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| Ian Johnson |
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| Ian Johnson |
With roughly 70 percent of airspace controlled by the military (versus 20 percent in the United States), commercial aircraft flying in China are limited to narrow tunnels in the sky. This restricts options for departure and arrival routing, cutting the number of takeoffs and landings that airports can handle.
Beijing Capital, for example, was the world’s second-busiest airport based on passenger volume in 2017, but it ranked fifth based on takeoffs and landings, nearly a third fewer than the world leader, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.
The lack of airspace is also a key reason delays are so common in China. Last year, flight delays increased 50 percent, with only 71 percent of flights taking off on time, according to government statistics. That’s helped push Chinese airlines to the bottom of punctuality rankings, with one study ranking three Chinese airlines as the worst among 20 large-scale carriers.
Although aviation authorities blame the weather for half of the delays, Mr. Guo of Q&A Consulting said the underlying cause was the military-induced lack of airspace.
When a corridor is blocked by a thunderstorm, for example, Chinese flight controllers often cannot reroute an airplane, because it would have to enter military airspace. That causes planes to sit on the ground or fly holding patterns when in other countries they could land or take off.
“The congestion takes place in the sky because the military only allows for a certain number of tunnels,” Mr. Guo said. “If that doesn’t change, the ground infrastructure needs to be expanded.”
The new airport will help by initially opening four, then up to eight, new runways in the suburb of Daxing, 41 miles southwest of Beijing Capital. The number of air corridors available for civilian use stays the same, but the new runways will provide airlines with more ways to gain access to this limited airspace, allowing the Beijing area to facilitate more flights.More at the New York Times.
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| Wendell Minnick |
China’s military is expanding its capabilities for an amphibious assault on the self-ruled island of Taiwan. This, according to the newly released “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” which is issued by the Pentagon each year as mandated by the US Congress.
China now has two amphibious mechanized infantry divisions, one amphibious armor brigade, 11 army aviation brigades and regiments, three Airborne divisions, and two Marine brigades. For the navy, new ships include 30 tank landing ships/amphibious transport docks, 22 medium landing ships, and China has signed significant purchase contracts with Ukraine for assault hovercraft.
China’s investments in its amphibious ship force signal China’s intent to develop an expeditionary and over-the-horizon amphibious assault capability, said the report. “Since 2005, China has built three large Yuzhao-class (Type 071) amphibious transport docks with a fourth soon to enter service, providing considerably greater and more flexible capability for ‘far seas’ operations than the older landing ships.” The Yuzhao can carry up to four of the new Yuyi-class, air-cushion medium landing craft and four or more helicopters, as well as armored vehicles and marines for long-distance deployments.
Additional Yuzhao construction is expected to continue, as is a follow-on amphibious assault ship that is not only larger, but also incorporates a full flight deck for helicopters. Two Yuting II-class tank landing ships (LST) are currently being built to replace older LST units that are reaching the end of their service lives.
The Pentagon report states that Chinese writings indicate there are different operational concepts for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, but the most prominent of these is the Joint Island Landing Campaign, which envisions a complex operation relying on coordinated, interlocking campaigns for logistics, air, naval support and electronic warfare. “The objective would be to break through or circumvent shore defenses, establish and build a beachhead, transport personnel and materiel to designated landing sites in the north or south of Taiwan’s western coastline, and launch attacks to seize and to occupy key targets or the entire island.”More in Defense News.
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| Wendell Minnick |
Over the past several years, Taiwan military officers have sold China information on the E-2K Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and PAC-2 anti-ballistic missile systems, Hawk air defense missile system, and the Raytheon Palm IR-500 radiometric infrared camera. Taiwan defense sources said that on the Taiwan side, China has collected all the data needed to compromise the Po Sheng C4I upgrade program and the Anyu-4 air defense network upgrade program, Shuan-Ji Plan (electronic warfare technology project), and the Wan Chien (Ten Thousand Swords) joint standoff weapon.
A common anecdote used by the Western media suggests China uses a “grains of sand” or “mosaic” approach to collecting intelligence. That is, China collects intelligence from a broad effort by low-level, often amateur, sources to form an overall picture. However, Chinese efforts in Taiwan indicate otherwise.More in Defense News.
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| Wendell Minnick |
China’s new CX-1 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile is ready for export to America’s friends and foes alike, with potential markets including Iran, Pakistan and African and South American countries.
