Prices luxury goods in China rise - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

The luxury consumer price index (CPI) went up 4.1% in the first five months of 2018, the highest rise since 2012, says Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, according to the Global Times. 

The Global Times:

Prices of luxury goods are increasing in China, an industry report showed, with the luxury consumer price index (CPI) surging by 4.1 percent so far in 2018, double the growth rate seen on the general CPI from January to June. 

The 4.1 percent luxury CPI increase is the highest growth rate since 2012, Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, was quoted as saying in a statement sent to the Global Times over the weekend. 

Luxury CPI is an index released by Hurun that measures the change in consumption prices every year regarding how much consumers pay for a total of 108 luxury goods and services, including properties, private healthcare and education, travel, weddings, watches, jewelry, accessories and skincare. 

Among the categories, high-end alcohol and tobacco lead the luxury CPI gains with an average price rise of 12 percent, followed by jewelry, accessories and skincare as well as leisure, with a growth rate of 7.2 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, according to the report. 

Meanwhile, jets and yachts as well as weddings bottomed the list with a price decline of 5.9 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.

More at the Global Times.

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Crackdown on corruption has some side-effects - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

While President Xi Jinping's crackdown on corruption is lauded by most, the campaign has some negative side-effects, says author Shaun Rein of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order in the South China Morning Post. Officials have become increasingly afraid to make larger decision because they fear a possible backlash, he says.

The South China Morning Post:

Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research and author of The War for China’s Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order, said Beijing’s crackdown was having a largely positive effect, albeit with two consequences. 

“Government officials are scared of green lighting bigger projects so business transactions have slowed,” he said. 

“Officials are scared of getting fingered for being corrupt so it is easier to keep their heads down and not approve anything.” 

“[And] in general the speed of business is slowing because of the bureaucracy and policies being implemented. For example, before one could bribe an official to get approvals for a real estate project. Now they have to follow a transparent bidding and approval system.” 

But it is not so much the catching of officials – Chinese or elsewhere – that frustrated Transparency International’s Salas, who called for better press freedom to cover and examine corruption cases. 

“Each country is different, so for example China has to do more beyond punishing some individuals,” he said. 

“It has to allow journalists and activists to raise their voices, while the US has to urgently control the money that flows to politics from big businesses, and so on.”

More in the South China Morning Post.

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Luxury is back on track - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

Austerity marked the luxury goods industry, triggered off by the anti-corruption drive by president Xi Jinping. But the growth figures are back on track, says Rupert Hoogewerf, based on research by his Hurun China Rich report, released on Thursday, he tells the China Daily. Purchases are back on the 2013 level.

The China Daily:

"There is always an inherent demand. For the past three years, (wealthy) people may not have been quite sure, because they didn't want to be too ostentatious," said Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and chairman of Hurun Report. 

"But now as the picture has cleared, their interest (in luxury) has risen back to the surface," he added. 

Apple, Cartier and Louis Vuitton remain the top three favorite brands among the wealthy, while Samsung for the first time drops out of the favored list. And Alipay, the digital payment tool developed by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, has for the first time outgrown credit cards to be the most preferred way to go shopping, while cash is the least favored. 

Hoogewerf said he foresees China's luxury industry will reach new peaks over the next five years. 

More than 90 percent of the interviewees adopted a positive attitude toward China's economy over the next two years, saying they were confident or extremely confident about prospects.

More in the China Daily.

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Why Canada (and others) should help catch corrupt officials - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

China has been claiming huge success in their "fox hunt", an effort to retrive corrupt officials who fled abroad to escape prosecution. Canada was a main safe haven for them. Business analyst Shaun Rein explains in the Globe&Mail why helping China is a good idea, despite misgivings about the country´s judicial system.

The Globe&Mail:

“China likes to use trade to favour countries who are being nice to them, and when they are not nice, they are punished,” said Shaun Rein, founder of China Market Research Group. In that respect, he said, Ottawa is being savvy by engaging in discussions with Beijing. But many international law experts and diplomats warn that Fox Hunt is fraught with many tripwires, beginning with China’s opaque — if not brutal — legal system where the charges originate... 

“Some Canadians might think, do we want these kinds of people living here?” said Mr. Rein, who is also author of The End of Cheap China. “A lot of these people are rotten.” Mr. Rein also suggested that the deal is not as one-sided as it seems. By signing a reciprocation deal, Canadian officials can better track who is living and working in Canada and not paying taxes.

More in the Globe&Mail.

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Private companies are coming under scrutiny - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

China campaign against corruption is no longer limited to state-owned companies and organizations, but increasingly turns against private companies too. A logical development, tells China rich list founder Rupert Hoogewerf in the Financial Times in an article about Fosun founder Guo Guangchang.

