How religion links to China's outbound investments - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Religion in China is on the rise, shows journalist Ian Johnson in his book The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao. China's outbound investments in the One Road, One Belt (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program illustrate that change in China's leaderships' approach to religion and image-building at home and abroad, he says to Indepthnews.net.

Indepthnews.net

Against this background, Chinese President Xi Jinping's One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), unveiled in 2013, has provided the countries of the wider region with a new challenge as well as a unique opportunity to fast track their economies along the path to development. An investment bonanza is being made available under the BRI, especially for the countries along the ancient Maritime Silk Road. 

Coupled with the investment-driven BRI, China has also subtly begun to underline its cultural and religious links in the wider region. A soft power caress of the region! According to Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China, President Xi Jinping has embraced religious faith as part of his "Chinese Dream" and the "Belt and Road Initiative". The nominally atheist Chinese Communist Party has now recognised that religion in Chinese history was a powerful tool in domestic governance and international diplomacy. For Xi's "rejuvenation" of the Chinese nation and national culture after the "Century of Humiliation", this mix of faith and politics constitutes a "re-imagining of the political-religious state that once ruled China". 

When Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun, was head of the party's religious work beginning in 1980, China's Central Committee issued the famous Document 19 warning party members against banning religious pursuits because it would isolate the Chinese people. Ever since, China has been restoring places of worship destroyed in the Cultural Revolution.

More in Indepthnews.net

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One Belt, One Road: a debt trap? - Andy Mok

Andy Mok

Western media have been portraying China's massive investment program One Belt, One Road (OBOR) or Belt Road Initiative (BRI) as a colonial trick to put developing countries into debt, and then seize their assets. Business analyst Andy Mok sees debt problems as a normal business risk in highly complicated investments on infrastructure, he tells at the state-owned CGTN.

Andy Mok:

Since its inception in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has garnered worldwide attention because of the scale and scope of its ambition. It has also become the target of criticism and suspicion from various quarters. 

Recently, the notion of “debt-trap diplomacy” has been prominently featured in mainstream Western media in an effort to mislead and tilt the opinion of elites lacking direct experience of the countries engaged in BRI projects and the nature of infrastructure investment against this initiative. 

Proponents of this idea claim that Chinese enterprises, at the behest of the government, encourage targeted countries to take on burdensome amounts of debt for BRI-related infrastructure, knowing full well that these debts are too big to be repaid. 

When the borrowing country inevitably encounters repayment problems, China can then seize the assets in question. According to these people, this is a deliberate strategy pursued by China to advance its geopolitical interests at the expense of debtor countries. 

Sri Lanka's Hambantota port project has become the poster child to illustrate China’s allegedly nefarious motives. For example, a New York Times article titled "How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port" describes the initial loan of 307 million US dollars to kick-start the project by China's Export-Import Bank in this way: “To obtain the loan, Sri Lanka was required to accept Beijing’s preferred company, China Harbor, as the port’s builder...That is a typical demand of China for its projects around the world, rather than allowing an open bidding process.” 

While the pejorative insinuation is clear, there are perhaps less conspiratorial explanations for such practices. Here's one: Infrastructure projects are extremely risky because they are highly complex and therefore many things can go wrong, resulting in delays and cost overruns.

More at CGTN.

Andy Mok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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China trade, investments to Eastern Europe still lagging - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

Eyes were on Sofia, Bulgaria, last week, as China's prime minister Li Keqiang tries to improve relations with Eastern Europe. Economist Sara Hsu puts Li's efforts into perspective as both trade and investments between China and Eastern Europe have been stagnant, compared to other countries in the One-Belt, One-Road initiative, she tells at CGTN. Also: the contagious relations with the EU.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request.

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The risks and benefits of One Belt, One Road - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

China's massive One-Belt, One-Road program has often been compared with the US Marshal plan after the Second World War. Keen to reap the benefits, risks for investors have also been highlighted, writes financial analyst Sara Hsu at Capital Watch. US investors like Marc Merlino, head of Citi's global subsidiaries group started to explore the field, she writes.