On display at the recent Airshow China in Zhuhai, the missile resembles India’s BrahMos cruise missile with a large intake in the nose, referred to as the “axial symmetrical inlet” in the brochure. However, that appears to be the only similarity, according to Chinese-language media outlets, which mention differences in wing, guidance vanes and jet vanes of the two missiles...
At speeds of Mach 3, the missile can strike a target within a circular error probability of 20 meters, according to the display. Warheads include a unitary semi-armor-piercing warhead for ships and a unitary fragmentation-blast warhead and unitary penetration warhead for land attack.
Each road-mobile launcher carries two missiles. When attacking a slow target, such as a ship, the missile can make a terminal horizontal attack by combining high and low cruise and employ the compound guidance of a strap-down inertial measurement unit and active radar seeker.
A land-based road-mobile unit would consist of one command vehicle, one integrated support vehicle, three launching vehicles, three transporter-loader vehicle and 12 canisters for two-wave attacks.
The CX-1 missile |
| Tom Doctoroff |
The Communist Party is ramping up the country's military capabilities -- the Economist estimates that the PRC's spending will exceed America's by the middle of the next decade -- but China will never invade other countries or confront the military supremacy of the United States. Its primary concern is, and always has been, defense, an understandable one given its history. For a credible analysis of China's modern fighting force, scour Pentagon briefings. But to get a sense of the Beijing's pacifist instincts, come for a visit.More in The Huffington Post
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| Xi Jinping |
Vice President Xi Jinping is expected to replace Hu Jintao as the CCP secretary general and chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission (CMC).
"This transition period will also be highlighted by a significant turnover in the composition of the CMC leadership with the majority of the 10-member panel to retire," said Zhang Xiao-ming, a China specialist at the U.S. Air War College.
Xi, who is also the vice chairman of the CMC, is seen as a pragmatist who will "accelerate the cultivation of elite personnel, emphasize basic military training, put forth new direction of cadre's ethics construction, and advance military transformation based on science and technology development," said Fu Li-Wen, a researcher at the ICCS.
Xi is known for his hardline and outspoken style, Fu said. Xi once told an expatriate group of Chinese "compatriots" in Mexico "there are a few foreigners, with full bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country."
The CMC reshuffle will also mean a turnover of the directorship of the four general departments: General Staff, General Political, General Logistic and General Armament. This will include changes in the deputy directors and other subordinate leaders, Zhang said. The new crop of leaders will also be more tech-savvy with more hands-on experience in the military modernization process, he said.
The next leaders of the CMC will be "younger, better educated and mission capable," said Ji You, a specialist on the Chinese military at the University of New South Wales.
"The overwhelming majority of them have served in combat units and climbed through 'steps,'" he said. This is also a leadership that rode the wave of a fivefold increase in the defense budget over the past 15 years.
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| Wendell Minnick |
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| Wendell Minnick |
The report noted last January's announcement by General Electric and the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) that they would launch a joint venture for integrated avionics. It also noted several Boeing-AVIC moves, including April's announcement that the two would double the capacity of the Boeing Tianjin joint venture, which produces composite materials.
"One of the joint venture's customers is Xi'an Aviation Industry Corporation, which manufactures components for civil aircraft and produces aircraft, such as the JH-7A fighter-bomber and the H-6 bomber, for the Chinese military," the report said.
The report said China, which is looking at ways to prevent the U.S. military from using satellites, has a robust, largely military space program of its own: roughly about 70 satellites in orbit, all but 13 controlled by the military. By 2020, China will have its own 35-satellite global positioning system.
Four times in 2007 and 2008, unidentified hackers, possibly Chinese, gained control of two U.S. government earth observation satellites through a Norwegian ground station.More in Defense News.
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| Wendell Minnick |
Debate and mystery still surround the former Kuznetsov-class carrier. Procured by a Hong Kong travel agency in 1998 for $20 million, purportedly to serve as a casino in Macau, the Varyag has been the focus of debate among China watchers ever since it bypassed Macau for the Dalian Shipyard in northeast China in 2002. The Chinese-language media are still arguing over whether the vessel will be christened the Shi Lang, after the Ming-Qing Dynasty naval admiral who conquered Taiwan in 1681, or Liu Huaqing, the father of China's modern Navy. What is certain is that it will not be the last Chinese aircraft carrier. There are indicators, though anecdotal, that China is preparing to build up to three carriers at the Jiangnan Shipyard on Changxing Island in Shanghai. Job-wanted advertisements in local newspapers have dropped hints the work is for a carrier program,[Gary Li, an intelligence analyst for U.K.-based Exclusive Analysis] said. Li said one recent job advertisement for a heavy-lift vehicle contract said it sought "drivers to work on carrier project." There have also been reports by residents that "blonde foreigners," possibly Ukrainian engineers, have been seen living in a hotel near the shipyard. Observers must be careful not "to fall into the trap of using every bit of gossip from some dockside fruit seller as fact," he said. China's carrier program has become a "heavy rumor mill." With 11 aircraft carriers at its disposal, the U.S. has little to fear from China's carrier program. Even if China had several aircraft carriers, "I don't think it will reshape the strategic balance much in favor of China," said Zhuang Jianzhong, vice director of the Center for National Strategy Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.More in Defense News. Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
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| Wendell Minnick |
Meanwhile, the military in Taiwan may not be so keen on the local substitutes for US equipment, according to Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief with Defense News.More background in ATimes.