The Financial Times:

Though Guo has now reappeared and no charges have been made against him, the worry for China’s entrepreneurial billionaires remains the same: that the once sweet relationship between them and the party is starting to sour. 

“Everyone is aware that you are subservient to the government,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chief researcher at Hurun. 

According to Hoogewerf, Guo’s disappearance has yet to scare all private businessmen into looking over their shoulders for Wang Qishan’s inspection teams. He notes, however, that business success and political exposure are closely linked. “There comes a point when you become part of the establishment,” he says.

More in the Financial Times.

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Only one percent of China´s billionaires incarcerated - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

Guo Guangchang was the latest of China´s tycoons to get in trouble with the authorities. But the number of billionaires getting into the anti-corruption net is actually pretty low, says Hurun China Rich List founder Rupert Hoogewerf to Reuters. Lower than the number of government officials.

Reuters:

Just over one percent of Chinese billionaires identified by the Hurun Report as the country's richest over the past 17 years have been jailed, charged or even executed mainly for bribery, embezzlement or economy-related crimes, the publication said. 

On its website, the Hurun Report said 35 of the more than 3,000 billionaires that have featured on its annual Hurun Rich List, dubbed by local media as a "slaughter list" since it was launched in 1999, have run into trouble with the law. 

The biggest number - 11 - were real estate tycoons, the report said, followed by nine finance industry executives. Shanghai and Beijing were home to most of the offenders, who on average were sentenced to jail at age 47 for 10 years, the report added. 

Hurun founder Rupert Hoogewerf told Reuters the number of billionaire offenders was lower than the number of government officials and executives at state-owned enterprises who have been arrested or are under investigation for corruption.

More at Reuters.

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Arrest Fosun chair shocks private sector - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

The surprise arrest of China´s Warren Buffet, Guo Guangchang, the chairman of Fosun international, has shocked the private sector, tells Rupert Hoogewerf, founder of the Hurun China Rich List at the International Business Times.

The International Business Times:

Guo’s disappearance comes as the Chinese government continues a stringent anti-corruption campaign, which has brought down thousands of officials over the past three years, including Zhou Yongkang, China’s former security chief and a former member of the Communist Party’s ruling standing committee. As the scope of the investigation has broadened, officials from several leading universities and some of China’s top stock brokerages have recently been detained. 

“The news about Guo Guangchang is a Force 9 earthquake for China’s private sector,” Rupert Hoogewerf, head of Shanghai-based research group Hurun Report, which tracks China’s wealthy, told International Business Times. 

“If confirmed it would be the first time such an influential entrepreneur has been investigated,” he said. “Guo is a widely respected businessman in China, and is seen as a scholarly figure, and something of a thought leader. And Fosun has had a major international impact.” 

Hoogewerf noted that Guo is a member of the advisory body to China’s legislature, and a former delegate to the legislature itself, and is deputy head of the influential businessmen’s association of Zhejiang province, of which Alibaba founder Jack Ma is the current chairman. Private entrepreneurs have become increasingly influential in China in recent years -- but some experts say many remain anxious about their position in society, about the Communist Party's attitude toward them, and the security of investments. This is seen as one factor in the large overseas investments by wealthy Chinese individuals in recent years. 

Fosun is certainly increasingly well-connected internationally. Patrick Zhong, Fosun Group's senior managing director and head of global investment, spoke at a recent conference in Shanghai about arranging a dinner for "my friend George Osborne," the U.K. chancellor of the Exchequer, during his recent visit to China. Zhong described Fosun as a “trailblazer” in China’s attempt to build global brands.

More at the International Business Times.

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Anti-corruption campaign hampers financial reforms - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

The anti-corruption campaign has hit China´s financial industry midships, and is now in the process of derailing the announced reforms, warns financial analyst Sara Hsu in the Diplomat, despite China´s inclusion into the IMF currency basket and the lifting of the deposit interest rate ceiling.

Sara Hsu:

The corruption crackdown in the financial industry may represent a large setback in the eyes of foreign financial specialists. Reforms appeared to be on track for some time, with the lifting of the deposit interest rate ceiling and China’s inclusion in the IMF benchmark SDR, enhancing the extent of marketization in the financial industry. 

However, the pervasive investigation and purge of rule violators underscores the presence of the Party and the State in this sector, and the shortcomings of the rule of law which would help to keep offensive activity in check. 

