No fast end to the trade war - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in Argentina generates some hope, but economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, does not expect a fast end to the ongoing trade war between the world's largest economies, he tells at NPR.

NPR:

ARTHUR KROEBER: I think people in the U.S. government are just, like, fed up with all of the WTO commitments that China made and then essentially evaded where they promised to do this, that and the other thing, and then basically did nothing. 

SCHMITZ: Arthur Kroeber is author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs To Know." He says he's not holding out hope for a deal between the U.S. and China anytime soon. 

KROEBER: There's a very strong feeling, I think, throughout many aspects of the U.S. government that China is not a trustworthy interlocutor. They've made commitments that are not meaningful and that they don't follow through on and that it is just not worth having more conversations. 

SCHMITZ: Kroeber calls the notion that Trump and Xi will reach a breakthrough at the G-20 a big nothing burger, and he expects U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent on the rst day of 2019 as scheduled. Time is running out for negotiations between the two sides. China's lead trade negotiator, Liu He, has just announced he'll visit Germany in the days leading up to the G-20, making it increasingly likely the U.S. and China will not be negotiating a deal anytime soon.

More at NPR.

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Mr. Trump cannot outsmart history - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

In the trade war between China and the US, president Trump tries to outsmart history, says investor Jim Rogers, author of A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing. That is not going to work, and we will all suffer in the big melt up, he says.

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This trade war is insane - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

China is not going to bend over for Donald Trump, they have nobody to answer to but themselves, says Asia investor Jim Rogers, author of Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets. "This trade war is insane to start with," he adds.

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US companies not ready to leave China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

One of the purposes of Trump's trade war is convincing US companies to leave China. But they are not yet ready to move, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in the Channel News Asia. And when they move, they might before countries like Vietnam over the US, he adds.

Channels News Asia:

The trade hawks are cleverly using targeted tariffs to make it more difficult for companies to export from China.

(US Trade Representative)“Lighthizer wants US corporations to move into other locations,” says Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics. His Beijing-based research group has clients who are considering doing just that, though no one has yet pulled the trigger. 

“Vietnam is the obvious alternative but there are still too many potholes,” he says. Companies “don’t want to be the one to fill in the potholes. They want to wait for others to pioneer and then see if it makes sense to move.”

More at the Channel News Asia.

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How the US is becoming nastier in the US-China trade war - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Those who hope worst is over in the trade war the US is conducting against China might be very wrong, wrote economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, last week, according to Goldseek.com.

Goldseek.com:

Gavekal’s Arthur Kroeber pointed out in a bulletin this week (which Over My Shoulder members can read here) “the forces pawing the ground for a fight with China are far stronger, and the reins on them far weaker, than was the case in the NAFTA and trans-Atlantic scuffles.”  

He also points out that US businesses with China exposure are caught in the middle and not trying to fight the White House on this. 

Kroeber also highlighted this Axios report that the Trump administration is planning a major broadside against China in the next few weeks. That means the relief markets are presently feeling may not last long.

More in Goldseek.com.

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Trump focuses trade war on China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The new trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada (USMCA)  excluded possible free-trade agreements between the three with China. Trump has its hands free to focus his trade war on China, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, at the South China Morning Post. 

The South China Morning Post:

After US-imposed tariffs on an additional US$200 billion worth of Chinese products last month and China’s subsequent rejection of a US invitation to hold talks to ease the dispute, Chinese President Xi Jinping toured his country’s northern rust-belt region, sending a message that China would have to rely on itself for future development. 

Arthur Kroeber, research head and co-founder of the economic consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a note on Tuesday that the USMCA may put an end to Trump’s trade position of “picking fights with anyone and everyone”. Washington, he said, would focus its fire on the nation it perceives as the real trade enemy: China. 

“The US has confined its economic warfare to a single battlefield, but the fight will be a long one,” Kroeber said.

More at the South China Morning Post.

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Why US firms cannot just leave China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The argument of the Trump administration is simple: if you want to avoid tariffs, leave China and come back to the US. That is too simple, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, at the Asia Times.

Asia Times:

There are myriad other case studies that bely US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s oft-stated advisory: if you want to avoid our import penalties, make things at home. To amplify the point, regulators increased scrutiny of Chinese companies investing in America and US ones selling technology to the mainland. This choose-us-or-them policy has many problems. 

One, Kroeber says, is that US companies have more than $250 billion of direct investments in China, ginning up nearly $500 billion in mainland sales each year. 

“For many companies, China is their biggest and fastest-growing market. In a growing number of sectors, it is simply not a viable business strategy to shun the China market.” If an American multinational isn’t there, it will lose market share and profits, running afoul of shareholders. Extrapolate this dynamic a bit further, and the rising stock market Trump touts on a daily basis might not be so vibrant.