"The military wants US defense products," he said. "The Ministry of National Defense views these products as more reliable, since they've been tested in combat."
Image via WikipediaAIDC began the $590 million Hsiang Chan Project in 2009 to conduct midlife upgrades on 71 of the 126 IDFs still in operation. All of the upgrades are scheduled for completion and delivery by the end of 2012, said Kang Shiah, AIDC senior vice president.
The Air Force has an option to upgrade the remaining 55 IDFs if budgeting allows, he said. AIDC built 130 IDFs in the 1990s to replace aging F-104 Starfighters...
Also on display at the ceremony was a two-seat prototype of the IDF Goshawk. AIDC manufactured two C/D Goshawks but has no plans to mass-produce the fighter until the Air Force finds the budget to buy it, Kang said. Local analysts said the Goshawk build program could go forward if the U.S. fails to release new F-16s.
The U.S. is also has placed on hold a $4.5 billion upgrade program for Taiwan's F-16A/Bs, along with an F-16 fighter training program at Luke Air Force Base, Ariz.
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| Wendell Minnick |
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| Wendell Minnick |
Taiwan's requests for F-16C/Ds and an upgrade package for 146 aging F-16A/B fighters have been on hold since 2006 and 2009, respectively. The U.S. government blocked three earlier LoR attempts for C/Ds made between 2006 and 2007.More details in Defense News.
Pro-Taiwan groups in Washington are urging Taiwan to formally request the right to resubmit the LoR before the opportunity passes.
"They need to [resubmit] if they're going to take advantage of this window," said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council. "If they do nothing, the moment will pass."
Support for an F-16 sale has gained momentum over the past month as members of the U.S. Congress, Lockheed and pro-Taiwan lobby groups have been working in concert to push the White House to release the fighters.
"They have submitted an LoR on three occasions and had it rejected," said Mark Stokes, a former U.S. defense official, now with the Project 2049 Institute. He said this is one reason the U.S. and Taiwan should bring back the annual arms sales talks held between 1982 and 2001.
"At least Taiwan could make its requests formally" to the U.S. government, he said.
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| Wendell Minnick |
“China’s claims to ‘indisputable sovereignty’ over the South China Sea [have] no basis in International law, especially the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea,” said Carl Thayer, a regional maritime specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy. The most disturbing Chinese claim is a “nine-dash mark U-shaped map” that covers 80 percent of the South China Sea, he said.A list of the incidents:
Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie tried to calm fears over rising tensions during the 10th Shangri-La Dialogue, held here June 3-5 and sponsored by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, London.
Some 2011 South China Sea incidents:More details on his weblog.
Feb. 25: A Chinese frigate fired warning shots at three Filipino fishing boats near the Jackson atoll near Palawan Island, Philippines.
March 2: Two Chinese maritime patrol vessels threatened to ram a Philippine government energy research vessel, the M/V Venture, conducting a seismic survey in the Reed Bank area near Palawan Island.
May: China announces a unilateral fishing ban for the northern part of the South China Sea from May to August.
May: Vietnam alleges Chinese naval vessels fired on four Vietnamese fishing vessels near East London Reef and Cross Island.
May: Chinese vessels laid steel posts and a buoy in the Amy Douglas Bank, southwest of Reed Bank within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zones.
May 11: Two unidentified fighter jets, alleged to be Chinese, were sighted near Palawan Island.
May 23: Philippine President Benigno Aquino III warned Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie during his visit to Manila of a possible arms race if tensions worsened over South China Sea disputes.