Moreover, financial executives have found that they are being punished for financial practices that were condoned or only lightly punished during the stock market upswing. Equity swaps, for example, had been permitted in good times, but were soon criticized as conditions worsened. Margin lending was a practice that had been overlooked for some time, but under the threat of a stock slump and the later corruption crackdown, has now been vilified. Well-functioning markets struggle to arise under a regulatory business cycle that loosens or fails to enforce regulations in the upswing and strongly punishes market excesses in the downswing. The uncertainty and climate of fear and repression created by this type of crackdown is a market killer, ultimately working against the aims of China’s reform program. 

The solution to halting the negative market sentiments caused by China’s ongoing corruption investigation into the financial industry is to swiftly wrap up the investigations with as little fallout as possible. The disappearances of top executives has had one of the most harmful impacts on the industry, and the practice must become more transparent if markets are to thrive.

More in the Diplomat

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How the anti-corruption drive hits foreign firms - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Previous political campaigns in China mostly fizzled out after a few months, but the anti-corruption drive - started by President Xi Jinping is staying. How is this affecting foreign companies? New York Times journalist Ian Johnson explains what has changed in China.

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Strategies to survive the anti-corruption drive - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

The anti-corruption campaign by President Xi Jinping has hit entertainment and the gift industry hard over the past years, tells Hurun Rich List founder Rupert Hoogewerf in the Financial Review and details the fallout.  “We have seen the emergence of the so-called affordable luxury brands like Coach or Michael Kors."

The Financial Review:

Rupert Hoogewerf, publisher of the Hurun Report, which chronicles the lives and spending patterns of China’s wealthy and is best known for its annual rich list, estimates the money doled out for gifts has fallen 30 per cent over the past two years. “The biggest impact of the corruption crackdown has been on the gifting and entertainment industry,” he says. 

As officials reined in their travel and spending, star-rated hotels across the country began to suffer. After reporting a combined profit for 2012 of 5 billion yuan, hotels saw their income tumble into negative territory just a year later, with a 2.1 billion yuan loss, according to the China Tourism Academy. Remarkably, some hotels even sought to lose a star so they could meet the strict new accommodation guidelines of government departments.... 

Companies are already responding. Casinos, luxury goods retailers, hotels and restaurants are all shaping their business strategies around a new type of consumer, the “premium mass-market” one. “We have seen the emergence of the so-called affordable luxury brands like Coach or Michael Kors,” says Hoogewerf. “These brands have seen huge growth.” 

Those at the higher end are also adapting. Earlier this year, Chanel surprised the Chinese market, reducing prices by more than 20 per cent on three of its most popular bags. It became the first big luxury brand to standardise prices between Europe and Asia, citing a weak euro, which had exacerbated the already sizeable price difference for those markets. The Chanel move was quickly followed by Gucci and watchmakers Patek Philippe and Tag Heuer. None of them used the word “discount”. For Gucci it was about running down old stock, while the others used words like “price-equalisation”.

More in the Financial Review.

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Anti-corruption campaign hurts economy - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The anti-corruption campaign by president Xi Jinping has started to hurt the economy, tells business analyst Shaun Rein at CNN. Government officials and billionaires have become so afraid, very few decisions are being made.

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Also land sales now scrutinized - Sara Hsu

+Sara Hsu 

President Xi Jinping anti-corruption drive has opened a new front as land sales by local governments are surveyed by the central government, notes financial analyst Sara Hsu in TripleCrisis, and she applauds the move. Much of the social unrest in the past years has been caused by those transaction, where citizens often lost from greedy officials.

Sara Hsu:

Local governments receive a portion of value added and corporate taxes collected in their region, as well as all personal income and business taxes, but this has proven insufficient to generate a steady rate of GDP growth.  In order to combat this problem, officials have used rural residents’ land both as a source of revenue and as collateral in taking out loans via local government financing vehicles.  In this way, they have access to a major asset, unimproved land that promises to gain in value. 

After the initial impact of the global financial crisis, the growth of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) increased, and land takings, land collateral, and land development played a major role in for various localities in securing credit. Local government financing vehicles are entities at an arms’ length from the local government, but that receive an implicit guarantee from local governments for receiving land revenues.  Land was used as collateral in obtaining loans from financial institutions, and land taken from farmers was used in large property and infrastructure development projects.  Due to the sudden surge in LGFV indebtedness and the associated money flowing from the use of land as collateral and property in development, it is likely that corrupt activities with respect to land also increased. 

Land takings by government officials have had a highly negative effect on rural residents.  In the past decade, the practice of rural land grabs and resales worsened the predicament of farmers, whose only asset is land.  This issue has ignited protests throughout China in recent years, even leading in some cases to self-immolation.  Rural residents who have lost their land in this process have found themselves plunged into the ranks of the urban unemployed, with even lower standards of living and a bleak future.

More in TripleCrisis.

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Are you looking for more trends in China for 2015? Check out our 7 China trends for 2015.

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