Sara Hsu:

While investing directly in poorly screened OBOR projects directly may not make sense, Marc Merlino, to his credit, noted that ventures surrounding major OBOR projects provide huge potential for returns. Merino states, "it's the opportunities for micro infrastructure beyond the core projects. All the knock-on effects ...." Certainly, after OBOR plans are carries out and the success of the construction can be more easily understood, investing in micro infrastructure could be quite profitable. 

Past evidence of profitability of backward linkages between major invested projects and the rest of the economy can be witnessed in China's special economic zones (SEZs). The clearest example of this is the city of Shenzhen, which was established as an SEZ in 1980, when it was a sleepy fishing village of 30,000 residents. Today, Shenzhen has become a megacity with a population of 12.53 million, and one of the most economically important cities in China. The city grew not only because of the influx of foreign direct investment, but also because of the growth of supporting industries. Many people who invested in the city early on have enjoyed significant profits as the city grew. 

Prudent analysis would require that investors financing micro projects surrounding an OBOR project should perform the due diligence that China's policy banks might have failed to undertake. This may require more resources to carry out than individual investors have, but is feasible for large institutional investors or lenders like Citi. In sum, investors need to proceed prudently with regard to OBOR projects and recognize that many of the projects have been insufficiently vetted. Plans surrounding visibly successful OBOR projects may bear fruit as long as investors focus on assessing and hedging against risks. After this work is done, one can be cautiously optimistic about such plans. 

More at Capital Watch.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the One-Belt, One-Road program? Do check out this list.  

The global implications of the China-Afrika engagement - Howard French

What are the global implications of the growing China-Afrika engagement, journalist Howard French, author of Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China's Push for Global Power wonders at the Delaware State University on April 12, 2018.

Howard French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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China "New Belt' program ready for renovation - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

When China's president Xi Jinping baptized his edition of the former silk road, he called it "One Belt, One Road". That idea and its name went against the idea of the old silk road, which was an organic set of trade routes, says Harry Broadman, former PwC Emerging Markets Investment Leader, in the Gulf News. The centralized approach by Beijing does not appeal to all stakeholders, he says.

Harry Broadman:

Only after criticism was voiced by a number of countries that Beijing was looking to sign up that the OBOR labelling conveyed China’s aim for regional domination did Xi ordered the “One” to be dropped. However, by the time the change was implemented damage has been done. In May 2017, Xi held a Belt-Road gala, but less than half of the 65 partnering countries were represented by heads of state. At the close of the summit, Xi issued a “joint” communique, but it was signed by only 30 countries. Not an overwhelming endorsement. 

And in the beginning of December 2017, Pakistan, Nepal and Myanmar announced they cancelled or sidelined three major Chinese hydroelectricity Belt-Road projects worth nearly $20 billion due to unfavourable financing terms or irregularities in the sponsoring firms’ irregularities. 

As China continues to roll out its Belt-Road program it would do well to work in full collaboration from the ground up with proposed partner countries.

More in the Gulf News. Harry Broadman is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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The debate on One Belt, One Road - Zhang Ying

Zhang Ying

The new Marshall Plan or a sneaky way China wants to conquer the world? The opinions on China's massive One Belt, One Road program go into both directions. RSM professor Zhang Ying summarizes both views on China's investment program that is changing the world, for Friends of Europe.

Zhang Ying:

The Eurasian Silk Road was developed over a thousand years ago, and then revived by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013 as a part of the country’s economic transition. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also called the New Silk Road and the One-Belt-One-Road, seems to have been widely accepted as an initiative to facilitate trade across the Eurasian continent, as well as geo-economic integration and global prosperity. 

However, it has been interpreted in various other ways. Two points of view stand out: There are those who view it as China’s latest strategy for boosting its slowing domestic economic growth. The others see it as a means to project China’s growing influence and an alternative to existing international geo-economic relationships. As such, the initiative has elicited respect, awe and enthusiasm among those who believe that it illustrates China’s visionary view of the future. But it has also raised questions over whether it is an altruistic contribution to the world, or just another plot by an egotistical “great power” to further its own self-interest. 