May 26: Three Chinese state-operated Ocean Marine Surveillance vessels harassed the Binh Minh 02, a vessel owned by the oil company PetroVietnam, cutting a towed survey cable. The incident occurred within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
June 9: A Chinese fishing boat rammed a PetroVietnam vessel conducting an oil survey within Vietnam’s EEZ. It is the second Chinese attack on a Vietnamese PetroVietnam vessel in the past two weeks.
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| Jeremy Goldkorn |
There are some very talented hackers, who operate as individuals in China. On the other hand, bear in mind the nature of the alleged targets of the hacking campaign that does seem like an attempt to get information that would be of strategic importance to China's military or government.Listen to the full audio fragment at the Takeaway.org here.
Liang Guanglie via Wikipedia"I would call the gap big," he said. Liang acknowledged that China's military modernization has improved, but the "main battle equipment of our services ... is mainly second-generation weapons." China does not have a large arsenal of third-generation weapons, systems or platforms. "For example, the army is still being motorized, not mechanized," he said.Wendell Minnick on the PLA's presence at the conference:
After years of ignoring the Shangri-La Dialogue, China sent an unprecedented senior-level delegation. The annual conference is sponsored by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), officially known as the IISS Asia Security Summit, and includes the attendance of defense ministers from across the globe, including U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates.More in Defense News.
Liang said military-to-military relations with the U.S. were improving. The U.S. just concluded meetings in May with senior Chinese defense officials in Washington for the Security and Economic Dialogue, and the Pentagon hosted a separate visit by Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff, People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Suspected pirates via WikipediaBeijing has had security concerns over the sea lanes of communication. China is dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East. Potential choke points in the Malacca Strait and territorial disputes in the South China Sea have added to the concern. For the first time in China’s modern naval history, it has taken up anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden to ward off Somali pirates.More at Wendell Minnick's weblog.
Though an Arctic passage would do little to solve security concerns over oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, it would provide a shorter route for China’s exports to Europe. It is estimated that the maritime route between Asia and Europe could be reduced from 15,000 miles to less than 8,000 miles, Wang Kuan-Hsiung, a researcher at National Taiwan Normal University, said.
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| Wendell Minnick |
Wendell Minnick, a senior observer on Taiwan military affairs and Asia Bureau Chief for the authoritative Defense News, asked about the unnamed Hong Kong-based security consultant's statement, that the Obama administration would welcome a delay, replied that "This is correct, and agreed that "in this kind of atmosphere" Taiwan would have a tough time pushing for the release of F-16C/Ds and even for upgrades to the older F-16A/Bs.
"It doesn't help them when they plead for new toys then say they can't pay for last year's Christmas gifts. Kind of reminds me of US debt to China", Minnick joked.
He also pointed out that despite Deputy Minister of National Defense Yang's statement that his country within the last 30 years had never delayed payments for US arms sales, "They've been late on payments on different programs before due to budgeting issues, but eventually they [the US ]got their money.
Though Ma has made an effort of "never rocking the boat" and implementing "full consultation" with the U.S. on Cross-Strait discussions, the U.S. is still reluctant to provide Taiwan with new arms.More in Defense News.
In 2001, the Bush administration promised Taiwan eight diesel electric submarines, but the deal has been held up by a combination of political and manufacturing hurdles. Taiwan's request for 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52 fighters for $5.5 billion and a $4.5 billion upgrade package for 146 F-16A/B Block 20 fighters has been on hold since 2007 and 2009, respectively.
Part of the reason for the delays, analysts say, are punitive actions taken by Beijing following arms releases totaling $13 billion in 2008 and 2010. China ended military-to-military dialogue with the U.S. and threatened to retaliate economically after each release. The effort appears to be paying off. China and the U.S. just concluded the third Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Washington last week where China's Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Wendell Minnick by Fantake via FlickrA Taiwan defense source said there are initial plans to build 10 Swift Seas armed with anti-ship missiles. “We have already finished the research design and the contract design, and the bidding process will begin in 2012 with delivery in 2014,” he said. The vessels will be deployed in the Taiwan Strait to break a Chinese naval blockade or stop an invasion fleet, he said. ..
Local media reports have dubbed the Swift Sea vessel the “carrier-killer” in response to China’s planned deployment of its first aircraft carrier, the Ukrainian Varyag, expected to begin sea trials this summer. Beijing has not officially named the ship yet. Western guesses include Shi Lang, after the admiral who conquered Taiwan in 1681, and Liu Huaqing, after the father of China’s modern navy.More on Wendell Minnick's weblog.
However, the carrier will most likely be based in the South China Sea and not be deployed against Taiwan except off the east of the island during a conflict, said the Taiwan defense source.
