Why I don’t miss the premier’s annual press conference – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

In a surprise move, China canceled the annual press conference of the country’s premier. But long-term correspondent and author Ian Johnson explains in the VOA why he thinks the foreign correspondents stopped looking forward to the event.

VOA:

Starting in 1993, Chinese premiers have typically used the annual event as an opportunity to field wide-ranging questions from Chinese and foreign journalists. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, when China was opening its economy to the rest of the world, it had actively sought to elucidate its politics and policies in a bid to attract foreign investment and boost trade.

Ian Johnson, a senior fellow for Chinese studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, who worked in China as a journalist from 1994 to 2001, said that foreign journalists at that time could use the press conferences to ask questions freely.

Later, “it went from being a potential source of information to becoming an empty exercise in propaganda,” he said. “By the end of the 2010s, it had become useless in terms of getting information. It’s just scripted.”

More in the VOA.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers request form.

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Perspective on China’s financial reform – Winston Ma

 

Winston Wenyan Ma

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) will this week approve a significant reform of its financial institutions. Financial analyst Winston Ma looks at the background of this sweeping shift, according to Reuters.

Reuters:

Under the new set-up, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) will be abolished, with its responsibilities moved to the new administration along with certain functions of the central bank and securities regulator.

As part of the wider government revamp, staff numbers at central level state institutions will be cut by 5%.

“The overhaul of financial regulation framework reflects the new focus on ‘dual circulation’ – both domestic and global circulation of the economy – and ‘uniform national markets’,” said Winston Ma, an adjunct professor at New York University law school.

“Going forward, different financing markets – equity, debt, and insurance – are set to be regulated in a more holistic way, and at the same time financial markets regulation and industry policy-making are more integrated than before,” he said.

The legislature will vote on the institutional reform plan on Friday.

More at Reuters.

Winston Ma is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China’s modest economic ambitions – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China limited its GDP growth for 2023 to a modest 5 percent at the opening of the National People’s Congress this weekend. Political analyst Victor Shih explains the background of this lower-than-expected ambition in the Guardian.

The Guardian:

[Premier] Li [Keqiang] began the speech saying Covid-19 and other domestic and international factors had affected the country’s economy “beyond our expectations”.

He announced the government would aim to create about 12m urban jobs, but left room to move with unemployment rates – keeping the urban target at 5.5%, which it was most recently reported as being in December.

Prof Victor Shih at the University of California, San Diego, told the Guardian the targets were “not overly ambitious”, and allowed the government and its incoming new premier a potential “easy victory”.

“They don’t call for any massive stimulus, and that partly stems from a recognition that exports – a main engine of growth for China’s economy in the last three years – will likely not be so strong this coming year,” he said.

The speech also pledged to resolve housing issues for young people, improve welfare provisions to elderly people and “improve the birth support system”. In recent weeks, the CCP has unveiled a number of policies that aim to reverse the declining birthrate by encouraging people to have more children.

Shih said welfare increases and stimulating consumption – another focus of Li’s speech – would require sizeable government funding.

“So a lot of this wording sounds to me like an empty promise in a sense, because it’s unclear where the money would come from unless growth miraculously comes in way beyond expectations.”

More in the Guardian.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Is China killing the Hong Kong goose with the golden eggs? - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

Former US President Clinton's assistant trade representative Harry Broadman fears China might be killing its Hong Kong goose with the golden eggs. He also sees not providing data on the leadership views on economic growth is foolish, he tells at Bloomberg.

Harry Broadman is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (virtual) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the economic fallout of the cornovirus crisis? Do check out this list.

Mixed messages from a messy Corona front

Economic damage to China and the global economy has been limited up to now as two weeks in the Coronavirus crisis were anyway a holiday, and a week extension was doable. Apart from the consumption industries who go a firm hit during lunar festival, expectations were high most of the manufacturing and services would resume on February 10, although our event industry was expected to see longer delays as international flights, traffic and other operations need likely months to recover.

Most of the decision-making seems to be back at provincial or even local level. That makes sense as differences between regions can be huge, but it is also hard to predicts what might be happening when in the near future. But the spread of the virus does not snow signs of abating, and different provincial governments give mixed messages on a longer extension of the compulsory holidays.

Most schools have been closed till March 1, while the rest of economic activities have been delayed till February 17 or March 1. State-media report workers trickling back to work, but at this stage an extension of another few weeks might hurt the recovery of China's economic system and induce damage to the global supply chain. Even worse: the coronavirus seems to be spreading from other provinces and countries, including Singapore, moving into new generations of contamination. 

Very soon the central government has to decide what is going to happen to the two highly symbolic political meetings of March in Beijing, the gathering of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and National People's Congress (NPC). 