There are reasons for the concerns, just as there have been over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) promoted by the other “great power”, the United States. Some thought of the TPP as a beacon for global free trade, giving the economies of the Pacific Rim their own, well-deserved trading club. Others saw it as just another instrument for the US to align its Pacific Rim allies in an exclusive economic club. With the Trump administration’s unexpected withdrawal of the US from TPP, attention has shifted to the other forward-looking initiative Asian initiative, namely the BRI. As a result, China has been catapulted into the position of “thought leader” for a new world order. 

Those who criticise the BRI are opposed to change or motivated by populism rather than a vision of collective prosperity. However, over three years’ of BRI-related framework projects across the Eurasian continent, reality is beginning to sink in. Many countries have started to support BRI, because they see its tangible advantages, both in the short term and in the long run. Others continue to beat the drum against change. Another group is torn between believing in the benefits of the new vision but still fearing ramifications that they cannot fully grasp.

More in Friends of Europe.

Zhang Ying is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on One Road, One Belt at the China Speakers Bureau. Check out this list.

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The War for China's Wallets - Shaun Rein

The long-awaited third book by Shaun Rein The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order is now available on Amazon. After two earlier bestsellers, Shaun Rein now focuses on the fast-changing playing field for foreign companies to make their operation work in China.

From Amazon:

With Chinese-led initiatives such as One Belt One Road (OBOR) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) combined with uncertainty due to US shifts in policy and apparent commitments over the past decade, the stakes are high for companies looking to profit from the world's newest superpower. Post-financial crisis, China has emerged as the largest or second largest trading partner for most countries. It has become the second largest market for Fortune 500 companies like Starbucks, Apple, and Nike and drives growth for Hollywood and commodity products. Yet the profits come at a price for countries and companies alike, they must adhere to the political goals of Beijing or else face economic punishment or outright banishment. Using primary research from interviews with hundreds of business executives and government officials, The War for China's Wallet will help companies understand how to profit from China's outbound economic plans as well as a shifting consumer base that is increasingly nationalistic. The countries and companies that get it right will benefit from China's wallet but those that do not will lose out on the world's largest growth engine for the next two decades.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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One Belt, One Road: too big to succeed? - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

China's close to one trillion US dollar investment program One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is facing serious pitfalls that could stop it from succeeding, writes financial analyst Sara Hsu in the Huffington Post. Insufficient due diligence is just one of a range of potential barriers, she writes.

Sara Hsu:

The question, though, is if it will succeed. There appears to be insufficient due diligence in some cases, which carries political and financial risks. For example, work on the Colombo port project in Sri Lanka and a high-speed rail plan in Indonesia stalled due to local opposition. In other areas, like Gwadar in Pakistan, security is a major concern.

Projects funded by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank are more likely to be carefully weighed in terms of risk. By contrast, projects financed by the China Development Bank or the Export and Import Bank of China may undergo standard examination but, as part of an array of projects on the table, may be short-changed in full analysis and oversight. AIIB has provided $1.73 billion for nine Belt and Road projects. The overall figure for projects in the planning or implementation stages is $900 billion. 

The vast majority of funding for Belt and Road projects comes from the Export and Import Bank of China, China Development Bank and China’s commercial banks. China’s policy banks are overbooked: in 2015 alone, the China Development Bank said it had reserved $890 billion for over 900 projects. What is more, the Export-Import Bank of China stated at the beginning of 2016 that it had funded over 1,000 projects. How can these large development banks plan and oversee that many projects?

More in the Huffington Post.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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One Belt, One Road needs much more debate - Zhang Ying

Zhang Ying

President Xi Jinping has embarked into a prestigious outbound investment program, One Belt, One Road (OBOR) worth trillions of US dollars. While the West has received the plan reluctantly positive, there is still much more debate needed at what it means for all participants, RSM business professor Zhang Ying explains in the EUReporter.

Zhang Ying:

Having participated in many forums about OBOR, my general observation is: for the West, OBOR is commonly accepted as a great idea. but the topic invokes lots of questions. Nobody seems to grasp that OBOR can function only as a joint project of all the participants involved. OBOR as an initiative proposed by China, is a global and a century project for helping to rebuild a better world order, however the ownership of OBOR rest with all the involved participants and not with China alone. This becomes evident when you look at the OBOR sister-project —- AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). This project has always been labeled a “crowdfunding, crowd-owned” project. 

