The corona crisis: too little, too late

 Dutch PM Mark Rutte (left)
 after he announced handshakes would be off-limits.

The medical magazine The Lancet was one of the first Western media to point out the rest of the world could learn from the way China had dealt with the corona crisis. The severe lock-down of Wuhan and Hubei province, and the extended deployment of medics from the rest of China, was then still seen as too draconian to be used on other parts of the world.

Now Italy is in a lock-down and medical care in Northern parts are in crisis, while the rest of Europe looks surprised. "They are in a crisis," said a shaken Dutch doctor on Dutch TV last night, after he made a phone call to a colleague in Milan to ask how they were doing. Displaying confidence in your own capabilities sometimes becomes a handicap.

Virologists in China now admit Wuhan was too late to take their drastic measure and would have saved halved the number of corona patients and related deaths if they had locked down the city five days earlier. But despite those experiences in China, the rest of the world is complacent about the arrival of the virus and resist measures that would stop the virus from spreading.

"Do not shake hands," is the most drastic solution of the rest of Europe, while there is no sign medics of the rest of Europe are rushing to help Italy to contain the current crisis.  It might be too little, too late. Learning from China could have been a good idea.

Italy: the new Wuhan in the coronavirus crisis

China, with the exception of Hubei province, might be getting back to normal, the rest of the world is still bracing for a further outbreak of the coronavirus. Northern Italy shows remarkable similarities with the early weeks of the crisis in Wuhan: cramped medical facilities, expanding quarantine measure to stop the spread of the virus, and much uncertainty in countries and regions that still try to control the crisis. In China numbers of new patients are dropping, so - unless you might distrust those figures - its heavy-handed approach seems to be working at this list. But global stress on international economic relations seem far from over.

With all the justified criticism on the way China dealt the with coronavirus in the early weeks, the country did make some right choices later in the crisis as containment of the health issues was more important than keeping up the economy. More surprising it is that countries with a more developed health care system like Italy seem utterly unprepared for a major outbreak of the virus. Even a very solid country like Switzerland sees the number of coronavirus patients going up fast. Other European countries and the US seem to be bracing for the march of the coronavirus and still have to prove they can follow the lead of China, who was able to limit the major outbreak to one province. We did get some messages from some of our speakers who suggest their expertise in this field could generate some demand from clients outside China, but to be honest, those insights might be too late for countries and companies who have not yet been taking precautions for a major outbreak of the virus in their region or industry. And while the delayed containers from China have started their journey to the rest of the world, it is still unclear what situation they might meet at the receiving end of their ride. Airline companies seem to have no plan to resume cancelled flights, as demand is still very low.

For those we are preparing for a life after the crisis, we are happy to share our insights for your event, conference or company meeting.
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Government plays a number-game on covid-19 patients - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

China's Hubei province shocked the world as the number of confirmed covid-19 patients spiked because it started to use different way to diagnose patients. Political analyst Victor Shih sees it as a proof that the government is using different sets of tools to manipulate the number of patients and deaths, he tells to Reuters.

Reuters:

The sudden jump in new cases raises questions about China’s commitment to transparency, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese politics at the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego. 

“The adjustment of the data today proved without doubt that they have had two sets of numbers for confirmed infected all along,” he said. “If that were not the case, the government could not have added so many new cases in one day.” 

“A very disturbing aspect of today’s new numbers is that the vast majority of new cases accrued to Wuhan, but what if the rest of Hubei Province still did not adjust their reporting methods?” 

Hubei had previously only allowed infection to be confirmed by RNA tests, which can take days to process and delay treatment. RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries genetic information allowing for identification of organisms like viruses. 

Using CT scans that reveal lung infection would help patients receive treatment as soon as possible and improve their chances of recovery, the commission said.

More in Reuters.

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