At the China Speakers Bureau, we brace for a longer standstill, but we are ready to help you for China-related events outside China, and other activities that do not require large gatherings or travel inside China. Do get in touch if you want to discuss your event.

The wealthy at China´s legislature - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

China´s lawmakers are preparing for their annual sessions of the advisory CPPCC and the National People´s Congress. Among them a large amount of influential business people. Political analyst Victor Shih explains the interaction between business and politics in China in the New York Times.

The New York Times:

A seat on one of the two bodies is highly desirable, not because the positions are powerful, but because being a delegate provides access to the highest echelons of the party and the government. It is also a clear sign to potential business partners and rivals of political clout.

Membership in either body can also provide wealthy Chinese with protection from government actions that could hurt their businesses — something that wealthy Americans can achieve by hiring lobbyists, lawyers and public relations consultants — said Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego, who studies the confluence of finance and politics in China.

Because the two Chinese bodies have “many positions where businesspeople can legitimately obtain such protection, the wealthy business elite use their influence to obtain positions in these bodies,” Mr. Shih said.

Among the delegates who will convene at the Great Hall of the People this week are some of the most famous names in corporate China, including Pony Ma, chief executive of Tencent Holdings; and Robin Li, chief executive of the Google rival Baidu Inc. The Hurun list also includes some Hong Kong tycoons who are members, among them Victor Li, the son of Li Ka-shing, the chairman of Cheung Kong Holdings. Hong Kong, part of China since 1997, sends delegates to Beijing every March for the meeting.

More in the New York Times.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.

We summarized our take on China´s major trends for 2015. Click here for an overview.

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The rising wealth of China's law makers - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

The 70 richest members of the National People's Congress, China's legislative body, collected more wealth than their US brethren, discovered Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and managing director of Hurun, a Shanghai research body focusing on China's rich, according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg:

Hurun, a Shanghai-based publisher of magazines targeted at the Chinese luxury consumer, uses publicly available information such as corporate filings to compile its annual list of the richest people in China. It then cross-checks that data with the government’s list of NPC members. 

Zong Qinghou, chairman of beverage-maker Hangzhou Wahaha Group (HWGZ) and China’s second-richest person, with a family fortune of 68 billion yuan, is a member. So is Wu Yajun, chairwoman of Beijing-based Longfor Properties (LHREZ) Co. She has family wealth of 42 billion yuan, according to the Hurun Report. 

Former President Jiang Zemin pushed for the inclusion of wealthy private entrepreneurs into the Communist Party a decade ago. Now they have regular access to top party leaders who are also NPC members. 

The third-richest person in the NPC, auto-parts magnate Lu Guanqiu, traveled with Vice President Xi Jinping to the U.S. during his official visit this month, attending a meeting with Vice President Joseph Biden and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner in Washington on Feb. 14... 

The wealth of the top 2 percent of NPC delegates rose 13 percent in the 2011 Hurun list following a 14.3 percent fall in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in 2010 and a further 21.7 percent drop last year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 20 percent in 2011 and the Shenzhen Composite fell 33 percent in the same period. 

The wealthiest member of the U.S. Congress is Representative Darrell Issa, the California Republican who had a maximum wealth of $700.9 million in 2010, according to the center. If he were in China’s NPC, he would be ranked 40th. Per capita income in China is about one-sixth the U.S. level when adjusted for differences in purchasing power...

More in Bloomberg.

Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

More on Rupert Hoogewerf and China's wealthy at Storify.  

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March 13 cut-off date for new tax law - official

Legislator Cai Qiaoping slashed hope today that the new tax law, ending preferential treatment for foreign companies, would only start at the end of the year. The cut-off date is 13 March, she confirmed, and foreign companies registered in China after that date would no longer be eligible for the preferential treatment. For older companies there is a grandfathering clause.
Cai spoke at the Asia CFO World, organized by Pearson in Shanghai. She is the director of the legislative department of the Budget Affair Commission of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Cai is probably also one of the main authors of the law.
It was good to see she was explaining the law and answering questions of an audience, greatly adding to the process of transparency.

Shen Aiqin

NPC delegate calls for nationwide CSR-criteria

NPC-delegate Shen Aiqin has called for a nationwide system of criteria for Corporate Social Responsibility, reports China CSR. She is the chairperson of the board of the Wensli Group, a silk company in Zhejiang Province and one of the more wealthy women in China.

Corporate social responsibility has become a key topic for the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference this year. Shen Aiqin says that many problems in China are related to corporate behavior such as tax dodging, environmental destruction, loan defaults and food safety accidents. One of the key elements for these problems is the lack of a unified criterion for corporations to fulfill their social responsibility.

We are just in the middle of discussions of who to focus on inthe our upcoming Speakers' Bureau. This is the kind of people I would love to have on board.