Responding to such a concern, I believe that besides the East needs more patient and effort to help the West understand OBOR, including its past evidence, current reality, and the proposed prosperity of the future, more stakeholders need to join, and support more proactively the design of the project. My sense is that most of the audience at current is still confused about the rationale behind it, and couldn’t tell the difference between OBOR economic-social-environment formula and the current ones that each has been used to deal with for the current order of the world; meaning that different parties hold different calculations for OBOR, either desperate to attract Chinese investment, or hostile blaming unbalanced trade with China. Objectively speaking: All of these attitudes are not fact-respecting, with three arguments: Firstly, as for the world order in the past, if accepting the principle of competitive advantage, this opinion shouldn’t be supported, since respecting the rationale of competitive advantage and acknowledging the consequence of competitive advantage for each participants is the condition of free-market market; Secondly, as for the world order in the future, accepting the drive of the change and the consequences of the world order revision is the condition as well. Third, as for the current, accepting emerging countries such as China coming back (or saying catching up) and even leading up especially in terms of economy is the condition for the next round of preparation for globally inclusive growth.

More at the EUReporter.

Zhang Ying is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on China's outbound investments? Do check out this list.  

Getting One Belt, One Road right is a tough job - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

Xi Jinping's One Belt, One Road initiative has raised many voices, inside China rather positive, outside China often sceptical. Financial analyst Sara Hsu looks at some details of the multiple trillions US dollar project and feels getting it right might be tough, whatever side you are on as financial checks and balances are lacking, she writes in the Huffington Post.

Sara Hsu:

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s massive “One Belt, One Road” project is more expansive and inclusive than any other modern undertaking by a single country. If successful, it could transform the face of the developing world. But the endeavor has many potential pitfalls.

The Belt and Road initiative covers a huge part of the world and promises to thrust China into the center of the globalization process. Developing countries that lack infrastructure can theoretically obtain much-needed roads, railways and ports. The Belt and Road initiative could represent the most significant coordinated development undertaking in history.

The question, though, is if it will succeed. There appears to be insufficient due diligence in some cases, which carries political and financial risks. For example, work on the Colombo port project in Sri Lanka and a high-speed rail plan in Indonesia stalled due to local opposition. In other areas, like Gwadar in Pakistan, security is a major concern.

Projects funded by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank are more likely to be carefully weighed in terms of risk. By contrast, projects financed by the China Development Bank or the Export and Import Bank of China may undergo standard examination but, as part of an array of projects on the table, may be short-changed in full analysis and oversight... The presence of risks does not mean that planned projects should be abandoned. However, investment could be more beneficial if the pace of implementation is slowed down and carefully overseen. Using a more cautious approach to political and financial risks during the planning stage can help ensure that Belt and Road projects come to fruition.

More in the Huffington Post.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the One Belt, One Road initiative at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list  

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China: the land of the soft openings - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Western analysts often miss the point, when they look at the way China conducts business, says China watcher Andrew Batson at his weblog, and he points at an interesting aside in Ian Johnson's book The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao , when he writes about soft openings in China. Case in point: comments on China's One-Belt, One-Road initiative. Batson: " It’s already clear it’s the China book of the year."

Ian Johnson:

China is the land of soft openings: projects are first announced to big fanfare, structures erected as declarations of intent, and only then filled with content. In this sense, developing a new ideology to unify China is similar to building a shopping mall: the deal is publicized, the building goes up, a few stores open, but only years later are all the shops and restaurants open for business, and only after a number of anchor tenants have gone bankrupt. This makeshift model differs from how Westerns like to see projects–envisioned and planned thoroughly, then completed according to that design. But it has its own logic. If viable, the project goes ahead; if not, backing out is easier.

More at Andrew Batson's weblog.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

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One Belt, One Road initiative needs a more positive take - Kaiser Kuo

Kaiser Kuo

Western analysts have been criticizing China's One Belt, One Road initiative with loads of negative comments. Time to take a more positive approach, says China veteran and rock star Kaiser Kuo, after discussing the issue with many former US leaders, at SupChina. 