More at the Asia Times.

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Mexico trade deal puts more pressure on China - Wang Haiyan

Wang Haiyan

US president Trump closed a trade deal with Mexico, a minor victory, but putting more pressure on the trade negotiations with China, says business analyst Wang Haiyan at CGTN. For the time being, Trump can afford to play tough on China, she says.

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Why the tariffs are not here to stay - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The trade war between the US and China has been heating up, but - says business analyst Shaun Rein and author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order - they are basically negotiation tools, not here to stay. Where Donald Trump is right, and where he is wrong, tells Rein in an interview at Marketplace.

Marketplace:

So you don't think these U.S. tariffs and Chinese counter tariffs today are here to stay? 

I view these tariffs as a negotiating ploy by President Trump to try to force the Chinese to open up their market better for American companies. Because frankly, Trump is right to criticize China. It's very difficult for American companies in the auto sector or in financial services to sell into the China market, because there's a lot of regulatory barriers. Good luck if you're a technology company. However, I think he's wrong for talking about the trade imbalance. Instead, he should be talking about reciprocity and allowing American companies the same rights in China that America grants Chinese companies when they try to invest and operate in the United States. 

All right so tariffs are a negotiating tactic. That conjures the image of this being a cool, calm, collected game of chess on both sides: Washington and Beijing. But the thing is some say the trade war started this morning, and in a war, it's not always calm or controllable or rational. 

Trump needs to be careful that he doesn't go too far and cross a red line and he's very close to doing that right now. President Xi, the president of China, is taking a much longer view than Trump because China's presidency doesn't have term limits. And President Xi is enjoying, like, 90 percent support from the Chinese population. He feels he can take a very strong line against Trump. And he also wants to indicate to his neighbors and the rest of the world that China is the new superpower that they need to get close to. 

So Trump should push, but he can't go too far, because at the end of the day, it's the American consumer who's going to get hurt the most. Because products that are made in China — from Apple products to Nike ones — are going to get expensive, and be more expensive on the shelves of Walmart for everyday American consumers.

More at Marketplace.

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The dangers of Trump's divisive economic policies - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

Making sense out of US president Donald Trump's economic policies has become impossible, even for the most seasoned observers, like Harry Broadman. For Forbes he tries to make sense out of the damage Trump has caused up to now, and the decades it will cost to repair that damage.

Harry Broadman:

With every passing day it’s getting increasingly difficult to not overstate the potentially profound corrosive effects on the opportunities and risks for continued growth in the U.S. and across the globe of the Trump Administration’s handling of international economic policy. As in his campaign, the President has been successfully—at least to date—pursuing a divide and conquer strategy domestically and internationally to try to achieve his goals. The result is an absence of a robust set of checks and balances to ensure that the best economic interests of the U.S. and the world will be served. 

The state of affairs is a triple whammy of divisiveness at home and abroad: the overarching direction and content of many of Trump’s policies is pitting firms in one sector against those in another, and business interests against consumers and workers--a strategy that will serve to distort and shrink the size of the economic pie, not one towards enhancing overall prosperity; the White House’s policy-making process of "America-go-it alone" on a bilateral basis is out of whack with both the actual multinational production structure of world markets and the companion long-standing multilateral protocol of teaming up with friendly countries through existing international alliances (for which the U.S. was the chief architect) to smooth out bad conduct by national actors who don’t play by global rules; and the seemingly moment-by-moment upheavals, in-fighting and reversals of the Administration’s stance on the economy is generating unprecedented policy uncertainty, which is only serving to destabilize long-term investment incentives (running counter to the objectives of the White House's earlier push for cutting corporate tax rates). 

The unmistakable substance of the Administration’s economic policy—echoing of course, Trump’s slogan of "making America great again"—is one of both significant protectionism and castigating those outside of the United States as the primary source of any woes evident in the domestic economy. 

It’s fundamentally counterproductive for Trump to ignore that there is in fact plenty of blame to be had at home if he truly wants to achieve his stated objectives. And, finger-pointing at foreigners, no matter how well it might sell at rallies or on television, distracts attention from where it needs to be focused.

More at Harry Broadman's column here republished with the kind permission of the author.

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Why threatening China on trade does not make sense - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

The US administration, followed by retaliation from Beijing, is heading for a full-scale trade war. Financial analyst Sara Hsu explains why threatening China is only going to make the fallout worse, not better, as the White House seems to be clueless about how China will react.

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The US just cannot stand China is doing better - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Despite the fast ups and downs in the relations between the US and China, the fundamental animosity between the world's largest economies is just not going away, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® to the South China Morning Post. Despite Donald Trump's easing of the fight with ZTE, he does not expect a huge change in the tensions.

The South China Morning Post:

Some observers like Arthur Kroeber, research head at Gavekal Dragonomics, feel that relations between the countries are unlikely to improve. 

