AG.

More in the Market Watch.

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Walt Disney tries to regain its China market - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Walt Disney is not only opening an entertainment park in Shanghai, but also on Wednesday the biggest retail operation ever, wit 2,000 products on 860 square meters. The company is trying to win the China market, that was dominated by counterfeits, says retail analyst Ben Cavender in the China Daily.

The China Daily:

Ben Cavender, an analyst at China Market Research Group, said: "Disney is very concerned about branding and about developing its image in China." 

He said operating a flagship store selling merchandise is both a way to market its theme park but also of retaking control of its merchandise and control quality in the country. 

Cavender said the company had been working on developing a retail presence in China for some time but ultimately it has to deal with what has become a persistent counterfeiting problem, and the perception that its product prices are high. 

Only by controlling its retail experience and ensuring product quality can the company entice consumers to spend, he said. 

Another issue facing Disney in China, he said, is its prices in the mainland compared to Japan. 

"The company thinks the market can bear these prices, but we are still to see how sales go over a longer period of time to see if this proves the case," he said.

More in the China Daily.

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Shanghai Disney needs to be huge - Shaun Rein

Hong Kong: too small via Wikipedia

The new-to-built Shanghai Disney park should learn from the mistakes that have been made in the Hong Kong park, says Shaun Rein in Reuters. First, size matters.

Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research said the problem with the Hong Kong park is that it is too small and lacks rides. Given that the average Chinese person did not grow up watching Disney characters such as Cinderella, the characters also lacked emotional resonance with visitors.
"The Hong Kong Disneyland didn't seem like it had size and the Chinese like the biggest of everything," he said, adding that his primary worry is that the Shanghai Disneyland would not be big enough. Disney's third park in Asia is located in Tokyo.
Hong Kong Disneyland is undergoing expansion that will increase its size by 25 percent. It drew 5.2 million visitors in 2010 and more than 40 percent were from the mainland.

Image by Fantake via Flickr

"Everybody in China is waiting for Disney to come here... It's an event that everybody is just so excited for it to happen and so if it doesn't match expectations, it will make people upset," Rein said.

More in Reuters

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