Kaiser Kuo:

There are, of course, reasons for skepticism. But there’s no danger, at least among pundits in the West, that anyone has been so beguiled by Xi Jinping’s grand plan that they believe it to be rooted in altruism. 

Some fret that the debt burden on recipient countries will be crippling. Others see China’s inroads as the thin edge of a neocolonial wedge. Most agree that the Belt and Road brand — and it is, very clearly, a kind of branding exercise — is so capacious that it’s nearly meaningless, and that local officials and SOE bosses can slap the B&R label on any old project. And many Chinese are wary of this largesse when China itself hasn’t even joined the ranks of middle-income countries on a per capita basis. And then there’s the propaganda around the initiative, most of which has been downright silly, some of it risibly so (see this compilation of videos for a few examples). 

Skepticism is healthy, until you pile on so much of it that any fair appraisal becomes impossible. My worry is that the U.S. is nearing that point. Already, we’ve blundered in our approach to what might be the most important of the Belt and Road initiatives: the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). A number of our recent guests on Sinica, including Nye, former U.S. trade representative Charlene Barshefsky, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton, and former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Susan Shirk, have all spoken of the U.S. effort to dissuade allies from joining AIIB as a mistake. Concerns over governance and lending standards may have been well founded, but the Obama administration’s negativity toward AIIB foreclosed a chance for constructive participation and proved to be a diplomatic embarrassment. 

In a recent interview with Nathan Gardels of The World Post, the former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani addressed the inevitability of an end to American primacy, urging the U.S. to accept its eventual fate with more grace than it’s shown, and to “abandon its destructive policies of unilateralism and start a new era of constructive policies of multilateralism.” Xi Jinping’s signature initiative offers an opportunity for just such multilateralism. “If the U.S. wants to be really cunning,” Mahbubani said, “it should seize the many business opportunities that the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative will eventually offer. Pragmatism and common sense should replace ideology and pride in American thinking of China.” 

Sure, Belt and Road might not end up being a “Marshall Plan without a war,” as one analyst called it. Marshall Plan comparisons, though, are ubiquitous — and they are not coming from China. Indeed, China’s official Xinhua News Agency has bluntly rejected the comparison, noting that the Marshall Plan was about Cold War–era containment of Soviet power, whereas China’s Belt and Road initiative “aims at achieving the common development of all countries rather than seeking spheres of political influence.” Perhaps those who have praised Belt and Road as an ingenious way for China’s bloated SOEs to fob off their excess capacity are underestimating the scale of overcapacity, or overestimating Asia’s appetite for new infrastructure. It’s possible, if not indeed likely, that some of the many projects lumped under Belt and Road may prove to be costly boondoggles. 

With Charles Kindleberger’s warning firmly in mind, the best response on the part of the U.S. and its allies should be neither to sneer nor to blithely cheer, but to offer constructive guidance and encouragement — and to make sure that, to the highest extent possible, all the roads, rail lines, ports, and pipelines do indeed function as public goods. 

Belt and Road would have fared better, as my colleague Jeremy has pointed out, under its original moniker — the “New Silk Road.” That name would have carried a positive historical valence that evokes in particular a historical period from which contemporary China could take real inspiration: the Tang dynasty. Ask any educated Chinese person about that dynasty — one that likely ranks at or near the top of the list of great epochs of Chinese history — and they’ll tell you that the reason for the Tang’s greatness was its openness and cosmopolitanism. Tang is a way for Chinese to reconcile national greatness with internationalism, with globalization. I’m told that this formulation worked for a certain Chinese heavy metal band. 

Now if there were only such a period that American leaders could invoke…

More at SupChina.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on China's outbound investments? Do check out this list.    

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One-Belt, One-Road changes China´s position in the world - Andy Mok

Andy Mok

The aspirations of president Xi Jinping to expand into the world with his One-Belt, One-Road (OBOR) initiative can only be compared with president John F. Kennedy´s plan to put a man on the moon, tells VC Andy Mok. His grand and ambitious goal includes 70% of the world´s economy and turns China´s traditional focus from the US to Europe, Russia and Iran.

Andy Mok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more experts on China´s outbound investments? Do check out this list.