“It is possible that all this back-and-forth [visits and talks] will allow a reduction or delay in the tariffs that the two sides have threatened … but it will also be cosmetic.” 

He said the rivalry between the US and China is not principally about trade, and is only marginally about Donald Trump. It is really about China’s emergence over the last five years. 

“These developments have caused the American security and foreign policy establishment to conclude that the US is now in a long-run strategic competition with China for technological and military superiority, and for dominance of the global economic system,” he said.

More in the South China Morning Post. Arthur 

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Why the trade talks will lead nowhere - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The Trump team has started trade talks in Beijing, but it is very unlikely they will get anywhere, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in CBS. The internal divisions in the US team are only a part of the problems to gain ground, he says.

CBS:

The talks are unlikely to accomplish much, noted Arthur Kroeber, head of research for Gavekal Research. The American "coalition of trade warriors and national security hawks" agree that China poses a threat to U.S. dominance, yet they haven't formed a "coherent strategy," he said in a research note. 

"Above all, the professionals are hamstrung by President Donald Trump, who absurdly insists that the main goal should be a US$100 billion reduction in the bilateral trade deficit," he said. 

He added, "The team-of-rivals delegation brings differing objectives to Beijing. Mnuchin would probably like to cut a deal on tariffs and deficit reduction and focus on improving market access for US firms in the lucrative China market."

More on CBS.

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US tries to win a trade war it lost decades ago - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The Trump team trying to negotiate the next phase of a trade war has arrived in Beijing. But Donald Trump is trying to win a trade war it lost already decades ago, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to Marketplace.

Marketplace:

Shaun Rein with China Market Research Group and author of “The War for China’s Wallet” said China is no longer stealing jobs from the United States, so he said if Trump hopes to move jobs back to America it is an “unwinnable war.” 

“That ship has sailed decades ago,” he said. 

He said Chinese officials will give enough “economic crumbs” to the Trump administration to placate it, but China will not simply unblock Facebook or Twitter and allow U.S. internet giants to operate freely because the leadership is keen on controlling information.

More at Marketplace.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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China's answer in US trade war: carefully calibrated - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

China's is sending carefully calibrated messages to the US, as US president Donald Trump is moving to a trade war, tells economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

Arthur Kroeber, research head and co-founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, said China surely has “an equally specific, but longer”, list of targets ready to go when Washington finally unveils its Section 301 tariff list. 

“The strength of this response was carefully calibrated to send a clear message that Beijing will stand up to the US, but will not try to escalate the spat into a confrontation that could seriously threaten the global trading system,” Kroeber said.

More at the South China Morning Post.

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Trump's trade policies good for the year 1818 - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

US president Donald Trump's bilateral approach for solving trade issues would have worked in 1818, not in 2018, writes China veteran Harry Broadman in the Gulf News. The US do have serious trade problems with China, but the US would be better off if Trump would be able to create more alliances.

Harry Broadman:

US President Donald Trump sees international trade negotiations as if he was living in 1818 when commerce between countries more often than not was conducted bilaterally. He’s proclaimed on several occasions that he can get a far better bargain taking up trade agreements with other heads of state on a one-to-one basis. 

Indeed, the US Negotiator-in-Chief is “Bilateral Man”, hardly surprising for someone who cut his teeth doing one-off commercial real estate deals within the confines of New York City. 

But this is 2018, and trade consummated even between two countries generally is comprised of multiple intermediate transactions mediated across several national borders. 

Hence, that is why the bedrock rules governing trade agreements today — embodied in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the successor organisation to the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), which was founded in 1947 — are multilateral in nature and negotiated among sovereign, not business, entities. 

It would appear that the modern — and yes, complex — system of trade agreements is far outside of Trump’s comfort zone, perhaps even his understanding. 

As indicated by his handling of the trade problems between the US and China — which are indeed serious and haven’t been dealt with sufficiently by earlier administrations — his anathema towards building coalitions among the 162 other countries that are WTO members to improve governance of international trade exposes all of us to significant risks.

More in the Gulf News.

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Is the Trump approach of China working? I do not think so - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

US president Donald Trump has been going aggressively after China as a trade partner. But is it working? Political analyst Sara Hsu does not think so, she explains in Forbes."From the Boston tea party to the Smoot Hawley tariffs imposed during the Great Depression, protectionist measures have always imposed far higher costs than benefits."

Sara Hsu:

The aggressive Trump stance hasn't worked because Chinese diplomacy is nuanced and officials do not use threats as a negotiation tactic. The Chinese generally negotiate through reciprocity, which is why we saw Xi Jinping making concessions on automobile tariffs. Within the philosophy of Confucianism, Chinese negotiators attempt to avoid conflict and save face, or show mutual respect. Relationship building is essential, and the bonds of the relationship are not meant to be broken. 

If pushed, however, the Chinese often use silence or long negotiation processes as a response tactic. Chinese negotiators may also attempt to use a response that targets the weakness of the counterparty, especially if the counterparty is not viewed as civilized or friendly. The Chinese Thirty-Six Strategems calls for using specific tactics to deal with a hostile party, which including "wait at leisure while the enemy labors" and "watch the fires burning across the river." Chinese officials indeed waited to respond to Trump's bluster and hoped that he would wear himself down by griping and tweeting about his issues with the Asian nation. 

China's strategy appears to be working in the sense that the nation has, to some extent, benefited from Trump's aggressive mentality. Its diplomatic response has been calculated and staid. As Trump rants and raves about China, Chinese officials have emphasized the need for cooperation. It couldn't be clearer who is speaking the voice of reason. If Trump had a better knowledge of economics, he would realize that history has shown that trade showdowns don't work. From the Boston tea party to the Smoot Hawley tariffs imposed during the Great Depression, protectionist measures have always imposed far higher costs than benefits.

More in Forbes.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form. 

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The Boao forum: a stepping stone in China's global policies - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The ongoing Boao Forum in Hainan never attracted as much attention as this year, as China's global aspirations expand, and US president Donald Trump is heading for a trade war, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

Shaun Rein, the founder of the China Market Research Group, said this year’s event was more significant than ever because of the “potential for a massive trade war between the US and China”. 

“And there is a lot of concern about whether China is going to be open for foreign business, and what [incentives] it might dole out to Europe and Asia as a way to keep the US down,” he said... 

Rein, who is also the author of The War for China’s Wallet, said he expected China to try and lure countries attending Boao with “sweeteners”, adding that he expected there to be a spike in new trade deals between China and its guests as Beijing sought to show the world that it did not need the US. 

“There is an opportunity for Xi to show that it’s business as normal, and calm a market that has been stirred up by what Trump is doing,” he said.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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Trump needs allies to challenge China on trade - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

US president Donald Trump is not necessarily wrong when confronting China on trade, but he has to realize he cannot solve the issue by himself, without allies, writes China veteran Harry Broadman in Forbes. "Mr. Trump’s insistence on handling China in a U.S. ‘go-it-alone’ manner is just plain wrong-headed."

Harry Broadman:

President Donald Trump and his U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, are more than correct that the Chinese do not abide by fair, systematic, transparent and market-based rules for global trade. But the tit-for-tat approach the White House is currently taking to create disincentives to try to alter China’s behavior—centered on applying higher and higher and more expansive tariffs to Chinese exports to the U.S.—is not only self-defeating, it is actually aimed at a largely irrelevant facet of the real and far deeper problem at hand. 

Beijing has not fully effectuated the changes in its domestic governing economic institutions—what we economists call ‘behind-the-border’ reforms—it agreed with the world trading community 17 years ago it would institute. Simply put, Mr. Trump and his economic team are ignoring the proverbial 1.3-billion-ton ‘Gorilla in the Room’:  China has not lived up to some of the most important commitments made in 2001 when the country’s leadership sought, and was granted, accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). 

At the same time, Mr. Trump’s insistence on handling China in a U.S. ‘go-it-alone’ manner is just plain wrong-headed.  Rather than using the ‘power of collective action’ and building a coalition of other major trading powers—many of whom like the U.S. have been exposed to China conducting trade inconsistent with prevailing norms—Mr. Trump’s efforts will have him falling flat on his face. 

Yes, although so far Mr. Trump is engaging in his classic blustering, bluffing negotiation style—you’d think we’d all catch on by now—the dustup he has generated is causing serious economic dislocation on the ground in China and the U.S.  More pernicious is the extensive rotting out of the credibility of the U.S. on the world economic stage.

More in Forbes (here reprinted with the kind permission of the author)

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Mixed chances for a political backlash against US companies - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

The trade war between China and the US is heating up, raising fears for a political backlash against US firms in China. Business analyst Ben Cavender feels it will vary very much according to the position of companies in China, he tells Reuters.

Reuters:

The highest profile corporate casualty was South Korean conglomerate Lotte Group, which saw its plans for mega shopping complexes indefinitely suspended and nearly all of its Lotte Mart stores in China shut for much of the year over alleged fire safety issues. Ben Cavender, an analyst at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, said U.S. businesses in China such as Starbucks were more firmly entrenched in the country, making them less likely to receive similar treatment. 

“A lot of the brands are employing Chinese workers, essentially they’re Chinese companies in their own right,” he said. However, he warned that everyday consumption goods could nonetheless be hit. “You can see consumers saying we’re not going to buy a Ford , or a GM product, and we’re going to buy a European product or a Chinese product instead,” he said.

More in Reuters.

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